Maximilian I of Mexico Keeps His Throne

[ChrisNuttall]

A while back, I was reading ‘The Last Emperor of Mexico’ (highly recommend) about the French-led bid to put Archduke Maximilian on the throne of Mexico in 1864, while the US was preoccupied with the American Civil War. The scheme had a number of major problems – Mexico was incredibly divided, the UK refused to back the scheme, Maximilian himself was not a very practically-minded man, the expense eventually became unbearable particularly after America started putting intense pressure on the Europeans and supplying weapons and suchlike to the Mexicans. Maximilian was eventually taken prisoner, as his government collapses, and executed.

Could it have worked?

The problems were immense and Maximilian was not the kind of person capable of dealing with them – or even, until it was too late, realising he needed to deal with them. The Mexicans themselves were torn between libreral and conservative factions (not as we know them today, but something close) and Maximilian’s own liberal feelings put him at odds with both sides. He didn’t have an army of loyalists and relied far too much on French troops, which were eventually withdrawn. To win, Maximilian would have needed to strike a path between the two factions in hopes of building a government of national unity, as well as coming up with a plan to improve the lives of Mexicans so they didn’t join the nationalists or simply turn to banditry. He would also have needed to either find a way to pay Mexico’s creditors or convince them to put off their demands for payment (perhaps with the quiet intention of welshing on the debts, which he didn’t sign up for, when he had an army of his own.)

Could it have been done?

What do you think?

Chris

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Juarez would need to be captured and either imprisoned, exiled, or executed early in the war. My guess is France puts him under house arrest in Paris, in order to avoid enflaming resistance. Maximilian will want to be lenient, so if there is a death sentence for Juarez he will most likely be pardoned by the Emperor and left with a life sentence or exile abroad instead.

The irony about the Second Mexican Empire is that the Conservatives wanted an Emperor who shared their politics and opposed those of Benito Juarez, but the Emperor they selected essentially had many of the same liberal views of Benito Juarez - and even offered to make Juarez Prime Minister! Land reforms, religious freedom, and extending the right to vote beyond the landholding classes would be Juarez reforms retained by Maximilian (at least initially) and Maximilian probably pardons most of the people who fought against him when the Republicans are defeated. The politics would be weird and Maximilian might annoy the Conservatives by being a hands-off Emperor and deferring to liberal Parliamentary majorities.

If his regime lasts, there will be a steady stream of ex-Confederates to the New Virginia colony and several other planned colonies for ex-Confederates. These recruits would be more loyal to Maximilian than to France. Plus, Maximilian supported immigration broadly, including from Austria and the German states. These new migrants would probably end up in the liberal camp, by Mexican standards. Racist American southerners supported the gist of egalitarian Jacksonian democracy (liberal franchise) and the right to own land, and wouldn't want the Catholic Church having an official position over their lives. Maybe some of those French, Belgian, and Austrian soldiers would choose to remain in Mexico too, and thus would be primarily loyal to Maximilian.

Confederates moving to Mexico might make some of Reconstruction and Post-Bellum American history go differently. If the most racist and reactionary people flee the United States, reconstruction might settle in.

On the matter of revenue - France would probably claim property and legal rights to Mexican silver.

 

[Charles EP M.]

I think if you've got angry nationalists and republicans not wanting a foreign emperor, the US post-war not being happy if France continues to back a country on its doorstep, and Maximilian going for a more liberal regime than the conservatives want, he can certainly keep the throne longer than OTL but it's going to be extremely difficult for him to keep it until he dies a natural death. This is a lot of potential fault lines! Though if a lot of Confederate veterans ended up south and loyal to him personally, that could help him stay in if push came to shove? (Be an extremely awkward thing in history though, "liberal reforms were preserved in Mexico thanks to the foreign emperor's personal guard of ex-slavers")

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I think TheKnightIrish's timeline America: The New Sparta handled this fairly neatly. Any American government would want Max out, and any American government could easily make it happen, so instead you need to keep delaying the decision to act. Caught up in reconstruction and cabinet strife, it' not that the US ever decides 'hey, we're okay with this,' but gradually it slides into being the status quo.

So I think at least part of the POD has to be found north of the border.

 

[Roger II]

I think a more interesting way to have Maximillian on the throne would be something like him being invited to take the throne as an extremely restricted constitutional monarch-essentially, the liberal/conservative civil wars and conflicts end with a settlement and as part of the compromise there's a proposal to invite Maximillian to become monarch so the conservatives get a Crowned Catholic Head of State and liberals get a vaguely sympathetic figurehead head of state. Essentially he survives because he comes to power more like how the new Balkan countries just pity hired unemployed German royals to avoid anything that would spark internal fights.

 

[Aznavour]

Part of me always wondered whether an actually Conservative monarch to the liking of the people who approached Napoleon III with the project in the first place might not have made for a more stable monarchy. (And then maybe have Maximilian as King of Spain instead of Amadeo of Savoy)

Of course, ultimately the material conditions for the survival just aren’t there unless one keeps America out and France in.