France doesn't cede Louisiana west of the Mississippi to Spain

[Ricardolindo]

What if France hadn't ceded Louisiana west of the Mississippi to Spain in 1763? Would France have done a better job at developing and settling the colony than Spain?

 

[Ricardolindo]

So, does anyone have any thoughts on this? With French presence west of the Mississippi, would the American Revolution still have happened? I think so. The French possessions would, IMO, considered too distant by American colonists to pose much danger. If the French Revolution isn't butterflied, what would happen to the colony?

 

[SinghSong]

Just what was the maximum extent of Louisiana, prior to them doing so? What was their westernmost settlement, prior to the handover? Assuming that the American Revolution (which seems unlikely to be butterflied away- with the distinct possibility that it may be even more successful ITTL, given that the Imperial French actively supported the American revolutionaries, and went to war with Britain over it) still happens as IOTL, it seems extremely unlikely that the newly independent US of Americans would feel threatened by the French colonial presence there; more like the opposite. It'd be a land border with their earliest and most critical military ally in having won their independence, after all, with their former colonial overlords having near total naval superiority over them.

Having said that though, the French Revolution could well play out very differently to how it played out IOTL, depending upon how TTL's Bourbon War goes with TTL's greatly expanded Louisiana, and just how King Louis XVI (and the French aristocracy) decides to go about developing and settling France's largest remaining imperial colony. For instance, with France continuously wracked by repeated famines, incessant poverty and food shortages, triggering waves of riots (with the Flour War being the most notable of these), what if it was decided to draw partial inspiration from the proposition which James Oglethorpe and other English philanthropists had put forward to secure their royal charter for the youngest, most recently founded of the Thirteen Colonies, the Colony of Georgia- with the French setting about colonizing the remainder of Louisiana, west of the Mississippi, with the "worthy poor" of France, to provide an alternative to the overcrowded debtors' prisons? Perhaps with the extension/transition to penal colony settlements?

Might the French Revolution be slightly weakened, and less successful ITTL (perhaps even enough for the French Royal Family's escape from France to succeed)? Or might it potentially even be butterflied away entirely, by essentially being expatriated to Louisiana instead (which would most likely be the bastion of Republicanist sentiment in French territory due to the influence of, and critical importance of their ties with, the fledgling USA- even more so, in any territories which may be populated by penal colony settlements), with steps taken to prevent it from happening back in France afterward? And if it did- with the French colonies of Louisiana following suit from the Thirteen Colonies to declare their independence in much the same manner (with the British almost certain to offer their support, in a tit-for-tat manner as revenge for the French supporting the Revolutionaries in British North America), in the 1790s- wouldn't the Colonies/States of Louisiana be likely to submit their applications to join the Political Union of the fledgling United States of America? And if they did, how much of an impact might this even more rapid Western expansion, via the union with (as opposed to purchase of) Louisiana, have on US history ITTL?

 

[Ricardolindo]

Just what was the maximum extent of Louisiana, prior to them doing so? What was their westernmost settlement, prior to the handover? Assuming that the American Revolution (which seems unlikely to be butterflied away- with the distinct possibility that it may be even more successful ITTL, given that the Imperial French actively supported the American revolutionaries, and went to war with Britain over it) still happens as IOTL, it seems extremely unlikely that the newly independent US of Americans would feel threatened by the French colonial presence there; more like the opposite. It'd be a land border with their earliest and most critical military ally in having won their independence, after all, with their former colonial overlords having near total naval superiority over them.

Having said that though, the French Revolution could well play out very differently to how it played out IOTL, depending upon how TTL's Bourbon War goes with TTL's greatly expanded Louisiana, and just how King Louis XVI (and the French aristocracy) decides to go about developing and settling France's largest remaining imperial colony. For instance, with France continuously wracked by repeated famines, incessant poverty and food shortages, triggering waves of riots (with the Flour War being the most notable of these), what if it was decided to draw partial inspiration from the proposition which James Oglethorpe and other English philanthropists had put forward to secure their royal charter for the youngest, most recently founded of the Thirteen Colonies, the Colony of Georgia- with the French setting about colonizing the remainder of Louisiana, west of the Mississippi, with the "worthy poor" of France, to provide an alternative to the overcrowded debtors' prisons? Perhaps with the extension/transition to penal colony settlements?

Might the French Revolution be slightly weakened, and less successful ITTL (perhaps even enough for the French Royal Family's escape from France to succeed)? Or might it potentially even be butterflied away entirely, by essentially being expatriated to Louisiana instead (which would most likely be the bastion of Republicanist sentiment in French territory due to the influence of, and critical importance of their ties with, the fledgling USA- even more so, in any territories which may be populated by penal colony settlements), with steps taken to prevent it from happening back in France afterward? And if it did- with the French colonies of Louisiana following suit from the Thirteen Colonies to declare their independence in much the same manner (with the British almost certain to offer their support, in a tit-for-tat manner as revenge for the French supporting the Revolutionaries in British North America), in the 1790s- wouldn't the Colonies/States of Louisiana be likely to submit their applications to join the Political Union of the fledgling United States of America? And if they did, how much of an impact might this even more rapid Western expansion, via the union with (as opposed to purchase of) Louisiana, have on US history ITTL?

The French control over most of the Louisiana Territory was nominal. Regardless, when I talked about Americans considering the French presence in Louisiana a threat, I meant whether that could prevent the Revolution. In our timeline, it happened because the French losing New France made the Americans no longer needed the British for defense. However, as I said, I think French Louisiana would be considered too distant to be much of a threat and, thus, the Revolution would still happen.