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PM's Election Maps And Stuff Thread

Excellent work. I'm sporadically working on more recent London election maps myself, and one of the things I find most fascinating is when there are significant differences (and when there aren't) between different types of elections. I'm mostly working on 2021 at the moment and it is fascinating how much Bailey ran ahead of the Tories (or Khan ran behind Labour) when comparing the mayoral to the London Assembly election held simultaneously.

Also interesting that Croydon Central was less Conservative than the two northern Croydon constituencies at this point, I remember that demographic change is very visible over time back when I did a map series for @Meadow 's newspaper (checks notes) ELEVEN YEARS AGO.
Indeed. It's a very variable place in general when it comes to national trends- see 1987 and 1992 where parts voted more Tory than the preceding election against the national trend (they weren't far off taking Newham South in 1992, which is beyond baffling to me).

And I noticed that with Croydon too, it's a change that's rather overlooked compared to places like Streatham and Harrow.
 
Indeed. It's a very variable place in general when it comes to national trends- see 1987 and 1992 where parts voted more Tory than the preceding election against the national trend (they weren't far off taking Newham South in 1992, which is beyond baffling to me).

And I noticed that with Croydon too, it's a change that's rather overlooked compared to places like Streatham and Harrow.
I do wonder what would have happened if the Greater London Council wasn’t dissolved or if Andrew McIntosh wasn’t forced out, what the reaction would be on the regional and national level I guess?
 
I do wonder what would have happened if the Greater London Council wasn’t dissolved or if Andrew McIntosh wasn’t forced out, what the reaction would be on the regional and national level I guess?
I actually started a Wikibox TL on the Other Place based on a continuing GLC- iirc I had the Tories hold on with Liberal supply in exchange for ditching Horace Cutler in 1981, Illtyd Harrington take over from Ken Livingstone and win in 1985, Jeffrey Archer regaining it for the Tories in 1989 (that was partly to make it a bit more colourful!) and then Labour retaking it in 1993. I don't remember if I got any further than that though, but I can look for the links if you're interested.
 
I actually started a Wikibox TL on the Other Place based on a continuing GLC- iirc I had the Tories hold on with Liberal supply in exchange for ditching Horace Cutler in 1981, Illtyd Harrington take over from Ken Livingstone and win in 1985, Jeffrey Archer regaining it for the Tories in 1989 (that was partly to make it a bit more colourful!) and then Labour retaking it in 1993. I don't remember if I got any further than that though, but I can look for the links if you're interested.
That sounds fun. I will say, Illtyd Harrington taking over as Labour Leader/eventual head of the council would have been interesting. On one hand, he’s a bit like Michael Foot, a cuddly soft Leftie type with a beard and would be less threatening (he also wouldn’t make comments about the IRA etc). but also he’s gay (whilst he wasn’t open, open, people knew and just didn’t bring it up) and the London Transport debacle over The Freedom Pass was a policy that he had pushed for, so it would be interesting.
 
That sounds fun. I will say, Illtyd Harrington taking over as Labour Leader/eventual head of the council would have been interesting. On one hand, he’s a bit like Michael Foot, a cuddly soft Leftie type with a beard and would be less threatening (he also wouldn’t make comments about the IRA etc). but also he’s gay (whilst he wasn’t open, open, people knew and just didn’t bring it up) and the London Transport debacle over The Freedom Pass was a policy that he had pushed for, so it would be interesting.
Definitely, yeah. I feel like he'd have less dramatic friction with Thatcher than Livingstone, but you'd still get some sparks. I'm not sure how accurate it'd be, but I had him having a Sturgeon-esque fight with the government over Section 28 (which he sadly also loses).
 
England and Wales religious demographics, 2021 census
I found out the other day the ONS has a nice interactive map of religious populations across the UK in the 2021 census, and I thought it'd be interesting to map it to see what correlations it has with things like social class, ethnicities and politics.
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I can sort of see some, but the trends are quite faint. It seems to show that compared with the US, irreligion is more tied into social class than politics, but that's not really straightforward either- look at how different culturally similar places like the South Wales Valleys and the Midlands mining areas are from places like County Durham, or how much less religious Manchester is than Liverpool.

In general, the north is more religious than the south, but Greater London is surprisingly much more Christian than irreligious outside of the most gentrified boroughs (and notably only the ones immediately north of the City, as Westminster and points west are also surprisingly Christian).

You can sort of see the two demographics that are most irreligious through this map, too. On the one hand, you have very working-class people who see religion as irrelevant to their lives and problems (the mining regions really stand out- also, since Ashfield is majority irreligious, I feel my belief that God's love doesn't reach people who vote for the Leeanderthal has been confirmed.) On the other, you have urban areas where people see religion as irrational and reactionary (places like Brighton, Bristol and Norwich stand out for that).

But yeah, trying to project political trends onto this is hard. One thing I think is a shame is there's no distinction made between Christian denominations, which would probably be helpful to clarify in places like heavily Catholic Merseyside. At least it saved me adding them together to tot up compared to other religions.
 
Honestly it's immigration that's causing that dichotomy. Liverpool's Irish heritage making it more strongly Christian than Manchester, more religious immigrants of all stripes to parts of London. I expect the main reason Leicester shows up as plurality Christian is that many of the younger incoming demographics are very firmly Hindu or Muslim (and very split at that) and so rather than a great mass of young urban agnostics it's the older communities on the suburbs who are more solidly Christian who end up sneaking into the lead.
 
the mining regions really stand out- also, since Ashfield is majority irreligious, I feel my belief that God's love doesn't reach people who vote for the Leeanderthal has been confirmed
Religion in Nottinghamshire was always a weird one I found, having been as a young lad, went to a Church of England School and was for a time, would call myself Christian. I would deem Ashfield equivalent to my experiences where most people would be ‘Church of England Agnostics’ in that most people don’t particularly care about church or god or any of that, but would get rather offended if you said that they weren’t Christian, irreligious or Atheist in beliefs.

Because to not be Christian means you’re one of those people, and we can’t have that now.
 
Honestly it's immigration that's causing that dichotomy. Liverpool's Irish heritage making it more strongly Christian than Manchester, more religious immigrants of all stripes to parts of London. I expect the main reason Leicester shows up as plurality Christian is that many of the younger incoming demographics are very firmly Hindu or Muslim (and very split at that) and so rather than a great mass of young urban agnostics it's the older communities on the suburbs who are more solidly Christian who end up sneaking into the lead.
I had a feeling that was the case with those three cities, but sort of didn't want to assume. I'm under the impression there's also a fairly substantial proportion of immigrants whose ancestors were converted to Christianity in the colonial period that adds to the proportion on top of older suburban white Christians.
Religion in Nottinghamshire was always a weird one I found, having been as a young lad, went to a Church of England School and was for a time, would call myself Christian. I would deem Ashfield equivalent to my experiences where most people would be ‘Church of England Agnostics’ in that most people don’t particularly care about church or god or any of that, but would get rather offended if you said that they weren’t Christian, irreligious or Atheist in beliefs.

Because to not be Christian means you’re one of those people, and we can’t have that now.
That does seem to be a pretty common attitude nowadays tbf, and I'd say it's probably why more people are describing themselves as irreligious on the whole. It's not so much that No One Believes Anymore as that people who already didn't really care in the first place increasingly don't feel any kind of reason to say they do actually on the census, because they don't draw any kind of moral identity from religion so much as things like national identity. IIRC if you look at where people identify as 'British' versus 'English' in England, you can see a closer correlation to politics.
 
That does seem to be a pretty common attitude nowadays tbf, and I'd say it's probably why more people are describing themselves as irreligious on the whole. It's not so much that No One Believes Anymore as that people who already didn't really care in the first place increasingly don't feel any kind of reason to say they do actually on the census, because they don't draw any kind of moral identity from religion so much as things like national identity.
You see a similar thing in America with the "rise of the nones" - one hypothesis is a lot of them marked themselves as believers in surveys because they didn't care about religion but they did care about not being like the Communists. Once the Red Menace became largely history, there wasn't a need to do that.
 
Brittany 2021
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The French regions, constituted in 1956, were originally proposed to become self-governing units by de Gaulle in 1969, as part of his failed reforms to decentralise the country. However, these would have been a different beast to what was eventually created- his proposed Regional Councils were intended as indirectly elected bodies, three-fifths elected by the General Councils (of each department) and two-fifths by municipal councils.

This, along with his proposed Senate reforms, was rejected by not only the left but a fair chunk of his supporters, most prominently Giscard d’Estaing. It strikes me as a pretty undemocratic system, all told, especially considering the departmental councils were basically just overseen by their Prefects at this time. Even so, the boundaries he proposed would stick, and as we’ll talk about in a minute, this had an important consequence for Brittany in particular.

The Mauroy government passed a significant reform decentralising power in a similar way, but a much more democratic one- the Prefects’ powers were overridden by a new system providing the administrative and regional courts to perform checks and balances, the Prefects’ executive powers were transferred to the Presidents of the Departmental Councils, and the regions were created as executives over the sets of departments assigned to them.

Now, Brittany’s regional boundaries were a bit of a sore point, because Nantes was the capital of the Duchy of Brittany and its department, Loire-Atlantique, had been formally separated from Brittany by the Vichy government. Unfortunately for the Bretons, the central government had created the Pays de la Loire region around Nantes to make it into one of France’s métropoles d'équilibre (‘balancing metropolises’- basically its large regional cities) to counterbalance Paris, and so it was seen as closer to the Vendée, Anjou and Maine than the province it had once been the capital of.

The other reason for splitting off Brittany was that there was another city with an increasingly strong claim to being Brittany’s regional capital anyway, namely Rennes. While not as large as Nantes, Rennes rapidly developed during the 20th century, doubling in population between 1901 and 1962 and evolving into a prominent technology hub and a university town (a university which from the 1970s until 2023 was split into two, Rennes 1 and Rennes 2. Which sounds like a much less subtle version of the old university/polytechnic divide the UK has, now I think about it).

So it was that when the regions became proper administrative authorities in 1982, Brittany comprised only four of the five departments that had traditionally made up the region. The Regional Council would also be using quite a different electoral system to the system the Fifth Republic had traditionally used. Initially, in keeping with the then-favoured electoral system of the French left, it used PR, but in 2003, it was reformed into a mixed-majority system.

That system is quite an odd one; like all Fifth Republic elections except 1986, it’s held under a two-round system, and has a threshold to eliminate underperforming parties from the second round (in this case any party getting over 10% of the vote region-wide advances, and any list getting over 5% can combine with an advancing list). No seats are awarded in the first round unless a list gets at least 50% of the vote, and shockingly, since this is France, that doesn’t happen often.

In the second round, whatever list gets the most votes gets a majority bonus (called a prime majoritaire, ‘majority premium’, in French) making up 25% of the votes in most regions, 20% in Martinique and French Guiana and 18% in Corsica, and the remaining 75% of seats get divided proportionally among the parties advancing it to the second round.

To the best of my knowledge, that means 21 of the Regional Council’s 83 seats were assigned to the PS by the prime majoritaire, so I planned to assign these proportionately based on the voteshares and seat allocations by department, only to find that proportionally only 17 seats seem above the threshold of what they would’ve won without it. This is probably just my horrendous maths biting me in the arse again, to be fair; any clarification or corrections would be welcome.

Getting onto the electoral politics of the region, Brittany has gradually become a firmly left-wing region since the 1980s. This is somewhat odd considering it was for centuries one of the biggest strongholds of French Catholicism, but not only has secularised a lot as it has urbanised, its affinity for Christian democracy under the Fourth Republic made it a fairly poor fit for Gaullism once that asserted itself as the dominant side of the French right.

Indeed, this affinity for Christian democracy is said in some scholars’ analysis of French politics, most prominently Le Bras and Todd, to be down to ‘zombie Catholicism’; while its contemporary are more lapsed, they argue, the ideals of Christian democracy make it more sympathetic to contemporary centre-left ideals than the hardline neoliberalism and social conservatism of the right. Of course, this is just one explanation; another might be that the big and growing cities like Rennes and Brest have come to overshadow the conservative countryside and provincial towns like Saint-Malo or Vannes, and a further one might be that growing cultural consciousness of Breton nationalism has manifested in more trust and support for the left in a similar manner to the longtime support of Scotland and Wales for it.

In any case, the 2021 election saw the PS-led coalition La Bretagne avec Loïg (‘Brittany with Loïg’, named after current President of the Regional Council Loïg Chesnais-Girard; apparently the name Loïg doesn’t have any meaning other than sort of sounding Breton) running for re-election, having won an absolute majority in 2015 due to the majority bonus. The alliance includes the PS, PCF, divers gauche politicians and the regionalist Pour le Bretagne! (‘For Brittany!’) party.

They were challenged by an assortment of coalitions, their main opponents being the LR-led coalition Hissons haut la Bretagne (roughly meaning ‘Let’s raise Brittany high’), led by Isabelle le Callennec, the EELV-led coalition Bretagne d’avenir (‘Brittany of the future’) led by Claire Desmares-Poirrier, the RN-led coalition Un Bretagne forte (‘a strong Brittany’) led by Giles Pennelle, the En Marche-led list Nous la Bretagne (‘we Brittany’), which actually didn’t seem to have a leader (possibly because they were part of the government before the election, though they ran separately this time), and the LFI-led list Bretagne Insoumise (‘Brittany unbowed’, but I feel like I don’t really need to translate it) led by Pierre-Yves Caladen.

(On an unrelated note, the auto-translator on Firefox tried to translate all of those names with some spectacular results I want to share- Hissons haut la Bretagne came out as ‘Let’s go out locust Britain’, Bretagne d’avenir as ‘Britain of the future’ and Bretagne Insoumise as ‘Insurmallowed Brittany’!)

The election turned out to be a close race, with the PS-led list topping the polls by only 4 points over the LR-led one and all the aforementioned lists except the LFI one clearing the 10% threshold comfortably. The non-aligned ecologist list Bretagne ma vie (‘Brittany my life’) aligned itself with the PS-led list, having won 6.5% of the vote while the LFI one, despite also clearing the 5% threshold to combine with another list, chose not to do so.

In the second round, the PS list came comfortably ahead with almost 30% of the vote, while the LR list took almost 22% and the EELV one cleared 20%. Both the En Marche and RN lists declined by around 1%, but this was still enough to take 9 and 8 seats respectively. Unusually, while the PS list did receive the premium majoritaire, having lost around 6% of the popular vote from 2015 they only took 40 seats, 2 short of an overall majority.

To the best of my understanding, Chesnais-Girard has regained its majority, which I believe is because the Green list somehow imploded after the election and some groups supporting it joined the government, but again I could be totally wrong. Then again, it is the French Greens, so I think it’s a solid guess.

A little annoyingly, right after finishing mapping the election based on the lists, I realised the French Wikipedia page for the Regional Council tells you exactly who sits for what seat and what party they’re in. But it doesn’t indicate who was elected by the premium majoritaire and it’s unclear how the lists were aligned from my cursory look (besides obviously alternating between men and women, since that’s an electoral provision of the system too), so for now I'm sticking with the division by lists. Though I could go back to try and distinguish it if people are interested.
 
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I had a fun little idea because of a recent Adam Martyn video. I had completely forgotten The Video Collection existed until he made this, at which point I sort of went 'ooh, that's who put out those Top-Cat and Flintstones videos I had as a kid!' That's because the company had the rights to put out a lot of programming for children (I think including some BBC series which the BBC hadn't called dibs on, but mostly non-BBC stuff) on VHS in the UK at the time, and among these were a lot of Hanna-Barbara and Mattel series.

Since I had it on the brain, I felt like making a little homage to the tapes I remember having as a kid with some more recent series I like which The Video Collection very likely would've had the rights to distribute if they'd been around at the time, considering they're owned by the successors of the aforementioned companies. Is it self-indulgent? Yes. Is it alternate history? Sort of, and that's close enough for me.1744233216057.png
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The Cartoon Network and DreamWorks logos are on there for added anachronism, and the weird shape with the slit in the bottom is of course because these were cardboard sleeves rather than plastic clam shell cases. I'm not sure if this was part of why they were able to charge so little for sell-through tapes at all, considering cardboard sleeves for tapes were a common format throughout the 80s I doubt it, but it's accurate to the experience of 5-6 year old me fiddling with the empty box at least.

While I was at it, I also remembered this old fake VHS cover I made ages ago for the first episode of the revived series of Doctor Who (fitting considering it turned 20 a couple of weeks back!). This is actually surprisingly close to reality, because several episodes of Eccleston's run were in fact officially released on VHS- for the internal press market. It's very unlikely any real VHS release would've used the pre-new series formatting for VHS releases like this cover does, but I do find it cute to imagine the BBC putting out an official video release of a whole 1 episode for the rapidly dwindling population of people who were still using VHSs in 2005.

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Apologies if this intermission from my election maps wasn't as interesting to you as to me (I mean, of course it was interesting to me, I got to make something silly with some of my special interests. 😛) As I said, blame credit to Adam Martyn, and also Doctor Who Magazine, for the info.
 
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Should be mentioned that for some reason the voting system for this election was two seats per geographical constituency and two votes per person, meaning that many people just voted straight liberal, and so the liberals would hold both seats in 8 of the 9 constituencies.

Of course nowadays they use the much more sensible (?) system of first-two-past-the-post, which should guarantee at least 50% seats for the right political stripe; not that they let anyone else in these days.
 
Should be mentioned that for some reason the voting system for this election was two seats per geographical constituency and two votes per person, meaning that many people just voted straight liberal, and so the liberals would hold both seats in 8 of the 9 constituencies.
That is the usual system used in British (well, English and Welsh) local elections, and used to be the way Parliament was elected until multi-member constituencies were abolished. It's not surprising to me that the British would export it to HK, they did the same in a lot of other places.
 
That is the usual system used in British (well, English and Welsh) local elections, and used to be the way Parliament was elected until multi-member constituencies were abolished. It's not surprising to me that the British would export it to HK, they did the same in a lot of other places.
I do think they based it off local elections, yes.

It's just something of a backfire for an administration which did not want to empower the liberals at all.
 
UK 1955
It's weird how my motivation to make maps goes sometimes. I've been thinking of trying to make a higher-quality edit of the 1955-74 constituency map using the Wikipedia map as a template and messing with it with GIMP, and tried and gave up several times, but I've finally managed to make one! So I can finally pick up where Max left off on providing higher quality UK election maps than the Boothroyd ones from over a decade and a half ago (or at least I have my own basemap to do it with).

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The UK changed a lot between the 1951 and 1955 elections- most obviously, Queen Elizabeth II's long reign had begun, the economy had finally begun to grow again after the initial tough postwar years, rationing had been brought to an end, and Winston Churchill had finally stood down as Prime Minister for good. All of these factors helped the Tories, despite their small majority in 1951, as the outlook of the country looked positive, the government weren't doing much to disrupt the popular reforms of the welfare state the preceding Labour government had instituted, and Churchill's successor Anthony Eden was more telegenic and at the time quite popular.

It also helped the government that both Labour and the Liberals were not in good shape to capitalise. The animosity between Labour's left and right (the 'Bevanites' of Aneurin Bevan and the 'Gaitskellites' of Hugh Gaitskell) had begun in the last year of the Attlee government and continued into opposition, with Attlee still leading the party partly to unite it and partly because he didn't want his old rival Herbert Morrison taking over. Meanwhile, the Liberals were in a parlous state; almost every MP of theirs at this point (the exception being Jo Grimond, who not coincidentally would take over the leadership a year later) was functionally dependent on the Tories standing aside in their favour, with the main differences between them and the National Liberals being that they weren't actively subsumed into the government.

But with these parties having solid support bases the Tories weren't easily able to penetrate, 1955 was a famously uneventful election. The campaign was described by one contemporary journalist as 'the lull before the lull', and in the event, only 28 of the 630 seats flipped from how they would've voted if they had existed in 1951. This did, however, enlarge the Tory majority from a tight 17 to a comfortable 60.

More notable than the results on the mainland, perhaps, were those in Northern Ireland. For the first time since the 1918 election, Sinn Fein won seats in the province as part of their 1950s surge. But the two candidates of the party who won the most votes in their respective seats, Tom Mitchell and Philip Clarke, would never sit in Parliament- not because of SF's abstention, and they too were abstentionists, but because they were disqualified. Both had participated in an IRA raid on a British Army barracks in Omagh the previous year and been sentenced to 10 years in prison for treason because of it, making them ineligible despite not only running but literally being elected; their seats would be handed over to Ulster Unionists, and no nationalists would be elected in the province for another 11 years.

Edit: somehow I forgot to do Great Grimsby! I also corrected the National Liberal figures- of all MPs I had Gwilym Lloyd-George, the then-Home Secretary and David's son, in Newcastle North down as a Tory. On that topic, the Nat Libs in Sheffield are odd ducks, as both used the label 'Conservative and Liberal' and sat with the Tories.
 
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UK February 1974 (notional)
I found something interesting while poring through the 1955-70 election results: a spreadsheet detailing the notional results of the February 1974 election. Obviously the vote tallies are from 1970 transposed onto the 1974-83 boundaries, and the seat totals are compared to 1970. I haven't made a basemap of my own for 1974-83 yet (besides the London inset, which iirc was a scaled-down edit of the GLC map from earlier in the thread), so for now I'm just using a heavily edited version of the Boothroyd one, but even so I think I might actually be the first to map this out.

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A few things of note:
  • If this result had been replicated by the actual election, it would have been the worst Liberal result in the party's entire history, as North Devon expanding down the Hartland Peninsula would have lost Jeremy Thorpe the seat on his 1970 figures.
  • By contrast, George 'tired and emotional' Brown would not have lost his seat on these boundaries- in fact, he would've won it by his biggest margin since 1955, as the Tory suburbs of Derby like Allestree and Mickleover get moved into Derby North and so that seat goes to them instead.
  • With most seats, the spreadsheet allows me to fairly reliably figure out the results, but North Antrim may be slightly off because it lumps together all the anti-UUP votes in a way that inflates Paisley's apparent margin. I shaved off the roughly 7% of the vote that Alasdair MacDonnell won to approximate the margin for Paisley as around the 5% mark rather than the 10% mark.
  • Upminster allegedly had an exact tie at 20,700 votes each for Labour and the Tories. The actual February 1974 results on the spreadsheet call it a Conservative gain from Labour, so I put it down as Labour here. (We'll just assume the casting vote by the returning officer went to them, I suppose.)
  • The overall headline is that the 1974-83 boundaries somewhat helped Labour compared to the 1955-74 ones, as they split off several strongly pro-Labour new towns into their own seats (Basildon, Harlow and Hertford & Stevenage are the obvious ones, but it also made seats like Hemel Hempstead, Peterborough and Welwyn & Hatfield winnable for them) and drew together upper-class Tory inner city areas with more working-class Labour parts without abolishing that many small urban constituencies.
 
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