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Gulf War in 1961

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On 19 June 1961 the British Protectorate over the Sheikhdom of Kuwait ended, and the Gulf state became independent. Independence was immediately met by declarations from Iraqi Prime Minister Abd al-Karim Qasim that Kuwait would be annexed, and in response Britain encouraged Kuwait to request its military help, and Operation Vantage, a build-up of British forces, was launched. The Iraqi invasion never emerged, Qasim was couped by the Ba'ath Party and Iraq recognised Kuwait in 1963.

Reading around the topic, things could have been different:

  • The British ability to respond was predicated on there being at least four days warning of a build up in Basra. Britain was fortunate that Qasim had decided to very publicly state his desire to annex Kuwait, well in advance of launching any invasion (if there was ever to be one - Britain estimated that if there was to be an invasion it would be launched on 14 July to coincide with the anniversary of the Iraqi Revolution that overthrew the monarchy in 1958). In the event, Britain was only warned on 29 June that a tank regiment could be in Basra on 1 July.
  • British analysis was that they needed to ensure that any intervention in Kuwait was pre-emptive, as they didn't feel they would be able to reverse an annexation once it had happened. At the time, Operation Vantage was the first British intervention in the Middle East since Suez.
  • It's not a great time for Qasim - he's struggling to balance Communists and Ba'athists, Pan-Arabs and Iraq first types in his own government, Mustafa Barzani has taken power in Kurdistan and is acting independently of Baghdad, the United Arab Republic have complex relations with his Iraq. He's also seen as unpredictable - the sort of person who could suddenly order a surprise invasion of Kuwait, maybe to distract from domestic woes?
So what if Qasim unpredictably launches an invasion of Kuwait and overwhelms the newly independent state? Does Britain try and dislodge the Iraqis, risking another Suez humiliation (at least this time they have the support of the US - having been very careful to check that the US would support them before launching Operation Vantage)? Does Britain have to give Kuwait up for lost? How do other states in the area respond - particularly Iran (which has been subject to similar claims on its territory from Qasim), the United Arab Republic (which has been supporting the Kurds in Iraq when convenient), and Saudi Arabia (which has its own territorial disputes with Iraq and has seen the state potentially take a dominant position with regards Middle East oil production)?
 
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I think we'd have given up Kuwait (except for sanctions and stern words) unless we thought we were going to get a lot of help from other countries. If states like Iran want to hit Iraq before it hits them and are saying "c'mon Supermac we'll go to war with you", then that could change things. And I'm assuming we'd win at that point.

That then has knock-on effects since we have a pre-Falklands war against an obvious aggressor that we won (and with foreign allies instead of alone), we buddied up with various Middle Eastern states, the Arab nations surrounding Israel got to watch a multinational coalition against one state and can take notes, and the biggie of no Iraq-Iran War
 
And depending on when the Gulf War starts (if it does), does this undo the Profumo Affair or at least means it doesn't undermine Hero War0-Winner Macmillan? (Does this prevent Labour in '64?) Does Profumo resign over the invasion happening on his watch ala Carington resigning as Foreign Secretary over Falklands, or does him being part of a war against The Baddies delay any scandal checks? Does Profumo get booted and replaced because there's a war coming and Macmillan doesn't want a growing scandal undercutting this?

Hell, is the war undermined because the Profumo Affair's in full flow and it seems impossible to do it without everyone going "boo you're only going to war to help Johnny Boy"? (And if so, what happens if Iran etc go "fuck it we'll go to war without Britain then"?)
 
Charles EP M. said:
And depending on when the Gulf War starts (if it does), does this undo the Profumo Affair or at least means it doesn't undermine Hero War0-Winner Macmillan? (Does this prevent Labour in '64?) Does Profumo resign over the invasion happening on his watch ala Carington resigning as Foreign Secretary over Falklands, or does him being part of a war against The Baddies delay any scandal checks? Does Profumo get booted and replaced because there's a war coming and Macmillan doesn't want a growing scandal undercutting this?

Hell, is the war undermined because the Profumo Affair's in full flow and it seems impossible to do it without everyone going "boo you're only going to war to help Johnny Boy"? (And if so, what happens if Iran etc go "fuck it we'll go to war without Britain then"?)
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If anyone is going to resign over Kuwait it's probably Lord Home, who's Foreign Secretary at the time.

There might be interesting knock-ons in Oman, where the Dhofar Rebellion is just about to begin, and Aden, where the Aden Emergency is similarly about to begin. You could have a Britain which makes greater efforts to hold on to Aden in the face of the NLF, or one which makes less efforts to resolve the Dhofar Rebellion, causing Oman to become a failed, or at least divided state.
 
Was unaware of this potential and I have to say I'm intrigued. The very boring thing would be to say the UK sends a sternly worded letter and the annexation continues apace until Iraq either pisses off the wrong neighbour and/or alienates the wrong people within the country. Boring is unfair, actually, since that means a very different history of the Middle East but I'm really intrigued by the suggestion of a Coalition effort similar to OTL Gulf War with different players.

In the UK, the narrative coming out of Suez that was later looked at as decline until BLESSED SAINT MARGARET "rescued" us has been flipped after only five years. It's a distraction, if nothing else, from Vassall and Profumo, so the election due before the end of 1964 might be Harold vs. Harold, if Harold still rises since Harold is unlikely to step down. The Conservative government might continue and Supermac retire in 1964 or 1965, and the events of this Gulf War and subsequent would see a very different leadership election.

In the Middle East, Qasim might find himself in trouble a couple years earlier than he did OTL. Would the Ba'athists come to power earlier or might there be other possibilities? Iran is presumably left in a buoyant position just before the Shah is about to embark on the White Revolution, does this have any impact on the planned land reforms? Have they, the UAR, and the Saudis chipped away at the borders of Iraq as well as establishing a Kurdish state?
 
Charles EP M. said:
And depending on when the Gulf War starts (if it does), does this undo the Profumo Affair or at least means it doesn't undermine Hero War0-Winner Macmillan? (Does this prevent Labour in '64?) Does Profumo resign over the invasion happening on his watch ala Carington resigning as Foreign Secretary over Falklands, or does him being part of a war against The Baddies delay any scandal checks? Does Profumo get booted and replaced because there's a war coming and Macmillan doesn't want a growing scandal undercutting this?

Hell, is the war undermined because the Profumo Affair's in full flow and it seems impossible to do it without everyone going "boo you're only going to war to help Johnny Boy"? (And if so, what happens if Iran etc go "fuck it we'll go to war without Britain then"?)
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Thinking about this aspect a bit more, Profumo and Keeler would have known each other for less than a week if there's an invasion on 14 July. Their relationship either gets almost wholly butterflied as Profumo is too busy to get busy, or it keeps going and Profumo gets shuffled upwards in the fall-out from the invasion if Home gets shafted, taking an actual Cabinet position, making it all the more damaging when it all comes out.
 
RyanF said:
Would the Ba'athists come to power earlier or might there be other possibilities?
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Just coming back to this, the CIA had plans around 63’ to Coup Qasim, But Iraq was so unstable that the Baathists did it beforehand. Here the CIA would probably have more of an ample opportunity to influence events (which would be interesting to see what Baathists raise up this scenario).

Additionally this would have knock on effects with the Baathists in Syria to.
RyanF said:
establishing a Kurdish state?
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A messier collapse of Qasim is a better opportunity for the Iraqi Kurds to break away and start there own thing whilst everyone is looking around confused. Part of Qasim’s collapse was related to the Kurdish deciding to end there support for his regime which had knock on effects.
 
RyanF said:
"Congratulations on another successful coup, boys!"

"That one wasn't us-"

"Shh! Yeah, another flawlessly executed CIA operation."
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It’s funny (horribly depressing) because the CIA rolled with it and would just rock up to Iraqi Army officers with lists filled with folks they didn’t like and had planned to hand out to various plotters, but due to the coup happening the CIA was like ‘Here you go Mr Hussien, you seem like a bright lad, go and deal with these folks’.
 
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