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German Intervention in the Russo Japanese War

Death's Companion

General Ugg Apologist.
So its come to my attention recently that the Tsar genuinely seemed to take German support as a given thanks to the Kaiser being his usual diplomatic self and stirring up shit without really thinking things through.


Now the Anglo Japanese alliance seems a very definite reason for the Germans not to formally join the war but I'm thinking that if they allows the Russians to use their coaling stations or possibly even 'lease' a few modern warships, the outcome may be a bit less disasterous for Russia but tbh what happens in the East short of a world war breaking out is quite a bit less important than wondering what happens in a world where court at St Petersberg is angry at the French and British and views Germany as at least sharing certain interests.

All pretty vague given its not an area I know much about and tbh it seems a very wide open scenario for people to play with if so interested.
 
Tsar Nicholas seems to have had a strong desire to redefine relations with Germany, from restoring the Three Emperor's League to efforts in the early 1900s and, finally, the "Dear Nick, Dear Willy" letters from 1914 as both monarchs tried in vain to prevent the situation from spiraling out of their hands. Most clearly, this is shown in the ill fated Treaty of Björkö, which was a secret mutual defense pact signed by both the Monarchs and would have been tantamount to restoring the Three Emperor's League and ending the Franco-Russian Alliance. If the Tsar's Government is Anti-French as a result of German aid in the Russo-Japanese War, then it's likely the Treaty is able to stick.
 
I think the question of how the naval war would be affected is ultimately dependent on factors regarding the extent of German involvement, including what place their East Asian colonies and concessions play, especially Tsingtao. If the Germans don't go so far that they're dragged into outright conflict with Japan, it's safe to say that the war's outcome will still hinge on a decisive naval battle like Tsushima. If they do, well, it probably still does, though the Russians could potentially have the benefit of a number of cruisers from the German East Asia Squadron to augment their forces. Considering the extent to which luck and circumstance played a part in the outcome at Tsushima, it's a bit hard to tell how much difference that would make.

I can't speak about the outcomes of European diplomacy over the following decade, but I do feel like short of the Germans surrendering Tsingtao and their East Asian concessions (which I highly doubt Japan has the capability of pulling off given how badly the Army was bogged down in Manchuria by the war's end) they aren't going to get significantly punished. Even in OTL, the Treaty of Portsmouth was less favourable to the Japanese they had hoped, and both the United States and Britain had absolutely no intent to let Japan violate the Open Door Policy and monopolise any part of China, which in turn led to suspicion between both sides.
 
Germany and Russia having a rapproachment and chumming around feels like a nightmare for Austria-Hungary, who are the Number Three of Central European powers and now can't rely on Berlin's help if they get into any conflict with Russia or its chums. They'd be isolated and have newly limited ability to dominate anyone smaller. Who can they turn to now?
 
The two alliances being Germany, Russia against France and Britain is interesting. Wonder if that’d lead Austria to seek help from France and Britain and as a result Italy has both possible irredentism targets united against them.

There's a chance that bereft of friends, Austria-Hungary implodes even more quickly during a crisis than it did in the OTL First World War.
 
Germany and Russia having a rapproachment and chumming around feels like a nightmare for Austria-Hungary, who are the Number Three of Central European powers and now can't rely on Berlin's help if they get into any conflict with Russia or its chums. They'd be isolated and have newly limited ability to dominate anyone smaller. Who can they turn to now?

The sane answer would be if the Germans and Russians are on good terms and the Serbians assassinate the Austrian heir to the throne they talk to each other and agree how much Serbia should be punished, perhaps with some stage managing of threats and counter threats.


Of course if there was any sanity and open lines of communication the OTL war would never have happened so the likely outcome is a bad one.


On the third hand Russia had ambitions on the Ottoman Empire that the British were very much opposed to, in a world where they were at a knife edge you might see the British and French courting Austria Hungary or alternatively some sort of detente in the Balkans as the Germans promise the Russians the straits if they allow Germany its desired Turkish sphere and as a quid pro quo the Austrians are left alone.


Tbh there seems a lot of room for various interesting reactions to a relatively simple POD.
 
I don't think it would make that much of a difference in the short run - the Germans didn't have enough ships to tip the balance against the Japanese at the time (plus the Japanese could have taken most of the German possessions in the far east at the time.) It might lead to more Franco-British involvement in the war too - France wouldn't be happy if Germany and Russia become close allies - but it's hard to see what they could reasonably do.

Long-term, it might allow the Russians to send more troops to the Far East ...
 
I don't think it would make that much of a difference in the short run - the Germans didn't have enough ships to tip the balance against the Japanese at the time (plus the Japanese could have taken most of the German possessions in the far east at the time.) It might lead to more Franco-British involvement in the war too - France wouldn't be happy if Germany and Russia become close allies - but it's hard to see what they could reasonably do.

Long-term, it might allow the Russians to send more troops to the Far East ...

TBH I disagree on the Japanese taking the German possessions, they were heavily bogged down at Port Arthur even token garrisons would be a serious problem at the time given the logistics involved.

Also there are the international repercussions of an Asian power taking ground from multiple white powers, heavy pressure from London (by way of Canberra) and Washington against that sort of thing.


Tbh the German fleet might never leave harbor but if the Russians get a place to recoal and also to clean down their ships before making the later legs of the journey that alone would save ships as part of the OTL disaster was from a lethal buildup of coaldust on multiple ships which led to catasrophic explosions.

If the Germans do send ships, then even a relatively token force of a few battleships or cruisers would make a real difference given the Japanese were already outnumbered in battleships though had a serious edge in cruisers and destroyers a stronger combined fleet may well win or at least not get completely shot to pieces.


But I don't think that the HSF would sail all the way to the Pacific to fight Russia's war, the risk of British intervention would be far too high and it wasn't really their fight.
 
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Thinking about it, wasn't Britain supposed to join Japan if a second power intervened in the war? Germany might trip that threshold.
 
Thinking about it, wasn't Britain supposed to join Japan if a second power intervened in the war? Germany might trip that threshold.
Yes, though there was a get out clause as the treaty excepted China and Korea though British intervention is a very real possibility and probably one of the primary factors against a direct military contribution.
 
Aside from the clause governing China and Korea, the alliance overall was primarily a defensive one and wasn't supposed to account for either side launching a war of aggression. Britain wouldn't, under the circumstances defined with German deployments, join the war as long as it remains an affair over Korea and Manchuria. Were the Germans to attack the Japanese mainland, that would be an entirely different situation, but even then I suspect British involvement to be anywhere in the range of putting pressure on the Germans and Russians to sue for peace and calling up a naval contingent to shore up the IJN. And short of Germany attacking Weihaiwei or Hong Kong, which would be an extremely huge leap to take, that alone probably isn't sufficient to bring the war to Europe.
 
Germany and Russia having a rapproachment and chumming around feels like a nightmare for Austria-Hungary, who are the Number Three of Central European powers and now can't rely on Berlin's help if they get into any conflict with Russia or its chums. They'd be isolated and have newly limited ability to dominate anyone smaller. Who can they turn to now?

[Italy has entered the chat]
 
Germany and Russia having a rapproachment and chumming around feels like a nightmare for Austria-Hungary, who are the Number Three of Central European powers and now can't rely on Berlin's help if they get into any conflict with Russia or its chums. They'd be isolated and have newly limited ability to dominate anyone smaller. Who can they turn to now?

There's a strain of French foreign policy that argue it should never have abandoned ties with AH as a counterweight to Germany.

Of course it's a bit of a ridiculous one considering it'd be more of a roadbump than a counterweight, but France also had a tendency to overestimate its place in the world. So I could see it.
 
There's a strain of French foreign policy that argue it should never have abandoned ties with AH as a counterweight to Germany.

Of course it's a bit of a ridiculous one considering it'd be more of a roadbump than a counterweight, but France also had a tendency to overestimate its place in the world. So I could see it.

I'd love to see the Anglo-French propaganda that has to simultaneously go "THESE German-speaking people are FILTHY VIOLENT HUNS" and "THESE German-speaking people are BRAVE PLUCKY ALLIES"
 
I'd love to see the Anglo-French propaganda that has to simultaneously go "THESE German-speaking people are FILTHY VIOLENT HUNS" and "THESE German-speaking people are BRAVE PLUCKY ALLIES"

Talk a lot about the multicultural nature of of AH?

Or if you're not afraid of scaring the English, make it about religion.

Honestly this could make Austria proper a powderkeg of nationalism too.
 
Good point, "the Kaiser's men wants to crush lovely multicultural Austria-Hungary". You'd get posters akin to this:

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even as the ethnic divides all explode due to the experience of war and officers from one group sendinf troops from another to get shot (and this time, with the whole "our officers are German like the enemy" thing even if the Austrians are all going "fuck you Germany, your accents are funny")
 
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