Crashing the Party Test Thread

[AndrewH]

Have a thread similar to this on the Other Site - this is just a place focused on a project I've been working on and sketching out for quite a while, and I figured it'd be nice to have a dedicated thread for worldbuilding stuff and drafts meant for it.

Anyways, here's a collection of world leaders I've been sketching out for the TL:


United States of America
1969 - 1973: Nelson Rockefeller / Claude R. Kirk, Jr. (Republican)

defeated, 1968: Hubert Humphrey / Ed Muskie (Democratic), George Wallace / Curtis LeMay (American Independent)​

1973 - 1977: Ronald Reagan / Robert Griffin (Republican)

defeated, 1972: Hubert Humphrey / Frank Church (Democratic), William R. Anderson / Howard J. Samuels (Independent)​

1977 - 1983: Scoop Jackson / Dale Bumpers (Democratic)

defeated, 1976: Ronald Reagan / Robert Griffin (Republican)​

defeated, 1980: Max Rafferty / J. Marshall Coleman (Republican)​

1983 - 1985: Dale Bumpers / Otis Pike (Democratic)
1985 - 1989: William C. Westmoreland / Pete Domenici (Republican)

defeated, 1984: Dale Bumpers / Otis Pike (Democratic)​

1989 - 1991: Mario Cuomo / Martha Layne Collins (Democratic)

defeated, 1988: William C. Westmoreland / Pete Domenici (Republican)​

1991 - 1993: Martha Layne Collins / Andrew Young (Democratic)
1993 - 1993: Ralph Nader / Luis Guiterrez (Independent)

defeated, 1992: Phil Gramm / Helen Chenoweth (Republican), Bill Clinton / Jim Weaver (Democratic)​

1993 - 1997: Ralph Nader / Luis Guiterrez (Peoples')
1997 - 2005: John Kasich / David Koch (Republican)

defeated, 1996: Ralph Nader / Luis Guiterrez (Peoples'), Tom Daschle / John McCain (Democratic)​

defeated, 2000: Gary Hart / Dan Blue (Democratic), Dennis Kucinich / Terence Hallinan (Peoples')​

2005 - 2009: David Koch / Larry Pressler (Republican)

defeated, 2004: Brian Schweitzer / Jim Hightower (Democratic)​

2009 - 2017: Brian Schweitzer / Loretta Sánchez (Democratic)

defeated, 2008: Larry Pressler / John Sweeney (Republican)​

defeated, 2012: Katherine Harris / Jim Jordan (Republican)​

2017 - 2021: Erik Prince / Neil Gorsuch (Republican)

defeated, 2016: Eric Schneiderman / Marcia Fudge (Democratic), Ralph Nader / Kyrsten Sinema (Independent)​

2021 - ???: Erik Prince / Neil Gorsuch (Republican) v. Carmen Yulín Cruz / Bill de Blasio (Democratic)

Canada
1968 - 1972: Pierre Trudeau (Liberal)
1972 - 1977: Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative)

defeated, 1972: Pierre Trudeau (Liberal), David Lewis (New Democratic), Réal Caouette (Social Credit)​

1977 - 1984: Ed Broadbent (New Democratic)

defeated, 1977: Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative), John Turner (Liberal), Réal Caouette (Social Credit)​

defeated, 1981 (Minority): Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative), John Turner (Liberal)​

1983 - 1984: Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative)

defeated, 1983 (Minority): Ed Broadbent (New Democratic), John Turner (Liberal)​

1984 - 1989: Ed Broadbent (New Democratic)

defeated, 1984 (Coalition): Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative), John Turner (Liberal)​

1989 - 1999: John Crosbie (Progressive Conservative)

defeated, 1989 (Coalition): John Turner (Liberal), Bob Clark (Social Credit), Ed Broadbent (New Democratic)​

defeated, 1990: Lloyd Axworthy (Liberal), Dave Barrett (New Democratic), Bob Clark (Social Credit), Jacques Parzieu (PQ), Adriane Carr (Green)​

defeated, 1994: Lloyd Axworthy (Liberal), Jacques Parzieu / Lucien Bouchard / Bernard Landry (PQ), Svend Robinson (New Democratic), Bob Clark (Social Credit), Adriane Carr (Green)​

1997 Quebec Independence Referendum: 50.3% (YES), 49.7% (NO)​

defeated, 1998: Svend Robinson (New Democratic), Art Hanger (Social Credit), Brian Tobin (Liberal), Adriane Carr (Green)​

1999 - 2000: Perrin Beatty (Progressive Conservative)
2000 - 2008: Gordon Wilson (Alliance)

defeated, 2000: Art Hanger (Social Reform), Perrin Beatty (Progressive Conservative), Adriane Carr (Green)​

defeated, 2005: Jan Brown (Social Reform), Nancy MacBeth (Progressive Conservative), David Suzuki (Green)​

2008 - 2015: Jan Brown (Social Reform)

defeated, 2008: Gordon Wilson (Alliance), Nancy MacBeth (Progressive Conservative), Frank de Jong (Green)​

defeated, 2010: Dominic Cardy (Alliance), Nancy MacBeth (Progressive Conservative), Frank de Jong (Green)​

defeated, 2013: Dominic Cardy (Alliance), Jane Sterk (Green), Nancy MacBeth (Progressive Conservative)​

2015 - present: Guy Caron (Alliance)

defeated, 2015: Jan Brown (Social Reform), Jane Sterk (Green)​

France
1969 - 1974: Georges Pompidou (UDR)
1974 - 1981: François Mitterand (PS)
1981 - 1988: Jacques Chirac (UDR)
1988 - 2002: Jean-Pierre Chevènement (PSE)
2002 - 2014: Henri Emmanuelli (PSE)
2014 - 2019: Nicolas Sarkozy (AR)
2019 - present: Christiane Taubira (C)

The United Kingdom
1969 - 1973: Harold Wilson (Labour)

defeated, 1970: Ed Heath (Conservative), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)​

1973 - 1975: Roy Jenkins (Labour)
1975 - 1980: Willie Whitelaw (Conservative)

defeated, 1975: Roy Jenkins (Labour), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)​

1980 - 1987: Michael Foot (Labour)

defeated, 1980: Willie Whitelaw (Conservative), John Pardoe (Liberal)​

defeated, 1985: Nicholas Ridley (Conservative), Clement Freud (Liberal)​

1987 - 1990: Robin Cook (Labour)
1990 - 1998: John Moore (Conservative)

defeated, 1990: Robin Cook (Labour), Alan Beith (Liberal)​

defeated, 1993: Robin Cook (Labour), Alan Beith (Liberal)​

1998 - 2003: Chris Mullin (Labour)

defeated, 1998: John Moore (Conservative), Charles Kennedy / Jackie Ballard (Democratic), Alan Beith (Liberal)​

2003 - 2006: Robert Kilroy-Silk (Conservative)

defeated, 2003 (Minority with DUP Confidence and Supply): Chris Mullin (Labour), Charles Kennedy (Democratic), Adair Turner (Britain in Europe!)​

2006 - 2010: Alex Salmond (Labour)

defeated, 2006: Robert Kilroy-Silk (Conservative), Charles Kennedy (Democratic)​

2010 - 2015: Liam Fox (Conservative)

defeated, 2010: Alex Salmond (Labour), Chris Huhne (Democratic - Huhne's Team)​

2015 - 2017: Caroline Spelman (Conservative)

defeated, 2015 (Minority): Phil Woolas (Labour), Martin Horwood (Democratic)​

2017 - 2018: Parmjit Dhanda (Labour)

defeated, 2017 (Minority) : Ann Widdecombe (National), Caroline Spelman (Conservative) Tessa Munt (Democratic)​

2018 - present: Ann Widdecombe (National)

defeated, 2018 (Unite the Right Coalition): Parmjit Dhanda (Labour), David Davis (Conservative) ​

Italy
1968 - 1970: Mariano Rumor (DC)
1970 - 1973: Emilio Colombo (DC)

defeated, 1972: Enrico Berlinguer (PCI), Francesco de Martino (PSI)​

1973 - 1975: Flaminio Piccoli (DC)
1975 - 1976: Giulio Andreotti (DC)
1976 - 1976: Flaminio Piccoli (DC)
1976 - 1991: Gianni Agnelli (Terza Forza)

defeated, 1976: Enrico Berlinguer (PCI), Flaminio Piccoli (DC), Francesco de Martino (PSI)​

defeated, 1980: Enrico Berlinguer (PCI), Massimo Anderson (MSI), Arnaldo Forlani (DC) Enrico Manca (PSI)​

defeated, 1983: Enrico Berlinguer (PCI), Massimo Anderson (MSI), Carlo Donat-Cattin (Forze Nuove)​

defeated, 1987: Alfredo Reichlin (PCI), Giuseppe Tatarella (MSI), Carlo Donat-Cattin (FN), Gianfranco Fini (DN)​

1991 - 1994: Gianfranco Fini (DN)

defeated, 1991: Alfredo Reichlin (PCI), Gianni Agnelli (TF), Pino Rauti (MSI)​

1994 - 1996: Fausto Bertinotti (PCI)

defeated, 1994: Pier Ferdinando Casini (TF), Gianfranco Fini (DN), Mino Martinazzoli (RD)​

1996 - 2005: Lamberto Dini (Riforma e Democrazia)

defeated, 1996: Fausto Bertinotti (PCI), Gianfranco Fini (DN)​

defeated, 2001: Fausto Bertinotti (PCI), Mario Landolfi (DN), Gianfranco Fini (AdL)​

defeated, 2004: Fausto Bertinotti (S), Mario Landolfi (DN), Gianfranco Fini (AdL), Walter Veltroni (PDS)​

2005 - 2007: Enrico Letta (RD)
2007 - 2011: Fausto Bertinotti (Solidarietà)

defeated, 2007: Gianfranco Fini (AdL), Enrico Letta (RD), Ignazio la Russa (DN), Walter Veltroni (PDS)​

2011 - 2013: Gianfranco Fini (Generazione Ora)

defeated, 2011: Fausto Bertinotti (S), Guido Crosetto (DN), Walter Veltroni (PDS)​

2013 - 2015: Mario Baldassarri (GO)
2015 - 2016: Clemente Mastella (GO)

defeated, 2015: Laura Boldrini (S), Guido Crosetto (DN)​

2016 - 2016: Clemente Mastella (RD)
2016 - present: Luigi de Magistris (S)

defeated, 2016: Nello Musumeci (DN), Gianfranco Fini (GO), Clemente Mastella (RD - Lista Mastella), Matteo Richetti (SD)​

...

Japan
1993 - 1996: Ichiro Ozawa (New)
1993 - 2005: (LDP)
2005 - 2007: Ichiro Ozawa (Democratic)
2007 - 2009: (LDP)
2009 - 2013: Katsuya Okada (Renewal)
2013 - 2020: (LDP)
2020 - present: (LDP)
defeated, 2020: Kazuo Shii (JCP)

China
1949 - 1976: Mao Zedong (CCP)
1976 - 1977: Jiang Qing (CCP)
1977 - 1989: Deng Xiaoping (CCP)
1989 - 1998: Li Peng (CCP)
1998 - 1998: Wang Zhaoguo (CCP)
1998 - 2011: Zhu Rongji (CCP)
2011 - 2017: Bo Xilai (CCP)
2017 - present Wang Qishan (CCP)

South Korea
1962 - 1992: Park Chung-hee (Democratic Republican)

defeated, 1971: Kim Dae-jung (New Democratic)​

1992 - 1993: Chung Ho-yong (Military)
1993 - 2003: Kim Dae-jung (National)

defeated, 1993: Park Tae-jun (Democratic Reform), Kim Young-sam (New Korea)​

defeated, 1998: Kim Young-sam (Liberal Democratic)​

 

[AndrewH]

World​

The early 90's were the largest period of international upheaval since the late 60's - the new global economy of free trade, technological advancement, and intense second and third-world development that had been built since the fall of the Bretton-Woods system seemingly collapsed overnight, as a combination of a collapse in asset prices, the burst of the Silicon Bubble centered around software development in Boston, tightening monetary policy worldwide and the lingering after-effects of the Syrian War caused the largest downturn since the stagflation crisis of the 70's (the argument over whether the 90's recession was the worst since the Great Depression is still a subject of heated debate). The political effects were immense - Gianni Agnelli's stranglehold on Italian politics was shattered after losing his own seat and being reduced to just a (very rich) man, Zhu Rongji began his long ascent to the top of the CCP thanks to his work in creating the 'Shanghai Miracle,' Jean-Pierre Chevènement used France's economic woes to successfully withdraw from the EEC, and most famously, the recession brought about end of the brutal dictatorship in South Korea.​

​

...​

​

Collins​

Cuomo's resignation, little more than a formality by that summer, was a drawn-out and pompous affair, befitting the man. After a little over two years of constant politicking, national protests and federal gridlock, Cuomo's once sky-high poll numbers had been dragged back down to the Earth, with only one-in-four Americans approving of the President - so Cuomo would put on a show for that 25%. Openly mocking the Republican "vision of a shining city on a hill" that had been splashed across every TV in the nation during the 1990 Midterms, Cuomo bitterly defended his record while warning against "Republican partisanship, dishonesty and legal prejudice," a surprisingly prescient comment given what we now know about Dick Thornburgh (many conservatives and conspiracy theorists have taken the comments as a sign that Cuomo and the "DEMONcrats" were plotting to defame and ruin Thornburgh from the moment he was named Special Counsel). It was a shockingly vicious affair from a man who won the Presidency thanks to his soaring optimism and gifted rhetoric, and the contrast between the jaded and cynical man of June 2nd, 1991 and the gracious President-in-waiting of November 9th, 1988 served as the linchpin of a litany of TV documentaries and written retrospectives about the Cuomo Administration.​

​

But no matter how you felt about the outgoing President, at least it was over. Martha Layne Collins, press darling and the "spunky" (a word that would go out of favor in American political discourse after Gloria Steinem raised issues with its sexist undertones) girl wonder of Democratic politics, seemed to be the perfect woman to heal the country's wounds after the scandal, division and general "bad vibes" of the 1980's. While Cuomo was a passionate liberal who was not above getting his hands dirty in political mudslinging, Collins cut a decisively nonpartisan figure who was known for expanding the role of the government in public education along with a traditional social conservatism and a firm anti-labor record. While many avowed partisans were deeply unsettled by this upjumped Southerner who couldn't easily be pinned down, Collins adept skill at avoiding the traditional labels of American politics proved to be her greatest asset. In her first national address, Collins' statement that "the essence of leadership is not contentment with the status quo; leadership, true and genuine leadership, is the ability to push beyond what is convenient and what is expected of you to do what is right" soothed a weary public looking to move on from the chaos of the past decade and inspired a generation of women to break convention and start a career in politics.​

​

It was too bad for Collins that her Presidency didn't end right there - for a brief time in the summer of 1991 she was the most popular President since Franklin Roosevelt, polling in the high 70's with significant cross-party support. However, she had a country to govern, and the machinations of both Republicans and Democrats, her own missteps and her husband would lead to Collins' downfall and the destruction of the Fifth Party System.​

​

...​

Nader​

...With President Collins rendered inert with the 'Silicon Recession' and First Man Billy's financial indiscretions, Bill Clinton hamstrung with his own sexual misconduct and good ol' boy reputation, and Phil Gramm reeling from the press storm surrounding Special Counsel Thornburgh (AUTHOR'S NOTE: I'm toying with replacing Thornburgh with Bill Barr or Ken Starr, but either man seems unfit or unlikely to become a Special Counsel during the late 80's and early 90's - if you're reading this, please sound off and let me know what you think) while dealing with deep-seated fatigue with the GOP, the perfect set of circumstances had been created for one man to completely upend American politics: Ralph Nader.​

​

Nader is one of the most idiosyncratic figures in the history of a deeply idiosyncratic country - he, most often through sheer stubbornness, had taken the center stage in American politics for over thirty years. Nader first gained a national profile with his shocking polemic Unsafe at Any Speed, becoming an overnight celebrity, Congressional witness and target of General Motors after tearing into major American car manufacturers for not incorporating safety measures into their vehicles, letting thousands die needlessly every year so they could pinch a few extra pennies. After a nationwide college tour in 1968, a young group of devotees and lawyers who wanted to work for the man himself became "Nader's Raiders," leading an aggressive campaign for consumer protection against Big Business and the federal government - and in 1971, they stumbled onto the political scandal of a lifetime. While jokes about President Rockefeller treating the U.S. Treasury as just another branch of Chase-Manhattan Bank, they were the first to discover actual evidence of Rockefeller's impropriety, which at least partially helped in Rockefeller's flop in the Republican primaries next year. While more than a handful of wiseass pundits blamed Nader for electing Ronald Reagan, the American public viewed him as some sort of modern day crusader - buttons and fliers for "Nader '76" were all the rage on campuses during the Reagan years, although Nader himself said "politics and justice are irreconcilable" and reaffirmed his relationship to the Center for Study of Responsive Law (the formal organization Nader and his Raiders formed in 1969). While his work during the Jackson Administration didn't get the same level of attention it was no less impactful, as Nader led successful efforts to ban smoking on all domestic and international flights, to pass statewide Bottle Bills across the East Coast and to strengthen the Freedom of Information Act.​

​

After two consecutive failed drafts in 1980 and '84, Nader agreed to run for President with the nascent Green Party after the assassination of Jesse Jackson. While the passionate and warm Jackson had no trouble drawing crowds wherever he went, Nader's flat affect made things difficult for his campaign, to say nothing about his authoritative attitude towards his own volunteers and his frugality with campaign finances. ...​

 

[Time Enough]

2006 - 2010: Alex Salmond (Labour)

Well this is fucking horrible, still looks interesting.

 

[AndrewH]

Well this is fucking horrible, still looks interesting.

Yeah, it's not great. The modern UK is pretty grim ITTL and in OTL, but hey at least you get ten years of Labour consensus and Footite Chris Mullin for your troubles!

 

[Time Enough]

Yeah, it's not great. The modern UK is pretty grim ITTL and in OTL, but hey at least you get ten years of Labour consensus and Footite Chris Mullin for your troubles!

True, there is that. Also Footite Chris Mullin is always fun, actually Chris Mullin in general is always fun.

 

[AndrewH]

Results of the 1994 Italian General Election

Spoiler: LARGE IMAGE!

 

[AndrewH]

Just noticed I got a rare @aurinoko like on the OP - since I know you're more familiar with both nations than I am and I enjoy hearing your thoughts about these types of things, do the South Korea and France lists seem plausible and not too stupid?

 

[aurinoko]

Just noticed I got a rare @aurinoko like on the OP - since I know you're more familiar with both nations than I am and I enjoy hearing your thoughts about these types of things, do the South Korea and France lists seem plausible and not too stupid?

Haha, I'm nowhere near knowledgeable in French politics, but it is interesting you chose to give the Gaullist Barons another chance by putting Debre as the president in the 1980s. If the 1974 election match-up went OTL, that would have been a huge vindication for the Common Program and the Union of the Left. But then again, Reagan in the White House and Tory government in the UK 4 years early is not exactly a great sign for him. I guess I'm mostly seeing a further reduction of the influence of Atlanticism and liberalism in French mainstream politics. Adding to it, full-14 year-long presidency of Chevènement, Frexit makes a certain sense. However, I think there should be a certain moment in -maybe during the Mitterand presidency?- that kills French left's pro-European tendency. Emmanuelli, for example, was not exactly a Eurosceptic, despite his support for "No" during the 2005 referendum - I can already hear @Redolegna coming my way. Is Hulot impeached in this timeline? - and Taubira as Macron, love it.

South Korea, I'm seeing a lot of bloodbaths and the delayed death of a sclerotic military dictatorship. Park Tae-jun is an inspired choice as an acceptable face of Neo-Park Chung-hee-ism. It works, but I'm not sure what kind of trajectory Kim Young-sam would go down in this timeline. Because Park Chung-hee was facing tremendous https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bu-Ma_Democratic_Protestscivil unrest in the Southeastern cities like Busan by the time he was shot in 1979. Park's hardline* against the protest contributed to Kim Jae-gyu's decision to assassinate Park. So we could very well see Busan as the site of the bloody massacre in 1979 or 1980, instead of Gwangju, with Kim Young-sam emerging as the martyr.

*Epitomized by Cha Ji-chul, Presidential Chief of Security's remark on the night of the assassination that Park just has to kill couple hundreds of thousands, which is "nothing compared to Khmer Rouge."

 

[Redolegna]

Several things.

Mitterrand winning in 1974, not implausible. Michel Debré in 1981 is a bit weird. It would have to be if Chaban and Chirac destroyed each other mutually in the UDR. Or Chirac leaving in a badly-timed way founding the RPR and it failing to take off. However, there wouldn't be an EU for Chevènement to take France out of, because between Debré being a Gaullist of the old school and Chevènement not wanting anything new, it would remain the EEC. A badly hampered one where the SEA doesn't even exist, but one with France in it still, I believe. Emmanuelli, sure, why not, he could do better in a party where euroscepticism would be stronger. What does the E stand for in PSE? There is the PS, the PSU of Rocard, but I don't know of any PSE, unless the irony would be to be European... oh, with Hulot later in it, is it Ecologique? That's a relatively new orientation for the PS but could work.

Further, by keeping the terms for the French Presidency as it is, you posit that the referendum on shortening the term from seven to five years did happen, and on the same schedule? It's not really a thing I envision Chevènement presiding over.

Hulot, what's the deal with him for only two years? He's an opportunist, so give him a Green-ish vehicle to adhere to, he'll join and find a way high. Without Chirac, Sarkozy might need a bit more time to climb, but likewise he knows how to get power. He'll find the person to suck up to. France under a left-wing party for twenty-six years is going to be well weird.

If Taubira is a centrist, we'll have very strong words.



And Chevènement in power during the nineties... wouldn't want to be a Bosnian or a Kosovar in this timeline.

 

[AndrewH]

Several things.

Mitterrand winning in 1974, not implausible. Michel Debré in 1981 is a bit weird. It would have to be if Chaban and Chirac destroyed each other mutually in the UDR. Or Chirac leaving in a badly-timed way founding the RPR and it failing to take off. However, there wouldn't be an EU for Chevènement to take France out of, because between Debré being a Gaullist of the old school and Chevènement not wanting anything new, it would remain the EEC. A badly hampered one where the SEA doesn't even exist, but one with France in it still, I believe. Emmanuelli, sure, why not, he could do better in a party where euroscepticism would be stronger. What does the E stand for in PSE? There is the PS, the PSU of Rocard, but I don't know of any PSE, unless the irony would be to be European... oh, with Hulot later in it, is it Ecologique? That's a relatively new orientation for the PS but could work.

Further, by keeping the terms for the French Presidency as it is, you posit that the referendum on shortening the term from seven to five years did happen, and on the same schedule? It's not really a thing I envision Chevènement presiding over.

Hulot, what's the deal with him for only two years? He's an opportunist, so give him a Green-ish vehicle to adhere to, he'll join and find a way high. Without Chirac, Sarkozy might need a bit more time to climb, but likewise he knows how to get power. He'll find the person to suck up to. France under a left-wing party for twenty-six years is going to be well weird.

If Taubira is a centrist, we'll have very strong words.



And Chevènement in power during the nineties... wouldn't want to be a Bosnian or a Kosovar in this timeline.

ah fuck I was in the middle of responding to Aurinoko, so I'll try and respond to everything here in a bit! Thanks for the in-depth responses guys!

france is still sketches at this point, so I really appreciate the feedback - Debre is mostly a placeholder from an old draft for France, but he seemed to fit the role of a French president who wants to rebuild ties with the Americans after Mitterrand's icy relationship with Presidents Jackson and Reagan.

 

[aurinoko]

Several things.

Mitterrand winning in 1974, not implausible. Michel Debré in 1981 is a bit weird. It would have to be if Chaban and Chirac destroyed each other mutually in the UDR. Or Chirac leaving in a badly-timed way founding the RPR and it failing to take off. However, there wouldn't be an EU for Chevènement to take France out of, because between Debré being a Gaullist of the old school and Chevènement not wanting anything new, it would remain the EEC.

This is a very good point. Although I guess I could see Gaullist desire for an independent European power bloc spurring a more security-focused European bloc.

 

[Redolegna]

This is a very good point. Although I guess I could see Gaullist desire for an independent European power bloc spurring a more security-focused European bloc.

Not with Debré. Called the attempt by the government of Mendès to bring about the EDC treason.

 

[AndrewH]

Haha, I'm nowhere near knowledgeable in French politics, but it is interesting you chose to give the Gaullist Barons another chance by putting Debre as the president in the 1980s. If the 1974 election match-up went OTL, that would have been a huge vindication for the Common Program and the Union of the Left. But then again, Reagan in the White House and Tory government in the UK 4 years early is not exactly a great sign for him. I guess I'm mostly seeing a further reduction of the influence of Atlanticism and liberalism in French mainstream politics. Adding to it, full-14 year-long presidency of Chevènement, Frexit makes a certain sense. However, I think there should be a certain moment in -maybe during the Mitterand presidency?- that kills French left's pro-European tendency. Emmanuelli, for example, was not exactly a Eurosceptic, despite his support for "No" during the 2005 referendum - I can already hear @Redolegna coming my way. Is Hulot impeached in this timeline? - and Taubira as Macron, love it.

As i mentioned to Redolegna, France is mostly a rough draft at this point and won't play a major role in the TL (for now - obviously things could change), but the Programme Commun was a big part of why I picked Chevènement, actually. I haven't figured out what exactly kills off pro-europeanism in the French left (good point there) given the Programme's support for closer ties with the EEC, but in my notes I had Mitterand's icy relations with Whitelaw and with Presidents Reagan and Jackson (leading to France not outright withdrawing from NATO like in the Progamme but distancing themselves dramatically from the U.S.) along with divisions within the PS and problems implementing major parts of the Programme leading Chevènement to lead a sort-of hostile takeover of PS, rebrand it to snuff out a growing Green movement (which is a bigger deal on the continent ITTL) and the French left to turn souverainist.

Hulot was Emmanuelli's successor after the stresses of the Presidency and his "degenerative neuropathy" (relying on French sources for this, haven't been able to find a good translation that describes exactly what he suffered from) leads to death a few years earlier. I had Hulot slotted in as President of the Senate, but after reading Redolegna's post I get the impression that Hulot isn't a good fit and I should read a bit more about him.

Several things.

Mitterrand winning in 1974, not implausible. Michel Debré in 1981 is a bit weird. It would have to be if Chaban and Chirac destroyed each other mutually in the UDR. Or Chirac leaving in a badly-timed way founding the RPR and it failing to take off. However, there wouldn't be an EU for Chevènement to take France out of, because between Debré being a Gaullist of the old school and Chevènement not wanting anything new, it would remain the EEC. A badly hampered one where the SEA doesn't even exist, but one with France in it still, I believe. Emmanuelli, sure, why not, he could do better in a party where euroscepticism would be stronger. What does the E stand for in PSE? There is the PS, the PSU of Rocard, but I don't know of any PSE, unless the irony would be to be European... oh, with Hulot later in it, is it Ecologique? That's a relatively new orientation for the PS but could work.

Further, by keeping the terms for the French Presidency as it is, you posit that the referendum on shortening the term from seven to five years did happen, and on the same schedule? It's not really a thing I envision Chevènement presiding over.

Hulot, what's the deal with him for only two years? He's an opportunist, so give him a Green-ish vehicle to adhere to, he'll join and find a way high. Without Chirac, Sarkozy might need a bit more time to climb, but likewise he knows how to get power. He'll find the person to suck up to. France under a left-wing party for twenty-six years is going to be well weird.

If Taubira is a centrist, we'll have very strong words.



And Chevènement in power during the nineties... wouldn't want to be a Bosnian or a Kosovar in this timeline.

A lot of things you talk about here I addressed briefly earlier, but the EU bit was a mistake, should've read EEC. Basically Frexit, lot of pushback against France's involvement with the EEC and the Americans after Debre (who I'm probably going to replace after reading your comments) leads France to join an alt-Coalition of the Willing under President Westmoreland in a military intervention in Syria, which goes disastrously.

The referendum happens under Emmanuelli actually, had it slotted in at about 2008-2009 but the exact year doesn't matter too much to me. You're dead-on about the E in PSE, hence Hulot - in my old notes Chirac played a much bigger role, but I agree with your point that Sarkozy would find somebody to boost him. Taubira isn't centrist, but I figured that she's probably positioning herself as the middle-ground between the PSE and the Republican Alliance (name doesn't matter, Sarkozy's party basically). You'd probably be very happy as I'd imagine Hamon would have a signifcant role in her government.

South Korea, I'm seeing a lot of bloodbaths and the delayed death of a sclerotic military dictatorship. Park Tae-jun is an inspired choice as an acceptable face of Neo-Park Chung-hee-ism. It works, but I'm not sure what kind of trajectory Kim Young-sam would go down in this timeline. Because Park Chung-hee was facing tremendous civil unrest in the Southeastern cities like Busan by the time he was shot in 1979. Park's hardline* against the protest contributed to Kim Jae-gyu's decision to assassinate Park. So we could very well see Busan as the site of the bloody massacre in 1979 or 1980, instead of Gwangju, with Kim Young-sam emerging as the martyr.

*Epitomized by Cha Ji-chul, Presidential Chief of Security's remark on the night of the assassination that Park just has to kill couple hundreds of thousands, which is "nothing compared to Khmer Rouge."

Yeah, Tae-jun jumped out of the screen when I first learned about him, struck me as a really interesting guy. I think your comments about Young-sam particularly stand out to me, his legacy would be interesting with Park Chung-hee's decaying dictatorship limping on for another decade - how do you think the public would react to Park Chung-hee's brutal crackdown on the protesters in a world where he never gets shot and lives past October 1979?

 

[Nanwe]

This is a very good point. Although I guess I could see Gaullist desire for an independent European power bloc spurring a more security-focused European bloc.

I think that's hard. In many ways, Debré was more Gaullist than De Gaulle.

Not with Debré. Called the attempt by the government of Mendès to bring about the EDC treason.

I wouldn't call the CED treason. But in any case, PMF was probably a timid anti-cédiste, let's remember he was also fairly opposed to to the EEC, on the ground that France's economic structure wasn't ready for it.

 

[aurinoko]

Not with Debré. Called the attempt by the government of Mendès to bring about the EDC treason.

« À la ruse des supranationaux s'ajoute l'irréalisme de certains professeurs qui, avec leur théorie sur la hiérarchie des sources de droit, outre qu'ils se placent hors la tradition des légistes de France et qu'ils négligent le problème essentiel de la légitimité du pouvoir, manifestent une incompréhension totale du monde tel qu'il est. [...] Ma colère éclate contre ces notables si peu au fait de l'histoire, des réalités du présent, des exigences de demain – bref, si peu conscients de la France éternelle. »
lmao, okay, I see Debré was "would have joined the OAS if not for an extremely personal relationship with De Gaulle" kind of Gaullist.

 

[Redolegna]

I think that's hard. In many ways, Debré was more Gaullist than De Gaulle.



I wouldn't call the CED treason. But in any case, PMF was probably a timid anti-cédiste, let's remember he was also fairly opposed to to the EEC, on the ground that France's economic structure wasn't ready for it.

Got my words or my Presidents of the Council mixed, Debré was the one who called the idea of getting into the EDC treason.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

What grim meathook dystopia is this?

 

[Nanwe]

Got my words or my Presidents of the Council mixed, Debré was the one who called the idea of getting into the EDC treason.

Oh yeah, and frankly that probably wasn't the strongest words he had for it.

« À la ruse des supranationaux s'ajoute l'irréalisme de certains professeurs qui, avec leur théorie sur la hiérarchie des sources de droit, outre qu'ils se placent hors la tradition des légistes de France et qu'ils négligent le problème essentiel de la légitimité du pouvoir, manifestent une incompréhension totale du monde tel qu'il est. [...] Ma colère éclate contre ces notables si peu au fait de l'histoire, des réalités du présent, des exigences de demain – bref, si peu conscients de la France éternelle. »
lmao, okay, I see Debré was "would have joined the OAS if not for an extremely personal relationship with De Gaulle" kind of Gaullist.

Oh for sure. He was a big-time Algérie française guy.

Also fairly anti-European (this is from the EDC debate record in the Conseil de la République back in 1953):

"J'ajoute que ce système — nous le voyons chaque jour à Strasbourg — ne peut pas être démocratique, car, à la base d'une communauté, à la base d'un gouvernement démocratique, il faut la solidarité nationale préalablement ressentie. C'est elle seule qui permet les mécanismes délicats de la démocratie, le jeu des élections à la majorité, la possibilité pour un gouvernement d'émaner d'une assemblée, d'être renversé à la simple majorité par une assemblée. La démocratie supranationale est un tel risque d'anarchie que si autorité il y a, elle est technocratique et tyrannique. C est bien ce que nous commentons à voir.

Le régime de l'Europe fondée sur le transfert de souverainetés est donc à la fois contre nature, contre les intérêts français, ■contre ceux de la liberté. Il faut revenir à la réalité. Cette réalité est simple, cette réalité est claire. Il faut le dire en face de tous les théologiens de la petite Europe. L'Europe n'est pas une nation, elle est une addition de nations. L'Europe n'est pas un État, elle est un assemblage d'Etats. C'est en fonction de cette réalité qu'il faut organiser l'Europe.

Je l'ai dit et bien souvent répété, je ne cesserai de le dire et de le répéter: la seule autorité légitime en Europe, c'est la réunion régulière des chefs de gouvernement acceptant, sur certains problèmes, de ne plus prendre de décision isolément et de s'entendre avant toute décision. En face de celte autorité — la seule légitime dans notre système de démocratie européenne — une assemblée qui ne peut pas être une assemblée du type d'un État unitaire, c'est-à-dire une assemblée pouvant faire des lois, renverser les gouvernements, mais une assemblée du type des communautés en formation comme étaient les Etats généraux de l'ancien régime, c'est-à-dire une assemblée à pouvoir financier et, le cas échéant, chargée d'assurer le respect du pacte constitutionnel qui lierait les différentes nations.

Dans un tel système la Grande-Bretagne peut être associée à part entière. Il n'y a pas coupure de l'Union française. Le pouvoir reste dans les mains- d'où il ne devrait pas tomber d'ici longtemps, c'est-à-dire aux représentants légitimes des démocraties nationales."

 

[aurinoko]

Yeah, Tae-jun jumped out of the screen when I first learned about him, struck me as a really interesting guy. I think your comments about Young-sam particularly stand out to me, his legacy would be interesting with Park Chung-hee's decaying dictatorship limping on for another decade - how do you think the public would react to Park Chung-hee's brutal crackdown on the protesters in a world where he never gets shot and lives past October 1979?

The repercussion of the massacre in Southeast would be long-lasting that's for sure. I think there are two factors that one has to consider when thinking about the political crisis Park Chung-hee faced in the late 1970s. The US-ROK relationship had broken down OTL, a significant reduction of US forces in ROK was proposed under Carter admin, and carried out. Obviously, with Reagan - Jackson combo, this would not be a significant factor. Nevertheless, considering Park Chung-hee secretly harbored the ambition of nuclear arsenal well into the late 1970s, I think you can go absolutely buck-wild with this. Furthermore, the South Korean economy hit a snag by the late 1970s, coming out of (second) 1979- 1980 Oil Crisis.

If Park Chung-hee crushes the Bu-Ma protests then Kim Young-sam will follow the same path Kim Dae-jung followed post- Gwangju. He'd be jailed, likely sentenced to death, depending on where you want to go with the story, he could be released and allowed a life of an exile in the US. At this point, I think American intervention in the early 1980s is probably necessary for the narrative to not go Nazi-Korea. Protests will die down, especially with American support intact, some form of liberalization may follow - so Kim Dae-jung, under house arrest since 1979 -OTL- doesn't get killed- and OTL Chun Doo-hwan era economic growth gets replicated, allowing the regime to continue on. Nevertheless, economic growth would be lower than OTL with Park Chung-hee's hands-on approach continuing, sinking money on unviable heavy industry investments, etc... The election of Mario Cuomo in the US could replicate OTL Carter- Park dynamics, with Park Chung-hee doing some potentially truly wild stuff - nuclear Korea, but South!- and Kim Young-sam returning to South Korea in 1989 - 1990 under heavy American support, tightly connected to the Democratic Party in his exile* while Park Chung-hee desperately trying to stay afloat. The ROK Army, sensing the end, coups the elderly president, but the election of Nader in 1993 unravels everything. In this timeline, the 1988 Seoul Olympic doesn't happen, the country wouldn't be that different from Condor regimes in Southern cones, with some strong cult of personality mixed in. Don't think I'd like this version of South Korea.

*When Kim Dae-jung returned from his exile in 1985, Ted Kennedy was among the supporters who flew into Seoul with him

 

[AndrewH]

The repercussion of the massacre in Southeast would be long-lasting that's for sure. I think there are two factors that one has to consider when thinking about the political crisis Park Chung-hee faced in the late 1970s. The US-ROK relationship had broken down OTL, a significant reduction of US forces in ROK was proposed under Carter admin, and carried out. Obviously, with Reagan - Jackson combo, this would not be a significant factor. Nevertheless, considering Park Chung-hee secretly harbored the ambition of nuclear arsenal well into the late 1970s, I think you can go absolutely buck-wild with this. Furthermore, the South Korean economy hit a snag by the late 1970s, coming out of (second) 1979- 1980 Oil Crisis.

I'm digging the idea of a nuclear Korea - correct me if I'm wrong or off-base (and it certainly wouldn't shock me if Park Chung-hee made it public), but I'd imagine a nuclearized ROK in these conditions would be deliberately ambiguous and vague about their nuclear capabilities, with obvious parallels to how the Israelis operate. You mentioned American intervention, and while I wouldn't completely write off Jackson doing something truly crazy, I would think it would be economic sanctions, maybe empty threats to pull American bases out of the region (this one I really doubt and view as kind of a last resort, but it's on the table), diplomatic pressure etc. etc.

If Park Chung-hee crushes the Bu-Ma protests then Kim Young-sam will follow the same path Kim Dae-jung followed post- Gwangju. He'd be jailed, likely sentenced to death, depending on where you want to go with the story, he could be released and allowed a life of an exile in the US. At this point, I think American intervention in the early 1980s is probably necessary for the narrative to not go Nazi-Korea. Protests will die down, especially with American support intact, some form of liberalization may follow - so Kim Dae-jung, under house arrest since 1979 -OTL- doesn't get killed- and OTL Chun Doo-hwan era economic growth gets replicated, allowing the regime to continue on. Nevertheless, economic growth would be lower than OTL with Park Chung-hee's hands-on approach continuing, sinking money on unviable heavy industry investments, etc... The election of Mario Cuomo in the US could replicate OTL Carter- Park dynamics, with Park Chung-hee doing some potentially truly wild stuff - nuclear Korea, but South!- and Kim Young-sam returning to South Korea in 1989 - 1990 under heavy American support, tightly connected to the Democratic Party in his exile* while Park Chung-hee desperately trying to stay afloat. The ROK Army, sensing the end, coups the elderly president, but the election of Nader in 1993 unravels everything. In this timeline, the 1988 Seoul Olympic doesn't happen, the country wouldn't be that different from Condor regimes in Southern cones, with some strong cult of personality mixed in. Don't think I'd like this version of South Korea.

*When Kim Dae-jung returned from his exile in 1985, Ted Kennedy was among the supporters who flew into Seoul with him

So both Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam in either exile or house arrest, maybe flip the roles so Young-sam is the one in America and Dae-jung is under house arrest? Either way everything you say here is really interesting and works well - Cuomo is elected (in part) to the backlash against Westmoreland's adventurist disaster in Syria (there's a good bit I had written but lost on an old flash drive about how the guy synonymous with the blunders in Vietnam leads to a shorter and even worse war against al-Assad) and is talking a big talk about human rights, rethinking the "post-Kennedy foreign policy consensus" and America's place on the world stage, so I think a cooling of relations between Park Chung-hee and Cuomo is right on the money. Collins isn't much of a foreign policy President but she leaves her mark on the State Department by clearing out a lot of the old Cuomo appointments and bringing veterans from the Jackson Administration, so I think that would play a part in the military's justification for moving against Park Chung-hee. As you said, Nader blows everything up and then you see democratic liberalization under Dae-jung, the not quite but close enough 'continuity candidate' with Park Tae-jun and everything afterwards. I wonder how, if there would be any difference, the chaebols would react and operate in this very different Korea, especially considering how relatively isolated it might have been during Park Chung-hee's post-massacre mania and during the Cuomo Administration, plus the whole "nuclear ROK" thing.

I'm also really interested in your thoughts about a sort-of Truth and Reconcilliation Commission or CONADEP analogue under Kim Dae-jung early in his Administration - your comparison to Operation Condor made me think a lot about post-Junta Argentina, and I could easily see Kim Dae-jung and pressure from a Nader State Department leading the ROK to begin investigating the crimes of the dictatorship (particularly the massacre given the lasting legacy that event would have) and prosecuting the remaining officers, officials, bureaucrats and stooges that enabled Park Chung-hee's atrocities ITTL and go further than Kim Young-sam did in OTL.