Early Tudor succession crisis

[Stateless]

I was thinking back on one of my favourite timelines, Now Blooms the Tudor Rose (by @Space Oddity) and then got onto the frailty of the House of Tudor - despite Henry VII producing three sons, the House was extinct by 1603. And the War of the Roses had severely pruned the Houses of York and Lancaster.

Following the Battle of Bosworth the senior Yorkist claimants are:

• Edward, Earl of Warwick (10 years old and currently residing in the Tower of London).
• John de la Pole, Earl of Lincoln (who did try for the throne, but ostensibly did so in the name of the above Edward).
• Elizabeth of York (Edward IV's surviving daughter, but a woman, so really needs to pump out some sons).

On the Lancastrian side its even worse, as Henry Tudor had a pretty flimsy claim anyway. The main figures beyond Henry Tudor on that side are:

• Charles Somerset (a bastard, legitimised by Act of Parliament following Henry Tudor's accession).
• Edward Stafford (a landless boy, until his father's attainder was reversed by Henry VII).
• Thomas Beaufort (who probably didn't exist, but sometimes gets included in lists of the 2nd Duke of Somerset's children).
• Eleanor Beaufort (a woman, and with only daughters, and an Irish (noble) husband.
• Nicholas St Lawrence (who derives his claim through being the senior legitimate male descendant of John of Gaunt, with a line that goes: John of Gaunt - John Beaufort, Earl of Somerset - Edmund Beaufort, Duke of Somerset - Joan Beaufort - Nicholas St Lawrence. A really minor Irish noble).
• James II of Scotland (a Scot, a foreign king, and one that can't hold his own kingdom together).

I'm not sure if Henry VII named an heir before Arthur's birth - so what if Henry VII wins Bosworth, killing Dicky III, burying him under a car park and locking up Warwick as per OTL, but then pops his clogs before a baby can be popped out. Do we get a Yorkist win by default as Warwick gets released and definitely not done in by fun uncle John de la Pole ("oh whoops looks like I'm king now, what a terrible accident")? Or do the Lancastrians try for "Hey, we've been checking these documents and it turns out Edward Stafford is the king - have Elizabeth of York as a wife, Jasper Tudor as a regent and try not to go hunting until you have a son, we don't want to have to make up that Charles Somerset was legit all this time."?

 

[TR1996]

I've done some exploring of the 'mutual kill at Bosworth' idea, and speculated on a very tense and unstable post-Bosworth scenario where Warwick is King, married to Elizabeth, and regency council shenanigans abound.

Here, however, the Lancastrian party (Jasper, Stanleys, Oxford etc) is in a better position- they have captured the throne, however briefly, and if they manage to secure the Tower then they have Warwick in their possession. If Lincoln is at court, and the Lancastrian party move with sufficient speed and ruthlessness they might be able to nullify him before word of the King's death gets out.

They'd essentially then face a choice between Warwick and Stafford as their puppet child king, married to Elizabeth, with the Lancastrian party being the major figures in the regency. Neither are particularly appealing choices- their fathers were not well-liked. The Lancastrians (and Woodvilles) might find putting a child of the arch-traitor Clarence on the throne distasteful, but Warwick has a stronger claim and is a bit older, so if stability is the goal... Stafford is a bit more well-connected to the wider Lancastrian party, and has a Woodville mother, a decent chunk of Beaufort blood, and Jasper as a step-dad (depending on timeline).

If they manage to lock up Lincoln they'd be able to hopefully muddle forward for a decade until the child king comes of age- and hope that in that decade everyone just sort of accepts the post-Bosworth spoils and balance of power.

If Lincoln escapes he will invariably make trouble- either in his own name, with an impostor as OTL, or trying to claim the regency (his course of action obviously somewhat dependent on whether its Warwick or Stafford on the throne). Lovell, the Stafford bros, and the Scropes would presumably be the major constituency for Lincoln here, and potentially aunty Margaret in Burgundy.

From the 1490s you also get the possibility of Perkin Warbeck or someone with the same idea emerging- and potentially having more success if the English regime is even flimsier than OTL.