Ramifications of and lead-up to 1997 Conservative victory following 1992 win

[CTTeller]

The Conservatives winning 1997 is pretty much impossible, so long as the Conservatives win 1992. That being said, what torrent of shit would it take to get Labour to lose the election, and what are the ramifications for afterwards. I suspect Blair wouldn't hang around and so perhaps Brown has his turn, or at least tries to have his, and Major probably won't be PM for the full term. Could Major pull off privatising London Underground with a decreased majority, or minority arrangement?

(Addendum, I could see Bernie Grant as the SCG candidate in this election, though the chances of them getting anywhere too is slim to none)

 

[Yokai Man]

The Conservatives winning 1997 is pretty much impossible, so long as the Conservatives win 1992. That being said, what torrent of shit would it take to get Labour to lose the election, and what are the ramifications for afterwards. I suspect Blair wouldn't hang around and so perhaps Brown has his turn, or at least tries to have his, and Major probably won't be PM for the full term. Could Major pull off privatising London Underground with a decreased majority, or minority arrangement?

(Addendum, I could see Bernie Grant as the SCG candidate in this election, though the chances of them getting anywhere too is slim to none)

Mihai Florin Nahoriac is somehow right and Blair is friends with him and agrees with him politically since the late Seventies at least,meaning that Blair was secretly working for the Securitate and is a Ceausescu style National Communist who is only pretending to be a centrist,with this being found out in the middle of the campaign and Blair forced to resign/arrested for treason.

 

[Kimkatya]

Mihai Florin Nahoriac is somehow right and Blair is friends with him and agrees with him politically since the late Seventies at least,meaning that Blair was secretly working for the Securitate and is a Ceausescu style National Communist who is only pretending to be a centrist,with this being found out in the middle of the campaign and Blair forced to resign/arrested for treason.

you've heard of turkish star wars, now get ready for ROMANIAN AGENT LAVENDER

 

[Coiler]

The Conservatives winning 1997 is pretty much impossible, so long as the Conservatives win 1992. That being said, what torrent of shit would it take to get Labour to lose the election, and what are the ramifications for afterwards.

Some (ahistorical) gigantic national crisis (as in a Fuldapocalypse-level war, COVID-level pandemic, or March 11 2011-level natural disaster), where they still go ahead with an election and win just because of perceived stability?

I dunno, it's the only way I think that could even potentially happen.

 

[TruthOfAngels]

I was going to say ‘Tony Blair caught on video fucking a goat’ but I don’t even that would have done it in 1997. Pushed the majority into double figures, maybe.

 

[RobinCarmody]

You do get Blairites who say the Tories might have won had John Smith lived or even if Gordon Brown had replaced him. I have never, ever believed any of them for one second, but it's amazing how strong that idea remains in certain circles.

 

[Elektronaut]

You do get Blairites who say the Tories might have won had John Smith lived or even if Gordon Brown had replaced him. I have never, ever believed any of them for one second, but it's amazing how strong that idea remains in certain circles.

I don't think it's very rational with hindsight in 2021, but I also think it's understandable that some people who went through the lived experience of losing four elections in a row, including a one where Labour was fully expected to win and then didn't, would be hyper-anxious about 'it was a given'.

Less chartiably, accepting the opposite also draws the existence of New Labour into serious question so people who were architects of New Labour like Mandelson and Gould are heavily invested in that line of argument.