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CanadianTory's Test Thread

Charles Tupper wins in 1896
I remember reading that Wilfred Laurier once thought about resigning as Liberal leader ahead of the 1896 federal election, adamant that as a Francophone it was impossible for him to heal the growing divide between Canadians over the issue of the Manitoba Schools. English Grit papers wagged war with French Grit papers, stuff like that. Throw in Charles Tupper managing to outmaneuver Mackenzie Bowell to nab the top job a few years in advance and who knows, maybe the Tories won't bungle the issue so bad.

In all honesty I just wanted an excuse to have Tupper win an election.

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No Watergate for Nixon
Presidents of the United States
Frm. Vice President Richard M. Nixon of New York / Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland (Republican)
1969 - 1973
1968: Senator Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota/Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine (Democratic), Frm. Governor George Wallace of Alabama/Ret. Gen. Curtis LeMay of California (American Independent)
1972: Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine/Senator Henry M. Jackson of Washington (Democratic)

President Richard M. Nixon of California / Vacant (Republican) 1973 - 1974
President Richard M. Nixon of California / Secretary John Connally of Texas (Republican) 1974 - 1977
Frm. Governor Ronald Reagan of California / Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania (Republican) 1977 - 1981
1976: Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts/Frm. Governor John Gilligan of Ohio (Democratic), Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut/Representative John B. Anderson of Illinois (Independent)
Senator George McGovern of South Dakota / Senator Adlai Stevenson III of Illinois (Democratic) 1981 - 1989
1980: President Ronald Reagan of California/Vice President Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania (Republican)
1984: Senator Bob Dole of Kansas/Frm. Secretary Donald Rumsfeld of Illinois (Republican)

Vice President Adlai Stevenson III of Illinois / Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia (Democratic) 1989 -
1988: Governor Jack Kemp of New York/Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada (Republican)

A recent favourite list of mine from the other place. No Watergate, so Nixon continues on with his presidency. Gets the vice president he wants after Agnew resigns in disgrace. Reagan is selected by Republican voters as a conservative repudiation of Nixon and his moderate agenda, and goes on to narrowly win the White House against Teddy Kennedy. But Reagan's more right-wing, free market policies run headfirst into the late 70s recession, making him unpopular. Americans narrowly elect outgoing South Dakota Senator and leading progressive George McGovern, who goes on to define the decade as one of Liberalism and government social programs. He wins re-election against Bob Dole in a landslide, and is eventually succeeded by his foreign policy-minded vice president, Adlai Stevenson III, who defeats a northeast governor in an upset to continue on the McGovern Revolution.
 
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Rockefeller in 1960
Presidents of the United States
Ret. General Dwight D. Eisenhower of Kansas / Senator Richard M. Nixon of California (Republican)
1953 - 1958
1952: Governor Adlai Stevenson II of Illinois/Senator John Sparkman of Alabama (Democratic)
1956: Former Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois/Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee (Democratic)
President
Dwight D. Eisenhower of New York / Vacant (Republican) 1958 - 1961
Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York / Senator Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania (Republican) 1961 - 1965
1960: Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts/Senator Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas (Democratic)
Governor Terry Sanford of North Carolina / Senator Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota (Democratic) 1965 - 1966
1964: President Nelson Rockefeller of New York/Vice President Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania (Republican), Governor George Wallace of Alabama/Former Secretary Ezra T. Benson of Utah (Independent)
Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota / Vacant (Democratic) 1966 - 1967
President Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota / Governor John Connally of Texas (Democratic) 1967 - 1973
1968: Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona/Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland (Republican)
Vice President
John Connally of Texas / Senator Frank Church of Idaho (Democratic) 1973 -
1972: Governor Ronald Reagan of California/Senator Robert P. Griffin of Michigan (Republican)

Nixon is assassinated while in Venezuela, leaving the GOP without their frontrunner as they approach the 1960 campaign. Boasting money, a powerful office, and the pledge to continue on with the policies of Eisenhower, New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller comes out on top and manages to defeat Senator Kennedy in a close election. But Rocky's arrogance, inability to govern the emerging factions and tensions within the GOP, and voter's desire for change after three terms of the GOP result in his defeat come '64. Unfortunately for the Democrats, their chosen hero, Terry Sanford, is shot down only a year into his presidency, the result of his endorsement of civil rights legislation in congress. Sanford's successor, Vice President Humphrey, picks up the baton and manages to get a Civil Rights Act passed. Selecting LBJ protégé John Connally as his No.2, President Humphrey comfortably wins re-election over Barry Goldwater come 1968, despite voter's growing dissatisfaction with his handling of the crisis in Vietnam.

John Connally, the heir to LBJ's political legacy, runs for a term of his own in 1972, promising a more pragmatic, if not conservative agenda for the country. Selecting fellow LBJ mentee Frank Church as his vice presidential running mate, they would go on and narrowly defeat California Governor Ronald Reagan in one of the closest elections in American political history.
 
Kennedy survives ‘63
Presidents of the Unites States
Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts / Senator Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas (Democratic)
1961 - 1969
1960: Vice President Richard Nixon of California/Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. of Massachusetts (Republican)
1964: Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona/Representative William E. Miller of New York (Republican)

Governor Ronald Reagan of California / Governor Jim Rhodes of Ohio (Republican) 1969 - 1973
1968: Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas/Senator Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota (Democratic)
1972: Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine/Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin (Democratic), Mayor John Lindsay of New York/Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut (Independent)

Vice President Jim Rhodes of Ohio / Vacant (Republican) 1973 - 1974
President Jim Rhodes of Ohio / Ambassador John Volpe of Massachusetts (Republican) 1974 - 1977
Senator Henry M. Jackson of Washington / Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas (Democratic) 1977 - 1981
1976: President Jim Rhodes of Ohio/Senator Bob Dole of Kansas (Republican)
Former Secretary of State Richard M. Nixon of New York / Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee (Republican) 1981 -
1980: President Henry M. Jackson of Washington/Vice President Lloyd Bentsen of Texas (Democratic), Representative Phil Crane of Illinois/Ret. Admiral Thomas H. Moorer of Maryland (Independent)
1984: Former Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin/Representative Ron Dellums of California (Democratic)
 
No Mackenzie King
Prime Ministers of Canada
Sir Robert Borden (Conservative, later Unionist)
1911 - 1920
-11: Wilfred Laurier (Liberal)
-17: Wilfred Laurier (Laurier Liberals)
Arthur Meighen (Conservative) 1920 - 1921
Edward M. Macdonald (Liberal) 1921 - 1928
-21 (min.): Thomas Crerar (Progressive), Arthur Meighen (Conservative)
-23: Arthur Meighen (Conservative), Robert Forke (Progressive)
-27 (min.): Arthur Meighen (Conservative), John E. Brownlee (United Farmers), N/A (Progressives)

Thomas Crerar (Progressive Liberal) 1928 - 1934
-29: Arthur Meighen (Conservative), John E. Brownlee (United Farmers)
Hugh Guthrie (Conservative) 1934 - 1939
-34: Thomas Crerar (Progressive Liberal), J.S. Woodsworth (Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation), John E. Brownlee (United Farmers)
-39: Thomas Crerar (Progressive Liberal), J.S. Woodsworth (Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation), H.H. Stevens (Reconstructionist)

Robert Manion (Conservative; later National Government) 1939 - 1943
Richard Hanson (National Government) 1943
Donald Sutherland (National Government; later Conservative) 1943 - 1949
-45: Thomas Crerar (Progressive Liberal), Maxime Raymond (Bloc populaire), Solon Earl Low (Social Credit), M.J. Coldwell (Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation)
Adélard Godbout (Progressive Liberal) 1949 - 1956
-49: Donald Sutherland (Conservative), Solon Earl Low (Social Credit), M.J. Coldwell (Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation)
-53: George Pearkes (Conservative), Solon Earl Low (Social Credit), M.J. Coldwell (Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation)

Paul Martin (Progressive Liberal) 1956 - 1966
-57: Donald Fleming (Conservative), Solon Earl Low (Social Credit), M.J. Coldwell (Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation)
-61: Donald Fleming (Conservative), Robert N. Thompson (Social Credit), Walter Pitman (Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation)

Jean Lesage (Progressive Liberal) 1966 - 1975
-66 (min.): Robert N. Thompson (Social Credit), Donald Fleming (Conservative)
-68: Robert N. Thompson (Social Credit), Donald Fleming (Conservative), Robert Cliche (Social Democratic)
-72: Ernest Manning (Social Credit), Davie Fulton (Conservative), Robert Cliche (Social Democratic)

Iona Campagnolo (Progressive Liberal) 1975 - 1976
Davie Fulton (Conservative) 1976 -
-76 (min.): Iona Campagnolo (Progressive Liberal), Robert Cliche (Social Democratic), Lorne Reznowski (Social Credit)
-78 (min.): René Lévesque (Progressive Liberal), Robert Cliche (Social Democratic), Arthur Dixon (Social Credit)
-81: René Lévesque (Progressive Liberal), Stephen Lewis (Social Democratic), Arthur Dixon (Social Credit)
 
T.R. Runs for a third term
Presidents of the United States
Governor William McKinley of Ohio / State Senator Garret Hobart of New Jersey (Republican)
1897 - 1899
1896: Former Representative William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska/Businessman Arthur Sewall of Maine (Democratic)
President William McKinley of Ohio / Vacant (Republican) 1899 - 1901
President William McKinley of Ohio / Governor Theodore Roosevelt of New York (Republican) 1901 - 1901
1900: Former Representative William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska/Former Vice President Adlai Stevenson I of Illinois (Democratic)
Vice President Theodore Roosevelt of New York / Vacant (Republican) 1901 - 1905
President Theodore Roosevelt of New York / Senator Charles W. Fairbanks of Indiana (Republican) 1905 - 1909
1904: Judge Alton B. Parker of New York/Former Senator Henry G. Davis of West Virginia (Democratic)
President Theodore Roosevelt of New York / Former Secretary L. M. Shaw of Iowa (Republican) 1909 - 1913
1908: Former Representative William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska/Former State Senator John W. Kern of Indiana (Democratic)
Former Secretary Albert J. Beveridge of Indiana / University of Columbia President Nicholas M. Butler of New York (Republican) 1913 - 1917
1912: Speaker of the House Champ Clark of Missouri/Senator George E. Chamberlain of Oregon (Democratic), Former State Senator Eugene V. Debs of Indiana/Mayor Emil Seidel of Wisconsin (Socialist)
Speaker of the House
Champ Clark of Missouri / Governor Thomas R. Marshall of Indiana (Democratic) 1917 - 1921
1916: President Albert J. Beveridge of Indiana/Vice President Nicholas M. Butler of New York (Republican)
Former Secretary Charles Evans Hughes of New York / Senator Irvine Lenroot of Wisconsin (Republican) 1921 -
1920: President Champ Clark of Missouri/Vice President Thomas R. Marshall of Indiana (Democratic)
1924: Former Secretary William Gibbs McAdoo of California/Governor Charles W. Bryan of Nebraska (Democratic)
 
This Is My Fight Song - 2016 & 2020 United States presidential election
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Senator Marco Rubio of Florida
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas
Businessman Donald Trump of New York

IOTL the 2016 Iowa caucuses were fairly close between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, with only about four points separating the three candidates. Let's say Rubio runs a slightly better campaign, picking up some much needed momentum following the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. Rubio comes first, followed by Ted Cruz, with Donald Trump in third. As such, Rubio becomes the frontrunner, while Trump's campaign is dealt a blow with his third place finish.

Rather than the primary devolving into a battle between Trump's non-ideological populism and whoever the Stop-Trump candidate of the week is, the Republican primary settles into a more traditional establishment vs "regular" populist divide, with Trump basically trying to save face and use his declining campaign to secure a deal with NBC or one of its competitors. Rubio basically offer himself as the Republican's answer to Obama; a Senator who represents and can make inroads with a new generation of voters, thus growing the party. Cruz on the other hand settles into the role previously filled by Rick Santorum in 2012, Mike Huckabee in 2008, and Alan Keyes in both of his presidential runs; the populist outsider who is also, paradoxically, a career politician. Aside from the routine defeat of the presumed frontrunner in New Hampshire, Cruz gets beat throughout much of the early contests and much of Super Tuesday, with his rhetoric coming across as empty and insincere. Much of the Republican establishment in Washington detest him, and aren't interested in blowing a third chance at winning the White House. Trump manages to win a couple of contests down south before pulling the plug on his bid, calling the entire race rigged, Rubio a weak nominee, and blaming the Republican establishment for censoring his campaign and supporters. Buoyed by polls that back up his argument that he alone is the best candidate to take on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Rubio's campaign marches over Cruz's increasingly dysfunctional campaign and clinches the nomination.

In the leadup to the Republican National Convention, Rubio selects former campaign rival and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and his vice presidential running mate, hoping to reassure white conservatives suspicious of both Rubio's moderate demeanor and skin color. With Rubio opening up Republicans to gains among Latinos, and increasingly important part of the Democratic coalition, Clinton taps Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro as her running mate, confirming the long held media suspicions that Castro's promotion to Obama's cabinet was merely an attempt to bolster his resume ahead of being the party's VP nominee.

A lot less intense of an election campaign than OTL, Clinton and Rubio both fair poorly as general election candidates, and elicit little excitement from either of their respective party's base (Ultimately leading to a lower voter turnout on Election Day). Clinton is awkward and too rehearsed, while Rubio recycles prepared attack lines and tries to vaguely mimic Obama's rhetorical optimism. Without the same kind of unconventional appeal to White, blue collar voters throughout the Rust Belt as Trump, Rubio is unable to break the Democrat's hold on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan, thus handing Clinton a narrow win in the electoral college. Despite winning the popular vote, Marco Rubio becomes the first Republican candidate since Nixon to win both Florida and Ohio while still failing to win the presidency.

As expected, numerous Republican lawmakers from across the country call for the electors to elect Rubio as president once they gather in January to certify the results. While there are a lot of articles published by the left and right detailing potential what-if scenarios, congressional deadlock or even the Republican majority's refusal to vote in support of the confirmation of Clinton's victory, nothing really happens aside from some heated rhetoric and conspiracy theories that Clinton stole the election with the help of China.


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Clinton's term is bumpy to say the least. Every single day there seems to be a new Republican-led investigation into either her administration or her time spent as Secretary of State, especially with regards to Benghazi. Bernie Sanders and his fellow progressives are left sidelined and ignored by the new administration, and enraged by Clinton's attempts to negotiate an overall of both immigration and infrastructure with McConnell and Speaker Ryan. The Me Too movement, which sprung up partly as a result of Harvey Weinstein's arrest in 2017, would make Bill Clinton and his association with Jeffrey Epstein a focus of their ire, further limiting the amount of time the First Gentleman would spend in public. With a controversial Democrat like Hillary Clinton in the White House, the Republicans would have an easy time pining every misstep and piece of bad news on President Clinton, further cementing the GOP's hold on congress. The only real success that Clinton would find would be the confirmations of Brian Sandoval and Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, succeeding the late Antonin Scalia and retiring Ruth Bader Ginsburg, respectively.

Although seriously encouraged by his supporters to challenge Clinton for renomination, Bernie Sanders opts to sit out the 2020 Democratic primary, and instead the role of challenger is filled by New York professor Zephyr Teachout, who without the donor list and following of Sanders, accomplishes little more than causing President Clinton a few headaches, providing embarrassing headlines, and winning 40 percent of the Iowa caucus.

As for the Republicans, with Trump happy at FOX and unwilling to go through another slog fest that includes talking about his financials and personal life, the GOP nomination falls to Arizona Governor Doug Ducey. Tough on immigration, a longtime foe of the Clinton administration, complete with a solid conservative record and willingness to play with populists, Ducey prevails over Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul. Hoping to make inroads with women voters increasingly at odds with Clinton and her husband's infidelities and voters of colour who may be feeling taken for granted by the Democrats, Governor Ducey selects former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate. The election itself is a pretty bitter affair, so par for the course, with Clinton accusing Ducey of having a far-right, anti-healthcare, pro-rich agenda, and Ducey suggesting that the country was less safe, less economically well off, and more divided than ever under Clinton. For much of the election the campaign appears close, with the potential of another candidate winning the electoral college despite losing the popular vote a real possibility. At one moment it seems that Clinton might be able to pull off re-election, thanks in part to Ducey's continued push to repeal Obamacare. That is until the usual October Surprise rears its ugly head, with hackers, likely Russian in nature, dumping personal emails from the White House acknowledging Bill Clinton's connection to the recently deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein and indicating a coordinated effort to among high level members of the White House staff to discredit journalists and other individuals investigating the link in the leadup to the 2020 campaign.

This provides just enough controversy to stall Clinton in the polls and allow Governor Ducey to narrowly get elected the 46th President of the United States. While President-elect Ducey becomes the first POTUS to hail from Arizona and the second ever Catholic to hold the office, Nikki Haley becomes the first woman and the first person of Indian decent to become Vice President of the United States.


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While failing to win an outright majority in the popular vote, Ducey posts the Republicans best performance since George W. Bush's 2004 re-election sixteen years earlier (and the last time a Republican was elected to the presidency). Making matters worse for the Democrats, despite making some gains in the House under Joe Crowley, the Republicans maintain their control over Congress, seemingly all but assuring the repeal of Obamacare. Justice Kennedy, having remained on the bench a little longer than OTL in the hopes of getting a Republican to appoint his successor, announces shortly before Inauguration Day his plans to retire, opening up the opportunity for the newly elected president to leave his own stamp on the Supreme Court.

With the media turning their short attention spans to 2024, the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination appears to be outgoing Vice President Julián Castro, with other names like Zephyr Teachout, Roy Cooper, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker appearing in most opinion polls.

Thank you to @True Grit for the presidential portraits! I might post the 2024 presidential election sometime later since I have it sketched out.
 
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Great stuff! My one nitpick is Trump managing to get a better deal with NBC - by the time of the POD he’d already been fired - but I don’t see that changing anything, I don’t imagine he’d run again after flaming out in 2016.
 
Presidents of the United States
Frm. Vice President Richard M. Nixon of New York / Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland (Republican)
1969 - 1973
1968: Senator Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota/Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine (Democratic), Frm. Governor George Wallace of Alabama/Ret. Gen. Curtis LeMay of California (American Independent)
1972: Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine/Senator Henry M. Jackson of Washington (Democratic)

President Richard M. Nixon of California / Vacant (Republican) 1973 - 1974
President Richard M. Nixon of California / Secretary John Connally of Texas (Republican) 1974 - 1977
Frm. Governor Ronald Reagan of California / Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania (Republican) 1977 - 1981
1976: Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts/Frm. Governor John Gilligan of Ohio (Democratic), Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut/Representative John B. Anderson of Illinois (Independent)
Senator George McGovern of South Dakota / Senator Adlai Stevenson III of Illinois (Democratic) 1981 - 1989
1980: President Ronald Reagan of California/Vice President Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania (Republican)
1984: Senator Bob Dole of Kansas/Frm. Secretary Donald Rumsfeld of Illinois (Republican)

Vice President Adlai Stevenson III of Illinois / Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia (Democratic) 1989 -
1988: Governor Jack Kemp of New York/Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada (Republican)

A recent favourite list of mine from the other place. No Watergate, so Nixon continues on with his presidency. Gets the vice president he wants after Agnew resigns in disgrace. Reagan is selected by Republican voters as a conservative repudiation of Nixon and his moderate agenda, and goes on to narrowly win the White House against Teddy Kennedy. But Reagan's more right-wing, free market policies run headfirst into the late 70s recession, making him unpopular. Americans narrowly elect outgoing South Dakota Senator and leading progressive George McGovern, who goes on to define the decade as one of Liberalism and government social programs. He wins re-election against Bob Dole in a landslide, and is eventually succeeded by his foreign policy-minded vice president, Adlai Stevenson III, who defeats a northeast governor in an upset to continue on the McGovern Revolution.

What hex codes did you use for the colored font in this? I really like the shade of blue you used.
 
This Is My Fight Song - 2024 Democratic presidential primary
The obvious frontrunner for the 2024 Democratic nomination, former Vice President Julian Castro spent much of the interim between President Clinton’s defeat in 2020 and his campaign announcement in 2023 touring the country and cementing the impression that he alone was the party’s best hope of unseating President Ducey and reclaiming the White House. Still relatively young, Hispanic, and having quickly thrown his weight behind a swath of progressive policies popular amongst the party base, Castro’s whole campaign apparatus had based itself around the not-so-subtle notion that the former VP was the second coming of Barack Obama. The only problem was that Castro, thanks in part to his four-year stint as Hillary Clinton’s sidelined and often ignored understudy, was largely viewed as anathema by much of the growing progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

It was no secret that Castro’s role as Vice President had been more poetry than prose. Pundits, along with much of the establishment power within the party, had correctly believed Castro’s selection in 2020 was an olive branch, a move to make the Clinton campaign appear more youthful and dynamic, and avoid the stigma of having yet another grey-haired white man on the ticket. Images of Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Tom Vilsack did little to muster enthusiasm with a party that allowed Bernie Sanders to so publicly embarrass the former Secretary of State through his string of impressive victories in the 2016 primary campaign. At least with Castro the party could legitimately fight back against Marco Rubio’s charge that the Democrats had taken Latino’s in Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico for granted. But once sworn-in, the newly minted Vice President of the United States found himself reduced to being a Hubert Humphrey rather than a Walter Mondale or Joe Biden. Clinton relied on Chief of Staff John Podesta, and later his successor Tom Vilsack, as he de facto number two. With a career in politics that included a stint as San Antonio Mayor and less than three years as HUD Secretary, Castro’s Washington connections simply didn’t run deep enough for Clintonworld’s liking, and many within the President’s inner circle were increasingly dismissive of the VP once they took office. Podesta had even been rumored to have told Schumer that he thought Castro’s ambitions outweighed his talent, and that the party was unlikely to nominate him in the even he sought the nomination in 2024. “He’s a Quayle, not a Mondale” was a common expression. Much as had happened to Joe Biden in 2011, internal White House documents revealed that discussions had taken place, toying with the idea of dropping Castro from the ticket come 2020 in favor of someone like former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick or Attorney General Tom Perez. But, as in Biden’s case, the potential damage of dropping the VP, especially one like Castro, presented far too great a risk, and could raise questions over whether Clinton was second guessing her decision, which could open a whole can of worms that insiders preferred to keep close.

But as it turned out, keeping Castro on the ticket did little to help Clinton secure her re-election. Dismissive of progressives, suspicious of young voters, and arrogant towards blue collar white voters that had been crucial to Obama’s winning coalition and unwilling to seriously tackle the scandals orchestrated by her staff, the feeling of most Democratic insiders following Clinton’s loss was “Well that sucked, but I expected as much”. Sure, many were sad to see America’s first female President concede to yet another boring white guy, but after eight years under the first African American President and the ensuing racial backlash by the Tea Party, they considered themselves lucky that they got a woman in the Oval Office in the first place. That’s where Castro saw himself come in. According to those within the VP’s small inner circle, electing a Latino as President was the logical next step, and Castro, as the highest-ranking elected Latino American in the country’s history, was the only candidate who could make that a reality. Since the 1990s the Democrats had won the White House in five of the last eight elections, six if you counted Gore’s popular vote win in 2000. Democrats saw 2016 as a confirmation that their party had finally supplemented the Republicans as America’s natural governing party, and that 2020 was a mere fluke in the system. Voters had grown tired of Clinton, that was understandable if not outright empathetic, but believed they would eventually swing back to the Democrats after four years of regressive Republican rule.

For all the clamor and hope for an alternative frontrunner to jump into the race, the establishment was left with little choice than backing former Vice President Castro. President Ducey enjoyed fairly stable approvals for much of his first four years, and a lot of big names weren’t interested in spending millions, if not billions, of dollars running around the country just to lose in the fall. Roy Cooper had passed on a bid, as did Virginia’s Tim Kaine, who like many Democrats believed the party should avoid nominating another white person for at least a few election cycles. The name on most Democrat’s wish list, Speaker of the House Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, was equally disinterested in applying for a gig that he viewed as less influential than the one he had. That left Castro, who was more appealing to the establishment than the gaggle of socialists, self-help gurus, and also rans that had jumped into the race. Zephyr Teachout and her team hoped that a second run for the nomination would finally catch fire without an incumbent president in the race. Tulsi Gabbard had dreams of making America great again. Somehow. Steve Bullock, the former Governor of Montana, hoped that his mixture of pro-second amendment and pro-healthcare liberalism would be enough to persuade the establishment to back him instead of Castro. Mark Cuban, the billionaire entrepreneur, decided to take a page out of Donald Trump’s playbook, actually make it successful, and buy himself the presidency. He had the money for it, after all. Keith Ellison, the former DNC Chair hopeful-turned Minnesota Attorney General, was everything that Republicans had accused Barack Obama of being; a Muslim socialist. With the blessings of an aging Bernie Sanders and much of the Vermont firebrand’s campaign machinery, it soon became apparent that the 2024 Democratic primary would become a redux of 2016, complete with matching, if reluctant, political heirs to the Clinton and Sander’s dynasties. The song and dance that emerged in the following months was all too familiar to primary voters. Castro was the out-of-touch establishment candidate who, like Clinton, would play it safe at a time when voters were yearning for something more radical. Ellison was the socialist going nowhere, unable to win, unable to connect with Black or Latino voters, and was prepared to use the Democratic Party as the vehicle for his revolution. Rinse and repeat. The only notable moment of levity throughout the pre-2024 campaign was the brief debate joke where Mark Cuban spoke about how unlikely a “Cuban-Castro” ticket was. “Some people might get the wrong idea,” said Cuban, especially voters in Florida.
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Everyone knew that Vice President Castro was going to lose in Iowa. After only narrowly losing in 2016, so close that he may have actually won it, Bernie Sanders and his cohorts had spent the following years making sure any such dirty tricks wouldn’t happen again. Ellison had the boots on the ground, the campaign offices filled with volunteers, thousands attending his rallies, and enough small donor money to keep his campaign alive and well into the actual convention itself. Fighting with Steve Bullock for second place, the strategy keeping the Castro campaign alive, and their candidate sane, was Nevada and South Carolina. They could take a loss in Iowa. Heck, Castro could even come third. The former VP would face difficulties after a loss in New Hampshire. But as long as Nevada and South Carolina came through, they could mount a strong showing in Super Tuesday and hopefully put the race to rest. With money a precious resource, the Castro campaign quietly pulled out of Iowa and reduced their staff in New Hampshire. Then came the debate in the Granite State. Ellison, when asked whether he believed former President Obama had done enough on healthcare, said no, arguing that Democrats had been too preoccupied by pleasing pharmaceutical special interests and that Obamacare wasn’t nearly enough. Still considered sacrosanct by most of the Democratic Party, Obamacare had been the rallying piece of legislation that for all its imperfections had only become more popular over time with the public at large. Within days of the debate, Ellison’s numbers had crashed back down from their previous high, making a horserace between himself and Castro. On Election Night Ellison, although having narrowly edged Castro in the popular vote, was only able to tie the former VP in terms of overall delegate support. The punditry, who had been searching for ways to minimalize Ellison’s appeal, spun the pyrrhic victory as a devastating blow to the once unstoppable progressive campaign. High voter turnout in Nevada helped deliver Castro his first primary victory, with record turnout amongst Latino voters who according to some analysts appeared suspicious of voting for an Islamic candidate for the nomination. Questions as to whether or not Ellison had a growing problem with Hispanic voters became a centerpiece of the punditry talking points.

Bullock’s campaign up to this point had been a disaster. The cash influx from his second place showing in Iowa had long since disappeared, and his growing irrelevance in what was shaping up to be a two-man race had led to ramped up pressure for the former Montana Governor to wind down his campaign and exit with some dignity. There were talks with the Castro campaign about getting vetted for the VP slot, but those close to Bullock weren’t confident that the former Vice President would ignore the growing political wisdom that the ticket would need a woman if the Democrats were to have any hope of victory in November. But at least the two campaigns were talking, which was more than could be said about the Ellison campaign. Ellison viewed Bullock in much the same way as his supporters; a relic from a bygone era, the Jim Webb or Martin O’Malley of the 2024 primary race. Talking with him would be a waste of time, and besides, Ellison campaign insiders were confident that the longer Bullock remained in the race, the better chance that their guy could emerge with a plurality of the vote and a majority of the delegates. But Bullock’s down-to-earth, cowboy persona had endeared him to many in the South, and the campaign had poured all of its remaining resources into winning the race. If the Black vote could be evenly split between the two-frontrunner’s, Bullock’s support amongst White voters would be enough for him to narrowly come up the middle. Knock Castro off his groove and prove that Ellison was a flawed co-frontrunner. Winning South Carolina would keep them alive going into Super Tuesday. Which is exactly what happened. But rather than get the kind of comeback kid attention that Bullock had banked on, the media portrayed the win as exactly what it was. A fluke, an anomaly that didn’t reflect Bullock’s poor numbers amongst African Americans and progressives. The media was still caught up in the fight between Castro and Ellison. That was where the views and clicks were coming from, not another White guy governor who reminded people of the Republicans.

Splitting much of Super Tuesday between themselves, Vice President Castro would win the larger contests, like Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, and California, whilst Ellison would win increasingly progressive strongholds like Colorado, his native Minnesota, and Vermont. For all the talk of revolutions, conspiracy theories that the establishment was once again rigging the rules against their guy, that some external force had conspired against Ellison and his supporters despite their overwhelming crowd size and Twitter presence, Castro had the momentum. Throughout the Ellison social media sphere, talk of rigged voting, tampered voting machines, and hateful attacks against Castro and his team had begun to become a problem for their candidate. Ellison prided himself on being the gentle, thoughtful progressive, and the level of vitriol that he was seeing online disturbed him. Sure, he didn’t like what he saw as Clinton’s heated up leftovers getting the nomination, but there was by no means a grand conspiracy against him. For some reason, Democratic primary voters, especially Black and Latino voters, didn’t want a revolution to tear the system down. They liked the system and wanted to fix it from within. But his supporters wouldn’t relent. Some campaign operatives, like Nina Turner, began openly talking about running an independent, progressive-minded campaign. If the Democrats weren’t going to listen to the enthusiasm and crowds coming out to see Ellison, they didn’t deserve to take them for granted. If Ellison didn’t run, Turner was more than happy to start talking about her own potential appeal to voters. Bernie wasn’t interested in getting involved. As far as the Vermont Senator was concerned it wasn’t his fight. It was a shitshow. After routing his progressive competitor across Arizona, Florida, and Illinois, it became clear that Castro had the nomination all but wrapped up. But, following in the steps of Bernie Sanders eight years earlier, Keith Ellison would not drop out. “I want more time to talk about the issues” he’d tell former President Obama, who had been forced to act as a kind of go-between the Ellison campaign and Democratic leadership. Clinton certainly wasn’t going to do it. Privately, everyone in Ellisonville knew that Ohio was going to be his last stand. Nobody could win the presidency without it, unless you were Hillary Clinton or Jack Kennedy. But as the returns began flooding in, the numbers just weren’t there to justify going on. It was over. Once again, after the dream was so close to realization, it was snatched away just as quickly. Ellison phoned Castro, explained his plan to drop out the following day, and set in place the mechanics for both men to appear together as part of a “unity rally” ahead of the convention.

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Thank you to @True Grit for the Castro portrait! If anyone is interested in a little fun, here's a POLL for you to support your preferred candidate.
 
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Anybody But Bush
Presidents of the United States
Governor George W. Bush of Texas / Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney of Wyoming (Republican)
2001 - 2005
2000: Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee/Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Democratic)
Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont / Senator John Edwards of North Carolina (Democratic) 2005 - 2009
2004: President George W. Bush of Texas/Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming (Republican)
Senator George Allen of Virginia / Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts (Republican) 2009 - 2017
2008: President Howard Dean of Vermont/Vice President John Edwards of North Carolina (Democratic)
2012: Former Vice President John Edwards of North Carolina/Senator Barack Obama of Illinois (Democratic)

Vice President Mitt Romney of Massachusetts / Senator Marco Rubio of Florida (Republican) 2017 - 2021
2016: Senator Hillary Clinton of New York/Former Secretary Tom Vilsack of Iowa (Democratic)
Senator Jason Kander of Missouri / Governor Kamala Harris of California (Democratic) 2021 - present
2020: President Mitt Romney of Massachusetts/Vice President Marco Rubio (Republican)
 
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