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President Gennady Zyuganov?

RyanF

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How could the candidate of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Gennady Zyuganov, have won the 1996 Russian presidential election - and what would be the consequences for Russia both domestically and on the international scene at his victory?

OTL Zyuganov placed second behind only the incumbent Boris Yeltsin with 32.5% of vote to Yeltsin's 35.8%; in the second round, held little over two weeks later, Yeltsin would win re-election with 54.4% of the vote to Zyuganov's 40.7%.

Going into the election Yeltsin's prospects for re-election appeared poor. The economy was still in poor shape it had been in almost throughout his first term, the Communists had won the most seats in the 1995 Duma election, and his handling of the Dagestan hostage crisis was widely seen as poor. At the start of the election Yeltsin was placed fifth amongst candidates in polls; and when Zyuganov appeared at the World Economic Forum in February 1996 he was treated by Western leaders as likely the next President of Russia.

Between the first and second rounds of voting, Yeltsin managed an adroit political manoeuvre in appointing fellow candidate in the first round Alexander Lebed to the position of National Security Advisor in exchange for his support in the second round. Lebed had put in an unexpectedly strong showing in the first round, coming third behind Yeltsin and Zyuganov with 14.7% of the vote, and his endorsement likely swung many of his voters into Yeltsin's camp.

Lebed is highly unlikely to endorse Zyuganov over Yeltsin, and between them the President and General were rumoured to have informally agreed such a strategy for the second round in the months before the election. Yeltsin was also able to overcome having to disappear from campaigning due to a heart attack in the run up to the second round - accomplished by maintaining his condition as a secret and parading a "virtual Yeltsin" out in news reports and elsewhere on television. If this information were to leak it might be enough to swing many voters away from him. Probably as many to Against All as to Zyuganov.

Another possibility is that Yeltsin sticks to the originally devised campaign of appealing to the nationalistic sentiment within Russia in order to directly appeal to the votes of Zyuganov and LDPR candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky. This was changed soon to have him campaign as the lesser of two evils against the Communists. If the original strategy had been followed it might have fallen flat against Lebed, Zhirinovsky, and Zyuganov. Enough to have a very different second round.

How would the election in Russia of a Communist President be regarded on the international stage a mere five years after the collapse of the Soviet Union? With some trepidation, or from Zyuganov's reception in Switzerland might he have been seen as someone with whom business could be done to an extent?

Domestically in Russia, would the 1993 constitution have been amended to give less power to the presidency? Or even abolish it outright? What would be the reaction of the already entrenched oligarchs? Their control of much of the media did wonders for Yeltsin before the second round, might a campaign be spearheaded by their outlets that Zyuganov was not a legitimate President?

And finally, what of the First Deputy Chairman of the Government of Saint Petersburg? Or maybe the new government changes the name back to Leningrad. Either way, the man was brought on to the national scene by the Yeltsin government in his second term, and he would go on to succeed him as President. A position he still holds.
 
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