I'd say it'd be unlikely for a few reasons. At around this time Japan was still dealing with a wave of unrest and rebellions that were more or less at their height, and while not quite stretching them thin, it did end up creating enough headaches that most officials didn't feel they could devote the resources to overseas expansion - the punitive expedition was a good way to demonstrate Japanese military muscle without protracted long-term engagements. Effective Japanese control might be limited to just the key ports, given the Taiwanese hinterland is much more substantial and better-suited for native resistance than the Ryukyu Islands. Even then, the lack of a crushing Chinese defeat like the First Sino-Japanese War would probably inspire resistance among the Han settlers, which could make things ugly. I think the island would remain a secondary concern for Japanese colonisation regardless, the priority at the time was settling Hokkaido and Ryukyu.
Many argue that even if the Pacific War had simply not happened, Taiwan would still be part of Japan.No.
Taiwan may have been Japan's 'model colony,' but that's next to Korea. There was extensive resistance right through to the 1930s.
Besides, a Japan that's expanding this fast in the 1870s is a Japan that's overextended and likely to see its empire end earlier than OTL. For one thing, it's clearly a much greater naval threat than it was in OTL, so there'll be less incentive for the Qing to let their expensive new navy rot.
Formose, c'est le Japon!
Imagine being the French military advisor to Japan who's overseeing that operation while France is expanding into the South China Sea in the 1880s.
Broke: A revolution in France sees the government flee to Algeria in a KMT analogue.
Woke: Japanese democracy almost crumbles in the 1950s after they try to hold on to Japanese Formosa.
Yes, you may have noticed me posting in it.
I've long wanted to do an Irish War of Independence in the 1950s that's akin to the Algerian War but this is a fascinating concept.Broke: A revolution in France sees the government flee to Algeria in a KMT analogue.
Woke: Japanese democracy almost crumbles in the 1950s after they try to hold on to Japanese Formosa.
No.
Taiwan may have been Japan's 'model colony,' but that's next to Korea. There was extensive resistance right through to the 1930s.
Besides, a Japan that's expanding this fast in the 1870s is a Japan that's overextended and likely to see its empire end earlier than OTL. For one thing, it's clearly a much greater naval threat than it was in OTL, so there'll be less incentive for the Qing to let their expensive new navy rot.
If they were this overextended early on though, would they have still been able to expand further, into mainland Qing China or against Imperial Russia? Or would they have been likelier to lose either of these conflicts, limiting them from further expansion and perhaps leading to their loss/failure to acquire other regions which became Japanese later on IOTL (e.g, no Sakhalin, Kuril Islands, and/or potentially even Hokkaido)?No.
Taiwan may have been Japan's 'model colony,' but that's next to Korea. There was extensive resistance right through to the 1930s.
Besides, a Japan that's expanding this fast in the 1870s is a Japan that's overextended and likely to see its empire end earlier than OTL. For one thing, it's clearly a much greater naval threat than it was in OTL, so there'll be less incentive for the Qing to let their expensive new navy rot.
If they were this overextended early on though, would they have still been able to expand further, into mainland Qing China or against Imperial Russia? Or would they have been likelier to lose either of these conflicts, limiting them from further expansion and perhaps leading to their loss/failure to acquire other regions which became Japanese later on IOTL (e.g, no Sakhalin, Kuril Islands, and/or potentially even Hokkaido)?
