Hoare-Laval Goes Through?

Jackson Lennock

Well-known member
What if the Hoare-Laval Proposal hadn't leaked, and Italy and Ethiopia agreed to it in 1935?

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The most immediate consequence, methinks, would be that Italy remains aligned with the UK and France against Germany. Mussolini didn't like Hitler to begin with, and a lot of his drifting toward Hitler was in response to the sanctions that resulted from the Ethiopian War. Italy thus would stand with Britain and France against Germany. This could be during the Rhine Crisis (1936), Anschluss (1938), or Munich Crisis (1938). Even if Britain backs down, France would have Italy supporting her in trying to stand up to the Germans. And if war breaks out earlier, the German military would coup Hitler.

However, the Spanish Civil War would still break out in 1936 and be an ongoing issue. That could be a wedge between Britain and France, on the one hand, and Italy on the other. But I also don't see a clear reason why the non-intervention position of Britain and France OTL wouldn't win out again.

A second-order consequence is in Palestine. First, the revolt in Palestine may be averted or delayed. Palestine did a lot of trading with Italy's Empire. No sanctions means no economic hit there. Meanwhile, even if it does still occur, Germany getting slapped down in 1936 or 1938 likely means no need for a British Appeasement Policy in the Middle East - meaning no White Paper of 1939.

An additional consequence is that Britain and France have a freer hand in the far east when addressing Japan's aggression.

Italy's Empire would be a pretty stable thing. Italy could end up with a colonial war like OTL Portugal, but Italy seemed to put a lot more effort into developing and Italianizing its colonies. Italy having its own equivalent of Lusotropicalism doesn't mean Italy wouldn't have the same issues at OTL Lusotropicalism though. On the other hand, Libya would probably end up Italian-majority by the 50s (though that would change over time due to disparities in who has kids).

Italy probably forms a little authoritarian bloc with Spain and Portugal. Maybe Italy gets dragged into Portugal's colonial wars.
 
Given the backlash against it as a proposal, probably be negative consequences to the French and British governments domestically if it goes through.

Possibly in Italy too, if its seen as an incomplete victory because Britain and France stopped them taking the lot.

A compromise that satisfies neither side.

Given the sanctions only lasted a year in otl and were followed by numerous attempts to placate Mussolini. You could argue this would actually make Italy more likely to view France as the next target. After all savong half of Ethiopia is a clear blocking of Italy's place in the sun.
 
Given the backlash against it as a proposal, probably be negative consequences to the French and British governments domestically if it goes through.

Possibly in Italy too, if its seen as an incomplete victory because Britain and France stopped them taking the lot.

A compromise that satisfies neither side.

Given the sanctions only lasted a year in otl and were followed by numerous attempts to placate Mussolini. You could argue this would actually make Italy more likely to view France as the next target. After all savong half of Ethiopia is a clear blocking of Italy's place in the sun.
Benny was in the end interested in the deal as the war was not going so stalling but waited too much and the pubblic pressure stop any deal, if he accept very quick it can be done...but yes there will be consequences and not very good regarding the popularity of all involved and the Italian King will be happy as a less popular Benny mean a less dangerous Benny (ironically the sanctions increase the popularity of the fascist).
Good for everyone involved in the long term as Italy spend less blood and treasure in the conquest and occupation of a worthless land and a neutral Italy usually mean a much shorter WWII
 
Good for everyone involved in the long term

Not really for the Ethiopians, unless they can spend the time arming and preparing for when Mussolini decides he still wants the rest of the country so he can link up the colonies. And if Germany offers "y'know, we'll back you in getting the rest of your rightful spoils", Axis could be back on the menu.
 
Not really for the Ethiopians, unless they can spend the time arming and preparing for when Mussolini decides he still wants the rest of the country so he can link up the colonies.
Much better for Ethiopia than the alternative given the massacres that marked Italian occupation.

I too think people are jumping far too quickly on 'this means neutral Italy' mind. Blum was not remotely anti Italian in OTL, the sanctions were dropped after a year and in this TTL Italy have objectively been cheated out of a full victory.

I kind of agree with the point @raharris1973 made in another thread, which is that Italy siding with Germany against France is far less because the Germans treat Italy better (that isn't really the case) and far more because Italy thought the Germans had a better chance of winning. And that isn't going to change, the motives remain that if Germany are too strong to contain, then you best get on their side and try and take land elsewhere.
 
It Ethiopia can keep this sea access, and lacks Tigrays, things will be rather different over time, regardless of events in Europe.
 
The most immediate consequence, methinks, would be that Italy remains aligned with the UK and France against Germany. Mussolini didn't like Hitler to begin with, and a lot of his drifting toward Hitler was in response to the sanctions that resulted from the Ethiopian War. Italy thus would stand with Britain and France against Germany. This could be during the Rhine Crisis (1936), Anschluss (1938), or Munich Crisis (1938). Even if Britain backs down, France would have Italy supporting her in trying to stand up to the Germans. And if war breaks out earlier, the German military would coup Hitler.

However, the Spanish Civil War would still break out in 1936 and be an ongoing issue. That could be a wedge between Britain and France, on the one hand, and Italy on the other. But I also don't see a clear reason why the non-intervention position of Britain and France OTL wouldn't win out again.

I can't imagine anything would come of the Rhine Crisis and think that Italy being distracted with the SCW (It weakened the Italian Army a lot, given the casualties and equipment losses), Hitler can still get away with the Anschluss. I believe the real test with the Stresa Front will come with the Munich Crisis, and what springs from there could be interesting. I could see the Anglo-French still caving while Mussolini blunders into a conflict with the Czechs against the Germans; the ramifications of that in particular could be major. Alternatively of course, the Stresa Front holds and Hitler gets replaced by a military regime that restores the Monarchy. I could see Italy's sphere of influence in that case extending into the Balkans with Hungary and Romania in particular being clear allies, possibly Greece as well.
 
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I can't imagine anything would come of the Rhine Crisis and Italy being distracted during the SCW (It weakened the Italian Army a lot, given the casualties and equipment losses), Hitler can still get away with the Anschluss. I think the real test with the Stresa Front will come with the Munich Crisis, and what springs from there could be interesting. I could see the Anglo-French still caving while Mussolini blunders into a conflict with the Czechs against the Germans; the ramifications of that in particular could be major. Alternatively of course, the Stresa Front holds and Hitler gets replaced by a military regime that restores the Monarchy. I could see Italy's sphere of influence in that case extending into the Balkans with Hungary and Romania in particular being clear allies, possibly Greece as well.
The conclusions drawn in bold seem strange to me.

Why would Mussolini value Czech territorial integrity so much as to fight for it? Especially without active partners in London and Paris? Especially with the big spit of land known as 'Austria' sitting between northern Italy and Czechoslovakia already conceded to Germany?

Why, if he hasn't been sanctioned by the western powers and had mutually deteriorating relations with them, would he have permitted Hitler to achieve Anschluss in early 1938 without resisting it by warlike means in collaboration with Schussnigg regime forces? Just because Hitler, and possibly a plurality of majority of Austrians, 'wantzes the precious' Anschluss so much?

It seems the me if Mussolini wishes to stand up to Hitler in the Danube/Central Europe region, Austria, Italy's neighbor and ideological satellite, is the place to do it. To try to 'bar the gate to the barn door' into the region at the Czechoslovakian border and its Sudetenland mountains, after Nazi Germany got 'its whole leg up to the knee' inside the Danube valley in Austria, seems rather pointless.
 
The conclusions drawn in bold seem strange to me.

Why would Mussolini value Czech territorial integrity so much as to fight for it? Especially without active partners in London and Paris? Especially with the big spit of land known as 'Austria' sitting between northern Italy and Czechoslovakia already conceded to Germany?

Why, if he hasn't been sanctioned by the western powers and had mutually deteriorating relations with them, would he have permitted Hitler to achieve Anschluss in early 1938 without resisting it by warlike means in collaboration with Schussnigg regime forces? Just because Hitler, and possibly a plurality of majority of Austrians, 'wantzes the precious' Anschluss so much?

It seems the me if Mussolini wishes to stand up to Hitler in the Danube/Central Europe region, Austria, Italy's neighbor and ideological satellite, is the place to do it. To try to 'bar the gate to the barn door' into the region at the Czechoslovakian border and its Sudetenland mountains, after Nazi Germany got 'its whole leg up to the knee' inside the Danube valley in Austria, seems rather pointless.

Undoubtedly Austria is more important than Czechoslovakia to Italy, but I'm making the assumption Italy still embroils itself with Spain. That represented a huge drain on the Italian military and would thus limit their options, particularly with the Anglo-French being reluctant to go to war over the issue. By Munich, the Anglo-French were more willing to confront Hitler as his intentions became clear and alarms would be blaring in Rome likewise over the increase in German power making that a plausible line in the sand moment. Given Mussolini's historical behavior of being exceptionally erratic, I could see him making a huge blunder and getting into a war at this moment. Of course, as you note, he could do the same earlier over Austria; I don't think it's a hard lean one way or the other, but I do think 1938 would be the most likely time for a confrontation.
 
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