Jackson Lennock
Well-known member
What if the Hoare-Laval Proposal hadn't leaked, and Italy and Ethiopia agreed to it in 1935?
The most immediate consequence, methinks, would be that Italy remains aligned with the UK and France against Germany. Mussolini didn't like Hitler to begin with, and a lot of his drifting toward Hitler was in response to the sanctions that resulted from the Ethiopian War. Italy thus would stand with Britain and France against Germany. This could be during the Rhine Crisis (1936), Anschluss (1938), or Munich Crisis (1938). Even if Britain backs down, France would have Italy supporting her in trying to stand up to the Germans. And if war breaks out earlier, the German military would coup Hitler.
However, the Spanish Civil War would still break out in 1936 and be an ongoing issue. That could be a wedge between Britain and France, on the one hand, and Italy on the other. But I also don't see a clear reason why the non-intervention position of Britain and France OTL wouldn't win out again.
A second-order consequence is in Palestine. First, the revolt in Palestine may be averted or delayed. Palestine did a lot of trading with Italy's Empire. No sanctions means no economic hit there. Meanwhile, even if it does still occur, Germany getting slapped down in 1936 or 1938 likely means no need for a British Appeasement Policy in the Middle East - meaning no White Paper of 1939.
An additional consequence is that Britain and France have a freer hand in the far east when addressing Japan's aggression.
Italy's Empire would be a pretty stable thing. Italy could end up with a colonial war like OTL Portugal, but Italy seemed to put a lot more effort into developing and Italianizing its colonies. Italy having its own equivalent of Lusotropicalism doesn't mean Italy wouldn't have the same issues at OTL Lusotropicalism though. On the other hand, Libya would probably end up Italian-majority by the 50s (though that would change over time due to disparities in who has kids).
Italy probably forms a little authoritarian bloc with Spain and Portugal. Maybe Italy gets dragged into Portugal's colonial wars.

The most immediate consequence, methinks, would be that Italy remains aligned with the UK and France against Germany. Mussolini didn't like Hitler to begin with, and a lot of his drifting toward Hitler was in response to the sanctions that resulted from the Ethiopian War. Italy thus would stand with Britain and France against Germany. This could be during the Rhine Crisis (1936), Anschluss (1938), or Munich Crisis (1938). Even if Britain backs down, France would have Italy supporting her in trying to stand up to the Germans. And if war breaks out earlier, the German military would coup Hitler.
However, the Spanish Civil War would still break out in 1936 and be an ongoing issue. That could be a wedge between Britain and France, on the one hand, and Italy on the other. But I also don't see a clear reason why the non-intervention position of Britain and France OTL wouldn't win out again.
A second-order consequence is in Palestine. First, the revolt in Palestine may be averted or delayed. Palestine did a lot of trading with Italy's Empire. No sanctions means no economic hit there. Meanwhile, even if it does still occur, Germany getting slapped down in 1936 or 1938 likely means no need for a British Appeasement Policy in the Middle East - meaning no White Paper of 1939.
An additional consequence is that Britain and France have a freer hand in the far east when addressing Japan's aggression.
Italy's Empire would be a pretty stable thing. Italy could end up with a colonial war like OTL Portugal, but Italy seemed to put a lot more effort into developing and Italianizing its colonies. Italy having its own equivalent of Lusotropicalism doesn't mean Italy wouldn't have the same issues at OTL Lusotropicalism though. On the other hand, Libya would probably end up Italian-majority by the 50s (though that would change over time due to disparities in who has kids).
Italy probably forms a little authoritarian bloc with Spain and Portugal. Maybe Italy gets dragged into Portugal's colonial wars.