The first question has to be when did they become the minority in our timeline?How could we get a Native Hawaiian majority in Hawaii? This strikes me as more plausible than a Maori majority in New Zealand, considering the Native Hawaiians had a higher population because the climate was better for their crops and they had pigs and chickens.
Doesn't have to be one power, the Hawai'ian islands weren't unified under Kamehameha I until the late 18th/early 19th century. Both Britain and France were interested in them but came to an agreement to keep them independent, the US was interested as shown by their eventually annexing them, and IIRC Russia took a stab at establishing a trading post on one of the northern islands which petered out. An up to four way split of the archipelago isn't impossible.Would need to get it to be a British Protectorate I'd imagine or, failing that, have Japan fight and win a war over the U.S. annexation effort in the 1890s.
The first question has to be when did they become the minority in our timeline?
Doesn't have to be one power, the Hawai'ian islands weren't unified under Kamehameha I until the late 18th/early 19th century. Both Britain and France were interested in them but came to an agreement to keep them independent, the US was interested as shown by their eventually annexing them, and IIRC Russia took a stab at establishing a trading post on one of the northern islands which petered out. An up to four way split of the archipelago isn't impossible.
Deaths to disease were a huge part of this. The Native Hawaiian population still isn't up to pre-contact levels.
I already knew that but most of Polynesia remained Polynesian majority.
Really the closest analogues within Polynesia would be New Zealand and Fiji*
just based on the amount of arable land. To your point, Fiji remained majority native Fijian (barely) but is also a bit more removed from the world and from trading routes.
*technically Melanesia but right on the periphery of Polynesia
America's not going to tolerate a British protectorate; a possible alternative might be a Condominium along the lines of the New Hebrides (Vanuatu) or the Tripartite German/British/American rule over Samoa.
Actually, a German-American clash over Samoa could be a way to handwave America's toleration of British influence in Hawaii, as a necessary concession.
That system, if it's anything like Vanuatu or Samoa will be extremely inefficient, expensive and will have no buy in from either government. But just as Britain and France somehow managed to keep the co-rule of Vanuatu going until decolonization despite various attempts by Britain to disentangle itself, I can picture Hawaii staggering on year after year, with every new American 'advisor' to their Royal Hawaiian Majesty convinced that any day now Washington will be able to annex the place.
Crucially, that's a system which is going to discourage settler colonialism; Vanuatu saw serious concerns in Australasia every time the demographic balance tipped ever so slightly to the French. A Hawaiian Condominium will firstly encourage expansionists in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and New Zealand who wanted a more muscular British policy in Polynesia- in our timeline, after the Hawaiian monarchy fell the New Zealand premier threatened President McKinley with dire consequences if America moved in.* For America's part, there will be less interest in emigration to the islands given that there will be much less easy pickings and less support from the government.
Throughout all this, I'd expect the monarchy to retain a nominal role, aka to the Kings of Tonga under British influence.
How this Condominium would deal with Japanese or other imported non-white labourers is hard to say. But I can envisage this leading to a majority-Hawaiian state at the time of decolonisation, albeit with an American 'lease' on Pearl Harbor.
*I also have a scribbled reference in my notes to him suggesting that Britain try to enlist the aid of the Japanese to keep America out of the islands, almost a decade before the A-J alliance!
With a stronger British policy in Polynesia, would we see a push to seize or pay for the French Pacific Islands in order to incorporate the entire South Pacific into the dominions, if only to make the country look bigger on the map as with Smut's wishes for a Cape-to-Kenya South Africa?America's not going to tolerate a British protectorate; a possible alternative might be a Condominium along the lines of the New Hebrides (Vanuatu) or the Tripartite German/British/American rule over Samoa.
Actually, a German-American clash over Samoa could be a way to handwave America's toleration of British influence in Hawaii, as a necessary concession.
That system, if it's anything like Vanuatu or Samoa will be extremely inefficient, expensive and will have no buy in from either government. But just as Britain and France somehow managed to keep the co-rule of Vanuatu going until decolonization despite various attempts by Britain to disentangle itself, I can picture Hawaii staggering on year after year, with every new American 'advisor' to their Royal Hawaiian Majesty convinced that any day now Washington will be able to annex the place.
Crucially, that's a system which is going to discourage settler colonialism; Vanuatu saw serious concerns in Australasia every time the demographic balance tipped ever so slightly to the French. A Hawaiian Condominium will firstly encourage expansionists in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and New Zealand who wanted a more muscular British policy in Polynesia- in our timeline, after the Hawaiian monarchy fell the New Zealand premier threatened President McKinley with dire consequences if America moved in.* For America's part, there will be less interest in emigration to the islands given that there will be much less easy pickings and less support from the government.
Throughout all this, I'd expect the monarchy to retain a nominal role, aka to the Kings of Tonga under British influence.
How this Condominium would deal with Japanese or other imported non-white labourers is hard to say. But I can envisage this leading to a majority-Hawaiian state at the time of decolonisation, albeit with an American 'lease' on Pearl Harbor.
*I also have a scribbled reference in my notes to him suggesting that Britain try to enlist the aid of the Japanese to keep America out of the islands, almost a decade before the A-J alliance!
Deaths to disease were a huge part of this. The Native Hawaiian population still isn't up to pre-contact levels.
Why were Native Hawaiians so affected by European diseases? They weren't isolated for as long as Native Americans, let alone Aboriginal Australians.
Smithsonian said:
In addition, they had domesticates.
