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Japan doesn't 'pull a Meiji'?

V

varyar

giver of existential dread
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There's thousands of TLs where Country X 'pulls a Meiji' and successfully modernizes to the point where it can fend of Western imperialism (sometimes engaging in some imperialism of its own, to boot). But has anybody ever examined the opposite premise - a 19th century Japan that remains isolationist and doesn't modernize, maybe one that falls under the sway of Russian and/or British expansion, or simply stays out of international affairs and global trade as much as possible?

Is this at all feasible?
 
Japan is oddly "blessed" in some sense in that it doesn't really have that many natural resources. The only reason why imperialist powers showed any interest in the country in the first place was because they saw it as a useful stepping stone towards trade with/domination of China. The Chinese already had China, so they never had much of an interest in the place, and the only exception is of course the Mongols, the only people ever to have entertained serious thoughts of actually taking over the place, and, as aficionados of John Green will testify, the Mongols are always the exception. As such, Japan is oddly well-protected against imperialist powers, in that while western powers in the 19th century might very like the idea of having the Japanese be subservient to them and grant them full rights to their ports and even keeping military bases there, they're actually not going to be too keen to conquer the place and make it a proper colony.

My money is on that if Japan doesn't pull of a Meiji, it just becomes a backwater place that, while never modernizing politically nor industrializing, is neither ever properly conquered or colonized. Just a place that oddly enough gets by by, I dunno, leasing Nagasaki to the British or Americans or something of the sort.
 
Makemakean said:
Japan is oddly "blessed" in some sense in that it doesn't really have that many natural resources. The only reason why imperialist powers showed any interest in the country in the first place was because they saw it as a useful stepping stone towards trade with/domination of China. The Chinese already had China, so they never had much of an interest in the place, and the only exception is of course the Mongols, the only people ever to have entertained serious thoughts of actually taking over the place, and, as aficionados of John Green will testify, the Mongols are always the exception. As such, Japan is oddly well-protected against imperialist powers, in that while western powers in the 19th century might very like the idea of having the Japanese be subservient to them and grant them full rights to their ports and even keeping military bases there, they're actually not going to be too keen to conquer the place and make it a proper colony.

My money is on that if Japan doesn't pull of a Meiji, it just becomes a backwater place that, while never modernizing politically nor industrializing, is neither ever properly conquered or colonized. Just a place that oddly enough gets by by, I dunno, leasing Nagasaki to the British or Americans or something of the sort.
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So something like an East Asian Ethiopia? That's got some AH potential right there.
 
Time Enough said:
I could see the possibility of a No Meji Japan leading to the Republic of Ezo being able to get itself off the ground more with the possibility of the French supporting it as a fair weather friend in the region.
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That's a bit simple of a way to look at things. The Republic was a self-declared Shogunate remnant/successor, and only came into being after the refusal of loyal forces in the north to surrender to the Imperial leadership. It wouldn't have a reason to come into being without the Restoration and Boshin War, at least not in this form.

Back to the original question, I personally do think something will give eventually - by the start of the Bakumatsu Japan's population growth was slowing down while the samurai were losing ground as a demographic to the merchants, so there's obvious challenges to the rigid institutions and social hierarchy enforced by the bakufu. But the absence of foreign economic and political pressure would avoid creating catalysts that led to the regime's unraveling, in which case the bakufu can, if not completely ride out the crisis, then at least buy itself more time before a new regime sweeps it from power or it reforms to a point it could be considered "modernised".
 
The question's not so much about whether Japan was going to modernise- or rather, attempt to modernise- but how.

Remember that the Daimyos who drove the Meiji restoration started off by fighting as the pro-traditionalist faction. If the Shogunate cracks down on Satsuma & co., you'll still see a modernising Japan- but it's more likely to look like the Self-Strengthening Movement in China, with more continuity of institutions.

Certainly, the country will be opened up no later than the Second Opium War- even if Perry had somehow got lost on his way across the Pacific, I expect the Shogun would have been visited by the Royal Navy and Harry Parkes in about 1861.

That's not to say that this would change nothing; certainly without the almost revolutionary clear-out of the ruling elite in the wake of the Boshin War, I think that any modernisation is likely to be less effective in effecting the rapid industrialisation we sat in OTL. That is likely to have dramatic consequences in China and Korea- it might be just the filip the Qing need to make it into the twentieth century without the turmoil of 1895-1912.

Culturally, you're also likely to butterfly the interest in Japanese culture that was so important in European and American salons at the end of the century. James Whistler is likely to develop as quite a different artist, for example.
 
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And if the Qing are stronger, than the Russians may never be as influential in inner Manchuria as they were in 1905. Before the Sino-Japanese War, the Qing were strong enough that they could actually tear up a treaty with the Russians and refuse to make territorial concessions- the Ili Valley incident.

After the Treaty of Shimonoseki, not so much.
 
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