Ceausescu Lives On Scenarios

[rfmcdonald]

I understand that, in the late 1980s, Hungarian reformists were actually considering that they might want to keep Soviet troops in-country precisely to deter Ceaucescu.

This TL may well be one in which you get a substantially greater exodus of ethnic Hungarians, possibly to the point of leading to the minority's practical disapprarance. That is what happened with the Germans and the Jews. My concern is that early 1990s Hungary is much poorer than Germany or Israel, and will have many more problems absorbing a sizable refugee influx.

 

[rfmcdonald]

Or that it collapses economically during the late Nineties.

The way I see things going though is :

-Ceasca goes too far,gets couped in late '90/early '91

-Gușă remains as an interim leader til he hands over power to Iliescu and his cronies after things are stable in 2-3 days or elections happen in 6 months time and are won by Iliescu and his cronies

-The Iliescu Years happens but are more harsher,especially economically,and social tensions are bigger

A lot of things can happen though in the time between Gușă taking charge and Iliescu winning the elections which will affect Romania deeply politically.

This seems most likely. Especially when faced with a regional transformation and a deeply shaky domestic scene, I am skeptical that Romania can hold out longer than Albania.

I wonder what might happen with Moldova, faced with an unreformed and presumably deeply nationalistic Romania next door.

 

[rfmcdonald]

Actually I just realised something, if Nicu’s decaying regime ends up committing ethnic cleansing and massacres as it collapses, I could see earlier Western Intervention in per say Yugoslavia as the realisation of what can occur in these former nations causes earlier action.

That makes sense, especially with Romania next door as a deeply negative example.

Could this be a TL where Yugoslavia just.manages to survive?

 

[Yokai Man]

That makes sense, especially with Romania next door as a deeply negative example.

Could this be a TL where Yugoslavia just.manages to survive?

HA HA HA HA

no.

 

[Time Enough]

Could this be a TL where Yugoslavia just.manages to survive?

You need a POD in the Early 80s at least for a semi-surviving Yugoslavia and one in the Mid 80s for a delayed breakup.

1989 is way to late.

 

[Coiler]

With his health issues undoubtedly exacerbated by stress, imagine the conspiracy theories if Ceausescu falls mortally ill in the middle of a crisis.

 

[Coiler]

Also figure I'd share, FWIW, 1980s CIA assessments of the Romanian armed forces in general and specific order of battle.

Of note is that they have a full division and its peacetime base right next to the Hungarian border.