Before we start,a few notes:
-Ceausescu’s precarious health at this point and his various illnesses can’t and shan’t be butterflied away and thus he has to live til late ‘91/early ‘92.
-His sole heir was Nicu and he didn’t care about anything beyond booze and women so don’t expect him to put up a fight.
-One way or the other Iliescu and his cronies are gonna reach on top at the end of all this.
1) The Final Act of the Warsaw Pact: Ceausescu still being in charge of Romania (beyond obviously effecting Romanians massively) is a major problem for his neighbors,especially Hungary. Regardless on how the revolution in Timisoara is put down (though I imagine it’s in a really bloody manner that destroys half the city at best),there are bound to be vast numbers of refugees from it running desperately towards Hungary or Yugoslavia and trying to force the border.
Added with Ceausescu coming more and more anti Hungarian and blaming Hungary (among others) for the events at Timisoara,it presents a delicate problem for the Hungarian governments of both pre and post 1990 election. They have to deal not only with a massive refugee crisis and a aggressive government at their front doors which openly loathes them,but also the real possibility of the Romanian government exacting,if not war at some point, more repressive towards members of the Hungarian minority. Maybe they’re all sent in Baragan in closed settlements. Maybe ghetto cities are created specially for them like Ceausescu thought of doing. Maybe he even forces the Hungarian government at the moment to pay for its ethnic minority to be allowed to leave Romania for a price. After all,Ceausescu does need the money and he did this before with the government of West Germany and Israel and it worked well for him.
This is not only a problem for Hungary,but also the Soviets as well. Beyond the obvious problems that the hardline Romanian government would give them,they have the unfortunate luck of this happening when the Warsaw Pact is still around,but only technically as everyone but them and Romania aren’t Communist anymore and don’t want to be part of it. Ceausescu’s aggressive actions though complicate the matter considerably. Do the Soviet troops still leave Hungary? Are the Soviets forced to intervene in this matter? If yes,then how? Is it taken by Soviets on their own or after an agreement in the other members of the still existing Warsaw Pact? Is the Pact still relevant in the scenario of one of its members attacking the other?
There are 2 possibilities here if actions are to be taken beyond sanctions:
a) unlikely but still possible-the Soviets go to war with Romania after something goes wrong on the border and either they advance til last remaining loyal Ceausescu forces remain or a coup happens and in both cases peace follows and Iliescu and his cronies are in charge.
Again though,it’s the least likely one: beyond Gorby not wanting to do another Czechoslovakia and legitimize Ceausescu’s anti Soviet rhetoric,it will make the all ready existent “stab in the back” myth in OTL even more powerful,to worrying effects.
b) the Soviets do aid a coup happening like many conspiracy theorists claim happened OTL (but didn’t btw) and Iliescu and his cronies are in charge.
2) Death By Diabetes: Like I mentioned,Ceausescu had a precarious health around this time,often having attacks of diabetes and even entering a diabetic coma after being told that West Germany recalled its ambassador on 4 April 1989. As such,it’s not outside the realms of plausibility that he couldn’t enter another due to stress and anger from all the changes and suffering another diabetic coma sometime in February/March 1990 that becomes lethal.
Thus Nicu could become Secretary General and the regime could fall more peacefully than OTL,given that he,unlike his dad or mom,didn’t actually believe in anything and just cared about partying it up all the time. Nicu however is not the important factor in this scenario though-it’s his entourage and allies.
Chief among them Iulian Vlad,the chief of Securitate. I can see him either taking over Iliescu’s place as the head honcho of FSN/whatever party created by former Party and Securitate members or being an interim figure that accepts Iliescu and his gang taking over “democratically”… for a price,of course. If the former happens,the Nineties are gonna be even worse given that Vlad,like Iliescu,wasn’t willing to accept any actual change in Romanian society-if not more than Iliescu. The Mineriad equivalents will be even more extreme than OTL (maybe even doing Adrian Sarbu’s plan of bombing University Square to stop protests and what not) and well,that’s not bad to put it lightly.
-Ceausescu’s precarious health at this point and his various illnesses can’t and shan’t be butterflied away and thus he has to live til late ‘91/early ‘92.
-His sole heir was Nicu and he didn’t care about anything beyond booze and women so don’t expect him to put up a fight.
-One way or the other Iliescu and his cronies are gonna reach on top at the end of all this.
1) The Final Act of the Warsaw Pact: Ceausescu still being in charge of Romania (beyond obviously effecting Romanians massively) is a major problem for his neighbors,especially Hungary. Regardless on how the revolution in Timisoara is put down (though I imagine it’s in a really bloody manner that destroys half the city at best),there are bound to be vast numbers of refugees from it running desperately towards Hungary or Yugoslavia and trying to force the border.
Added with Ceausescu coming more and more anti Hungarian and blaming Hungary (among others) for the events at Timisoara,it presents a delicate problem for the Hungarian governments of both pre and post 1990 election. They have to deal not only with a massive refugee crisis and a aggressive government at their front doors which openly loathes them,but also the real possibility of the Romanian government exacting,if not war at some point, more repressive towards members of the Hungarian minority. Maybe they’re all sent in Baragan in closed settlements. Maybe ghetto cities are created specially for them like Ceausescu thought of doing. Maybe he even forces the Hungarian government at the moment to pay for its ethnic minority to be allowed to leave Romania for a price. After all,Ceausescu does need the money and he did this before with the government of West Germany and Israel and it worked well for him.
This is not only a problem for Hungary,but also the Soviets as well. Beyond the obvious problems that the hardline Romanian government would give them,they have the unfortunate luck of this happening when the Warsaw Pact is still around,but only technically as everyone but them and Romania aren’t Communist anymore and don’t want to be part of it. Ceausescu’s aggressive actions though complicate the matter considerably. Do the Soviet troops still leave Hungary? Are the Soviets forced to intervene in this matter? If yes,then how? Is it taken by Soviets on their own or after an agreement in the other members of the still existing Warsaw Pact? Is the Pact still relevant in the scenario of one of its members attacking the other?
There are 2 possibilities here if actions are to be taken beyond sanctions:
a) unlikely but still possible-the Soviets go to war with Romania after something goes wrong on the border and either they advance til last remaining loyal Ceausescu forces remain or a coup happens and in both cases peace follows and Iliescu and his cronies are in charge.
Again though,it’s the least likely one: beyond Gorby not wanting to do another Czechoslovakia and legitimize Ceausescu’s anti Soviet rhetoric,it will make the all ready existent “stab in the back” myth in OTL even more powerful,to worrying effects.
b) the Soviets do aid a coup happening like many conspiracy theorists claim happened OTL (but didn’t btw) and Iliescu and his cronies are in charge.
2) Death By Diabetes: Like I mentioned,Ceausescu had a precarious health around this time,often having attacks of diabetes and even entering a diabetic coma after being told that West Germany recalled its ambassador on 4 April 1989. As such,it’s not outside the realms of plausibility that he couldn’t enter another due to stress and anger from all the changes and suffering another diabetic coma sometime in February/March 1990 that becomes lethal.
Thus Nicu could become Secretary General and the regime could fall more peacefully than OTL,given that he,unlike his dad or mom,didn’t actually believe in anything and just cared about partying it up all the time. Nicu however is not the important factor in this scenario though-it’s his entourage and allies.
Chief among them Iulian Vlad,the chief of Securitate. I can see him either taking over Iliescu’s place as the head honcho of FSN/whatever party created by former Party and Securitate members or being an interim figure that accepts Iliescu and his gang taking over “democratically”… for a price,of course. If the former happens,the Nineties are gonna be even worse given that Vlad,like Iliescu,wasn’t willing to accept any actual change in Romanian society-if not more than Iliescu. The Mineriad equivalents will be even more extreme than OTL (maybe even doing Adrian Sarbu’s plan of bombing University Square to stop protests and what not) and well,that’s not bad to put it lightly.