Ricardolindo
Well-known member
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In 1779, during the American Revolutionary War, France and Spain planned to invade Britain, but the plan was canceled. What if it had gone forward? How successful would the invasion have been?
How successful would the invasion be?
Not.
The sort of not that makes it doubtful that there could be victory at Chesapeake and thus Yorktown or their ATL equivalent.
It was a plan that the French kept having during the long eighteenth century. It never worked. The Navy was better under Louis XVI than it had probably ever been and it still was nowhere close enough. Only thing it would have achieved is even more ruin for the French Navy, so even more expenses to get it back to strength in the 1780s, and bankruptcy a bit earlier. Probably moving the Révolution forward.
I assume it would've been pretty brutal for Britain but the Royal Navy still wins (since the French and Spanish clearly decided "okay no" for a reason). It would be hugely significant if that ends up altering the path of the American Revolution or bringing the French Revolution sooner though, as @Redolegna argues - that means they end up different, and how does Britain react if the revolution happens and Louis's headless very soon after the Battle of Whitby Coast?
The invasion was only canceled because of an outbreak of disease.
Even if you somehow can do the Armada and it batters Britain severely enough to get them to cry "pax!", the extra cost of all the lost boats & material on top of the costs of the American Revolution seem likely to speed up the French Revolution anyway! But now you get one where Britain's not involved in any pushback until it's rebuilt its stuff.
The French fleet had a decisive local superiority in the Channel in numbers, meaning they could control the sea lanes and land the 40,000 men ready to land.
Post-1759 the Royal Navy is by far the best in the world, and without some serious luck the French have no way of changing this. It is highly unlikely that they’ll be able to land any troops in Britain, and if they do the invading troops will be quickly cut off from their supplies and destroyed.
Several threads on The Other Place also argue that Operation Sealion would have been a glorious victory for the Germans. It's almost like AH.com threads aren't a reputable source of information.Several threads at the other place argue otherwise. They argue that the Armada of 1779 did have a good chance of success.
Several threads on The Other Place also argue that Operation Sealion would have been a glorious victory for the Germans. It's almost like AH.com threads aren't a reputable source of information.
Post-1759 the Royal Navy is by far the best in the world, and without some serious luck the French have no way of changing this. It is highly unlikely that they’ll be able to land any troops in Britain, and if they do the invading troops will be quickly cut off from their supplies and destroyed.
Well, once across the French might find it very useful to have control of the Channel for more than eight hours.The Royal Navy being the best in the world doesn't change the fact that in 1779 the French had the advantage in both numbers and in cannons in the channel and it will take months to assemble the Royal Navy to change this balance of power, given this is the age of sail based communication. Ask Lord Cornwallis what happens in such circumstances...
Well, once across the French might find it very useful to have control of the Channel for more than eight hours.
Assuming of course they can get that eight hours in the first place.
The French have a 2-1 advantage in the Channel, so any effort to contest the landings is doomed to failed until said concentration can be achieved but the problem therein is by the time that can occur the 40,000 Frenchmen have long since taken London.