France Partitions Algeria, retaining the bulk of it

[Jackson Lennock]

What if France had partitioned Algeria and retained the bulk of it? The idea was considered, but ended up not happening.

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The areas which become independent have about 18.6 million people population in 2022. French Algeria has 26.1 million people in 2022. Perhaps many people in the French portion would move to Tlemcen and Constantine though.

Also notable is that France proposed making the disputed border region of Tindouf and Bechar a condominium with Morocco. Morocco rejected the idea, assuming that Algeria would become independent and Morocco could seize the region then. Here, that idea might be revisited.

Insurgency would likely be a continuing issue for France.

 

[Ricardolindo]

What if France had partitioned Algeria and retained the bulk of it? The idea was considered, but ended up not happening.

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The areas which become independent have about 18.6 million people population in 2022. French Algeria has 26.1 million people in 2022. Perhaps many people in the French portion would move to Tlemcen and Constantine though.

Also notable is that France proposed making the disputed border region of Tindouf and Bechar a condominium with Morocco. Morocco rejected the idea, assuming that Algeria would become independent and Morocco could seize the region then. Here, that idea might be revisited.

Insurgency would likely be a continuing issue for France.

I posted a scenario about France keeping Oran in 2020 at https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/french-oran.2837/ and @Redolegna showed it was implausible. I assume the same applies to this scenario.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

The OAS were at least one order of magnitude worse than any side in the Troubles, in the brief time they operated, I think, and they did not even have to go to the Americans for heavy weapons. If they have a 'dream' they can still hold on to part of Algeria they'll fight to the bitter end.

And anyway, the strength of the pieds-noirs came from all the land their ancestors had stolen from the Algerians. It was the fertile land, it was the land best connected to the distribution network, etc. Apart from the minority of Oranian shopkeepers already there, how are we to cram one million people in a single sort of city-state without any farming hinterland, shorn of all their wealth?

Population of Oran in the 1960s: slightly over 300,000 people with maybe room for an extra 100,000 inhabitants from the people who fled during the war. Today: 600,000 in the city, with an extra 700,000 in the surrounding suburbs. There's just no room for the more than a million people, pieds-noirs and harkis who'll be fleeing. Look up bidonville de Nanterre, and that was when we relocated people to the métropole. One of our former minister, Azouz Begag, grew up in one such shantytown, the Chaâba, near Lyon. If these sprout up en masse around Oran, that'll spell catastrophe in weeks, disaster in months, pure horror for the months to come.

Based on this, there seems to be a massive difference between wasting time and effort to hold onto one city where most of the Pied Noirs didn't even live and keeping sizable portions of Algeria and giving the native population there citizenship.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Based on this, there seems to be a massive difference between wasting time and effort to hold onto one city where most of the Pied Noirs didn't even live and keeping sizable portions of Algeria and giving the native population there citizenship.

The fact remains that French public opinion had turned strongly against keeping any part of Algeria, though.
I find a scenario in which France gives all Algerians full citizenship, aborting the war and, thus, keeps all of Algeria more plausible actually.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

The fact remains that French public opinion had turned strongly against keeping any part of Algeria, though.
I find a scenario in which France gives all Algerians full citizenship, aborting the war and, thus, keeping all of Algeria more plausible actually.

Giving all of the Algerians full citizenship would be too much to swallow, as far as the French public was concerned.

Additionally, though Paris was interested in ameliorative reforms beforehand (for decades even) the Pied Noir lobby was routinely opposed to such things. Anything short of full equality was rejected by the Algerian movement too.

Division and equality for those still within France seems tenable though.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Giving all of the Algerians full citizenship would be too much to swallow, as far as the French public was concerned.

Additionally, though Paris was interested in ameliorative reforms beforehand (for decades even) the Pied Noir lobby was routinely opposed to such things. Anything short of full equality was rejected by the Algerian movement too.

Division and equality for those still within France seems tenable though.

Could you, please, fix Algerians and keeps in the quote, like I did?
Regardless, the Algerian independence movement wanted independence for all of Algeria and as I understand @Redolegna, most French wanted either all or none of Algeria.
Giving all Algerians full citizenship might have been the best option for France. They could have kept Algeria peacefully and humanely, had Algerian oil and still have had a solid Christian and irreligious majority. Algeria under continued French rule would have been more developed and had lower birth rates. IMO, a modern France with Algeria would have been only 25% Muslim, which is probably how it will eventually end up anyways and note most French Muslims are of Algerian origin. One reason this didn't happen is that no one foresaw any of this. Note that the Arab elites of Algeria did hope for a long time that France could accept them.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Could you, please, fix Algerians and keeps in the quote, like I did?

Huh? I'm unsure of what you're asking here.

Regardless, the Algerian independence movement wanted independence for all of Algeria and as I understand @Redolegna, most French wanted either all or none of Algeria.
Giving all Algerians full citizenship might have been the best option for France. They could have kept Algeria peacefully and humanely, had Algerian oil and still have had a solid Christian and irreligious majority. Algeria under continued French rule would have been more developed and had lower birth rates. IMO, a modern France with Algeria would have been only 25% Muslim, which is probably how it will eventually end up anyways and note most French Muslims are of Algerian origin. One reason this didn't happen is that no one foresaw any of this. Note that the Arab elites of Algeria did hope for a long time that France could accept them.

Keeping 90% of the territory of Algeria seems like something the French would go along with, happily (arrogantly?) claiming they made some kind of equitable division. Even with a lower birth rate, France was far too racist to suddenly make its country 25% muslim in the mid 20th century.

My above numbers had 26.1 million people. If it's only 75% of that (emigration and reduced fertility due to increased standard of living and availability of family planning) That's ~19.6 million people. There are about 4 million muslims in France in 2022. Metropolitan France (meaning France + Algeria) would have 84.85 million people, so France would be about 28% muslim. If you include the overseas French (Guiana, Comoros, etc) the percentage is about the same. There'd be a lot of assimilation like OTL (by most measures, France has the most integrated muslim community in Europe), and probably more immigration to the Hexagon from Algeria, but I wonder if the average Algerian in French Algeria would assimilate much. Perhaps so in the cities, but I can imagine many US-style disputes about public schooling and how public with one's religion one can be in the schools.

French Algeria reminds me a lot of the American South, honestly.


A little off topic, but if France kept Algeria and Gabon (which wanted to be a French overseas province), France would have more oil than Qatar. If you divide this bigger French population (France plus overseas), that's about 14,677 barrels a day per person - more than Nigeria or the UK, but less than Mexico. France may have the advantage of using less oil because they use nuclear (meaning they'd get more money from exports). Algeria alone would put France around Nigeria. Algeria OTL has 33,205 barrels a day per person. Maybe France could better spend it

I wonder if France retaining Algeria would make it a kind of manufacturing power. Algeria would have lots of cheap labor and the advantage of lower shipping costs compared to places in Asia.


Also, from a humanitarian perspective, it would be a big positive if the Harki who were lynched OTL weren't killed. Perhaps as many as 150,000 were killed following the Algerian War.



France might have a stronger relationship with Israel here, as the Arab states will be much more anti-French if Algeria is still colonized.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Huh? I'm unsure of what you're asking here.

I meant fixing Algeriand for Algerians and keeping for keeps in the quote, like I did in my reply.

Keeping 90% of the territory of Algeria seems like something the French would go along with, happily (arrogantly?) claiming they made some kind of equitable division. Even with a lower birth rate, France was far too racist to suddenly make its country 25% muslim in the mid 20th century.

My above numbers had 26.1 million people. If it's only 75% of that (emigration and reduced fertility due to increased standard of living and availability of family planning) That's ~19.6 million people. There are about 4 million muslims in France in 2022. Metropolitan France (meaning France + Algeria) would have 84.85 million people, so France would be about 28% muslim. If you include the overseas French (Guiana, Comoros, etc) the percentage is about the same. There'd be a lot of assimilation like OTL (by most measures, France has the most integrated muslim community in Europe), and probably more immigration to the Hexagon from Algeria, but I wonder if the average Algerian in French Algeria would assimilate much. Perhaps so in the cities, but I can imagine many US-style disputes about public schooling and how public with one's religion one can be in the schools.

French Algeria reminds me a lot of the American South, honestly.


A little off topic, but if France kept Algeria and Gabon (which wanted to be a French overseas province), France would have more oil than Qatar. If you divide this bigger French population (France plus overseas), that's about 14,677 barrels a day per person - more than Nigeria or the UK, but less than Mexico. France may have the advantage of using less oil because they use nuclear (meaning they'd get more money from exports). Algeria alone would put France around Nigeria. Algeria OTL has 33,205 barrels a day per person. Maybe France could better spend it

I wonder if France retaining Algeria would make it a kind of manufacturing power. Algeria would have lots of cheap labor and the advantage of lower shipping costs compared to places in Asia.


Also, from a humanitarian perspective, it would be a big positive if the Harki who were lynched OTL weren't killed. Perhaps as many as 150,000 were killed following the Algerian War.



France might have a stronger relationship with Israel here, as the Arab states will be much more anti-French if Algeria is still colonized.

I meant "at its peak". Back then, the Muslim percentage would have been lower.
A good point of divergence may be having the separation of church and state on 9 December 1905 extend to Islam. That could secularize Algeria.
Regardless, the Algerian Muslims would always be a minority, which other French could outvote by a wide magin.

 

[Max Sinister]

Looks like that kind of compromise nobody likes.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Looks like that kind of compromise nobody likes.

Isn't that most compromises?

 

[ChrisNuttall]

I don't think there was any sense 'French Algeria' and 'Algerian Algeria' were two separate countries - I think it was always regarded as a united country and splitting it up would not have gone down well. Ireland, but worse.

Chris

 

[Hendryk]

Algeria was a particularly intractable problem for two reasons: first, its legal status as an integral part of France, even though in reality it was very much a colony, and one where a racial caste system was brutally enforced; and second, the presence of a settler population with the same attitude towards the motherland as the Ulster Unionists, and the same sense of entitlement as the Afrikaners. The Pieds-Noirs had a chokehold on the implementation of any reform that the Métropole could come up with, and, in their overwhelming majority, what they wanted was to preserve the status quo at absolutely any cost.

Partitioning Algeria would have been unfeasible on practical grounds, as @Redolegna explained; but it wouldn't even have been seriously considered as an option because nobody wanted it. The Plan Hersant and its later variant the Plan Peyrefitte were political non-starters, only designed out of desperation at the intractability of the issue. Any genuine solution could only involve at the very least equal civil and political rights for the Arab majority on the entirety of the territory, and since the French settler minority was not prepared to accept that, the only outcome short of eternal war was complete independence.

It's possible that there's an ATL out there in which the French managed to thread the needle and give Algeria a devolved or associate status of some sort that proved acceptable to the Arab majority, but the odds were always against it.

 

[ChrisNuttall]

I'm not an expert on the period, but I always had the impression Algeria was a net drain on Paris by that point even without the war. There's a possibility the French Government of the era might decide to say 'hey, the current mess is unsustainable; either you French-Algerians come to terms with the Arabs, or at least work out a way to parition the country, or we'll abandon you to win or die on your own. France does not have the blood and treasure to clean up after people who cannot even hint at compromise.'

I don't know how popular that would be in Paris. There would certainly be charges of betrayal. But would that matter?

Chris

 

[Nyvis]

I'm not an expert on the period, but I always had the impression Algeria was a net drain on Paris by that point even without the war. There's a possibility the French Government of the era might decide to say 'hey, the current mess is unsustainable; either you French-Algerians come to terms with the Arabs, or at least work out a way to parition the country, or we'll abandon you to win or die on your own. France does not have the blood and treasure to clean up after people who cannot even hint at compromise.'

I don't know how popular that would be in Paris. There would certainly be charges of betrayal. But would that matter?

Chris

There's a reason why it took De Gaulle to even consider cutting it loose. And by then half solutions wouldn't provide an answer. And once you get there... Why even bother partitioning it if the pied noirs will be rabidly hostile to any compromise anyway?

 

[Ricardolindo]

There's a reason why it took De Gaulle to even consider cutting it loose. And by then half solutions wouldn't provide an answer. And once you get there... Why even bother partitioning it if the pied noirs will be rabidly hostile to any compromise anyway?

In addition, @LSCatilina, who is of Pied Noirs descent, himself, said at alternatehistory.com that the Pied Noirs weren't really well seen in metropolitan France.

 

[Md139115]

In addition, @LSCatilina, who is of Pied Noirs descent, himself, said at alternatehistory.com that the Pied Noirs weren't really well seen in metropolitan France.

And who cares what he thinks? It would be a bit like me saying “And Ricardolino, who is Portuguese, said on SLP.com that public sympathy for Salazar was less towards the end of his government than is commonly believed.” Regardless of whether it be true or not, do you have the credentials to make such a statement? No. And nor, I strongly suspect, does LSCatalina.

Look, Thande can be cited as one authority among many in certain matters of chemistry because of his professorship in that field, iainbhx can be cited as one authority among many on the political affairs of certain town councils due to his modest political career, and David Flin can be cited as one authority among many of what it’s like to be a soldier in certain situations due to his service record, but everyone else, either here or on AH.com? We’re not experts. At best we are slightly more intelligent parrots giving commentary/criticism on what people actually learned enough to merit citation say, or giving anecdotes of our own personal opinions or observations, knowing (hopefully) that they are not any better or worse than the average person anywhere else. Stop looking for answers here; no one is qualified to give you them and those that claim to be able to should be immediately ignored. Rather, ask for sources or ideas for how to further research the problem, and graciously accept whatever help you get.

 

[Hendryk]

Throughout the Algerian war, the Pieds-Noirs were the tail wagging the proverbial dog. In the Métropole there was no particular emotional investment in the idea that Algeria is part of France--it was something people were taught in school and then didn't think much about. Just as the loss of Indochina didn't cause all that much heartache as there were more pressing issues on people's minds (like a good deal of the population having no proper shelter), Algeria remained something the average French person read about in the news and then went on with their day. What brought the war home was regular conscripts being sent to fight and returning crippled, traumatized or dead. At which point people started asking themselves what the point was, and the only answer they got was "so that a bunch of land grabbers can keep running their white supremacist fiefdom", a less than convincing reason.

The crisis became a war, and the war became a national trauma, because of the oversize lobbying power of the Pieds-Noirs and the support they enjoyed among key elements of the military. That didn't help endear them to the Métropolitan French, and that's before you throw in the attempted military coup and the terrorist campaign of the OAS. Finally, there was the fact that their mass exodus created a huge strain on French infrastructures and services, putting them in competition with the Métropolitan French for housing and welfare assistance.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Throughout the Algerian war, the Pieds-Noirs were the tail wagging the proverbial dog. In the Métropole there was no particular emotional investment in the idea that Algeria is part of France--it was something people were taught in school and then didn't think much about. Just as the loss of Indochina didn't cause all that much heartache as there were more pressing issues on people's minds (like a good deal of the population having no proper shelter), Algeria remained something the average French person read about in the news and then went on with their day. What brought the war home was regular conscripts being sent to fight and returning crippled, traumatized or dead. At which point people started asking themselves what the point was, and the only answer they got was "so that a bunch of land grabbers can keep running their white supremacist fiefdom", a less than convincing reason.

The crisis became a war, and the war became a national trauma, because of the oversize lobbying power of the Pieds-Noirs and the support they enjoyed among key elements of the military. That didn't help endear them to the Métropolitan French, and that's before you throw in the attempted military coup and the terrorist campaign of the OAS. Finally, there was the fact that their mass exodus created a huge strain on French infrastructures and services, putting them in competition with the Métropolitan French for housing and welfare assistance.

Thanks for the explanation.