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AMERICA DIVIDES: The Multi-Party US Election of 2016

  • Alliance - Carson, maybe? Or something to do with third parties?

Yeah, I can see the Republicans have split into different traditions run by different candidates and so have the Democrats on Sanders/Clinton, but who is the Alliance Party? And I'd forgotten the Greens and Libertarians aren't showing up here, which is a metaphor for how important they are HEYO
 
3
"Yes, we'll be back to Katty in a moment as we discuss the origins of these strange new American political parties we are hearing so much about. But before that, I'm told that we'll soon be getting our first declarations from the Deep South."

"I thought we already had one from Virginia...?"

"No, that's the Upper South, these definitions do actually have meanings, you know. Either North or South Carolina - or both - are supposed to be declaring soon. Let's go to Emily Maitlis in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, who's been speaking to voters."

Maitlis looked a little more ruffled than usual, though that might have something to do with the after-effects of the recent Hurricane Natalie; some of the attractions at Broadway at the Beach, visible behind her, were still tied down under tarpaulins. "Yes, Andrew. It's been a difficult few days for the people of coastal South Carolina, but they have still gone to the polls to elect a new government. In a part of the world that was first dominated by the old Southern Democrats and then by the Republicans, having such choice on offer is quite a novelty..."

Several clips of South Carolinian voters being interviewed by Maitlis played, but owing to some hiccup by the audiovisual people, the sound was muted. Instead, still audible in the background was Maitlis grumbling to the cameraman. "So-called 'Southern hospitality'...I ordered tea and biscuits at that cafe and the tea came ice-cold and without milk, and instead of biscuits they brought scones, and then to add insult to injury they poured gravy all over them! Fetch me that iPhone, I need to leave a one-star review on TripAdvisor..."

The clips abruptly cut off, revealing an even more frazzled-looking Maitlis who had clearly been told to shut up. "Um, and of course, South Carolina is a very religious state, meaning some people have suggested that Ted Cruz's Constitution Party could do well here. However, we've also seen signs that the National Party's leader's, ah, peccadilloes - multiple divorces and so on - seem not to have dented his popularity with evangelical voters. Ironically for a state where so few people believe in evolution, their state dish is primordial soup - or 'Chicken Bog' as they call it, which is also what James May says in the Russian dub of Top Gear when something goes wrong."

Rich (BB code):
	SC-07		
	Lib          	89,417    	30%
	Nat          	84,053    	28.2%
	Con          	49,836    	16.7%
	Cst          	39,157    	13.1%
	Prog          	27,227    	9.1%
	All          	8,547     	2.9%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	298,237
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Con

"And I have to cut you off there Emily because we have our first result from that fine state - and, more importantly, I should remind you that we don't plug James May on Top Gear anymore since he left for pastures anew." Neil somehow made an allusion to Sky One sound like some of the locals would have referred to 'sending a dog to a farm upstate'. "But I'm sure we look forward to Richard and Jeremy being joined by Martyn Hughes-Games this Christmas, when I believe they'll be traversing the caldera of Mount Fuji on golf carts or something."

"Sorry Andrew. Yes, that's an interesting result - the right-wing vote has split quite significantly, leaving the Liberals to top the polls. And the Constitution Party is actually third among the right-wing parties, with the Nationals and Conservatives taking a seat each. Let's see if that pattern continues to be born out."

Rich (BB code):
	FL-06		
	Nat          	115,849   	30.5%
	Lib          	92,163    	24.3%
	Con          	66,580    	17.5%
	Prog          	59,290    	15.6%
	Cst          	33,512    	8.8%
	All          	12,410    	3.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	379,804
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"That's our first result from Florida, and quite a similar one to the South Carolina one in fact, except that the Nationals have come ahead of the Liberals. However, in this brave new world of proportional representation, the MCs elected by party are the same regardless. I understand we'll be seeing more from Florida later, but for now, Jeremy, can you explain why we're getting results from these states first?"

"Yes Andrew," Jeremy grinned, changing the format of his map of the United States. Now it was coloured in multicoloured stripes running north to south. "Unlike the UK, the United States is large enough that it occupies multiple time zones. That means that everything has to happen on a different schedule depending on which part of the country you're on - well either that or you could do what the Chinese do and have everyone in the west getting up as though they live in Beijing, but that won't fly here. That means that the polls close soonest in these east-coast states, on what's known as Eastern Standard Time," he gestured to the states in question as they lit up. "We'll be getting results from them earliest, and it's here we'll probably hear a lot of British place names we recognise, as these are the original Thirteen Colonies of course."

"So the polls are closing at 10 pm in each time zone?"

"Yes. Historically each state could set its own voting hours, but there have been concerns that this has been open to abuse - for instance, closing early to deliberately exclude workers working certain hours from voting. This time, a federal 10 pm closing time has been enforced, but, as you say, what's 10 pm is different in New York to what it is in Ohio. Not usually something we have to worry about in the UK!"

"But couldn't the results in the east influence voters who are still voting in the west?"

"Well quite, but this has always been an issue with politics in the United States - California, the most populous state, often hasn't got to vote until the results of a nationwide election are basically already decided, which naturally leads to lower turnout. Not to mention Alaska and Hawaii! At least in this more granular constitutional system Mr Obama has fathered, their votes are more likely to make a difference."

"I see. Fascinating. I have to pause you there, as apparently North Carolina has only been slightly beaten out to their first declaration by their southern neighbour."

Rich (BB code):
	NC-07		
	Nat          	98,334    	27.5%
	Lib          	85,508    	23.9%
	Cst          	63,700    	17.8%
	Prog          	57,301    	16%
	Con          	44,116    	12.3%
	All          	8,949     	2.5%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	357,908
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Cst

"In this case, as Emily was saying a little time ago about South Carolina, the Constitution Party has had some success - though still less than the Nationals when it comes to the right-wing vote. The Progressives, interestingly, only narrowly missed off obtaining a seat; conventional wisdom had suggested they did not have much of a shot in the southern states."

"But all our assumptions must be questioned on an election night like this, when everything is new and there really is no conventional wisdom."

"No, indeed. We will be talking to Nate Silver later, if he ever turns up. But in the meantime..."

Rich (BB code):
	MA-07		
	Lib          	142,830   	47.3%
	Prog          	111,207   	36.8%
	Fus          	19,689    	6.5%
	Nat          	16,329    	5.4%
	All          	11,884    	3.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	301,939
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"Another result from Massachusetts, and this district does cover the city of Boston. Now, unlike its namesake in Lincolnshire, which politically these days seems to be known mainly for being a hotbed of support for Suzanne Evans' Independence Party, the American Boston is more associated with left-wing politics, generally."

"And also the classic sitcom Cheers is set there."

"Yes, well, a bit trivial, but if we're going to reference its past, probably better that than the time our troops shot some people there, then they dumped a load of tea in the harbour in revenge, or more recently when they funded terrorism that blew up British town centres. Which is almost as bad as destroying all that lovely tea. Anyway, this is the first New England result we've seen that favours the Liberals over the Progressives, so evidently Mr Sanders' party is not entirely having its own way in his backyard."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-16		
	Lib          	148,841   	52.6%
	Prog          	63,803    	22.5%
	Nat          	36,432    	12.9%
	Fus          	27,158    	9.6%
	All          	6,880     	2.4%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	283,114
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Lib
			Prog

"And a very similar result there for New York's 16th district, which is in the north of the city, where the Bronx is, and this place called Westchester County that, to be honest, I always thought was made up for the X-Men films."

"Yes, with that we can update our New York map..."

New York 3results.png

"Yes, all right, Jeremy," Neil sounded annoyed. "We don't have to zoom in on the map every single time a result comes in. That's a bit blank to draw any conclusions from yet, don't you think?"

"But New York is important because we're here Andrew. And so are some of the campaign headquarters. And people have tryptiches of it on their walls at home, and in the movie Ghostbusters 2, it--"

"Yes, yes. We've not even seen any results from Manhattan yet, Jeremy, and as we know, that's the only bit that actually matters. Come on."

Rich (BB code):
	CT-04		
	Lib          	123,190   	37.5%
	Prog          	72,304    	22%
	Nat          	63,306    	19.3%
	Fus          	56,670    	17.3%
	All          	12,728    	3.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	328,198
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Nat

"That's our second result from New England where the Liberals have pulled ahead of the Progressives, and this time it's in Connecticut. Perhaps a bit of a worry for Mr Sanders and the Progressive supporters?"

"Well, it depends what you mean - we had some analysts saying that the Progressives would barely win any seats at all, so this early performance must surely be seen as a triumph against that background."

"Well, we'll be talking to spokespeople from the different campaigns later, if we can ever get a word in edgeways, but..."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-06		
	Lib          	77,907    	37.6%
	Prog          	57,063    	27.5%
	Nat          	44,480    	21.5%
	Fus          	22,007    	10.6%
	All          	5,828     	2.8%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	207,285
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Nat

Rich (BB code):
	NY-10		
	Lib          	135,640   	51.8%
	Prog          	69,474    	26.5%
	Fus          	27,507    	10.5%
	Nat          	21,672    	8.3%
	All          	7,652     	2.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	261,945
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"Two results back to back there from New York!" Vine uttered triumphantly. "And the tenth district even takes in a lot of Manhattan, so you can't complain. Very good results for the Liberals, as we would expect."

"Yes, now why couldn't you have waited till then to do that map," Neil grumbled.

Rich (BB code):
	MA-01		
	Prog          	100,945   	29.7%
	Lib          	93,091    	27.4%
	Nat          	64,409    	19%
	Fus          	59,544    	17.5%
	All          	21,337    	6.3%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	339,326
			
	MCs elected:		
			Prog
			Lib
			Nat

"And yet more from Massachusetts as well. This first district is in the more rural western part of the state, far from Boston. Better news for the Progressives here, but again, a bit of a surprise perhaps from the third seat."

"Yes, we are used to thinking of Massachusetts as a left-wing state, but of course it does have a sizeable minority of right-wing voters, more on the liberal side of the Republican Party historically. So it's perhaps not surprising that this proportional representation voting system does give a seat to a party on the right, but it's curious that it's the Nationals rather than the more moderate Conservatives - though here, of course, they have joined the Constitution Party in a fusion, a move which does appear to have backfired in some states as voters saw it as a fix-up."

"Or just distaste for Mr Cruz and the Constitution message."

Rich (BB code):
	CT-01		
	Lib          	106,860   	32.5%
	Prog          	88,445    	26.9%
	Nat          	68,818    	20.9%
	Fus          	50,577    	15.4%
	All          	14,074    	4.3%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	328,774
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Nat

"A very similar pattern there once again, this time in Connecticut's first district, which isn't geographically far away from the last result. But before we get swamped by more results, Katty, my apologies it's taken a while to get to you..."

"No problem, Andrew." Kay waved at her greenscreen, which showed a map of the USA coloured in red and blue. "As we all know, for over a hundred years the US has been divided between just two parties, the Democrats and Republicans, what are called big-tent parties." The map zoomed in and became granular, showing that the solid colours filling up the states were actually made of many pixels, vaguely human-shaped. "In reality, these seemingly monolithic parties had many different groups and opinions represented within them..." Shades of colour started to enter the image, with some blue figures tinting turquoise or lilac, and the some red ones tinting orange or purple. "But the winner-take-all voting system meant that these internal divisions were suppressed, exercised only in what were called party primaries, while the final vote on the day - the only part that many voters paid attention to - was always an all-or-nothing fight between Democrats and Republicans. Mr Obama argued that under that system, it was not necessary to actually appeal to the voters, merely convince them that they had to vote for them to stop the other side, seen as monstrous."

"Sounds familiar," Neil said dryly.

"Perhaps, but in the US the situation was worsened by a lack of regulation of political advertising. And the internet has made things worse, as we've seen in the UK as well. Suddenly, anyone can claim anything. Well, Mr Obama has argued, in a proportional representation, multi-party system, a party or candidate is competing with many others. It's not enough to merely throw mud at one opponent; they need to do something to rise above the crowd."

Kay gestured again, and the hints of colours within the pixel-people firmed up as cracks like fault lines began to split up the two parties. "Of course, one criticism made was that there was a game-theory disincentive for either of the two parties to break up. If one broke up and the other stayed united, it would obviously dominate thanks to vote splitting, which is still an issue even under PR. However, anti-trust laws were passed to try to break up monopolies. For example, it is illegal for any of the new parties to use the names or symbols of their predecessors. That has been controversial due to accusations that it violates free speech, and besides, the Liberals and Conservatives have sneakily managed to keep the colours people associated with the two old parties, as strictly those colours were never official symbols."

"Yes, it does look a bit odd to our British eyes, doesn't it - blue Liberals and red Conservatives?"

"Even stranger to our Canadian viewers, so I'm told. Explaining why red has come to mean right-wing and blue left-wing in the US would be a whole other discussion, but suffice to say that the Liberals are effectively composed of the old establishment core of the Democrats, while the Conservatives have attempted to do the same for the Republicans, but not so successfully. Ultimately the Republicans were disadvantaged by the fact that their former supporters were split between those who de facto accept the new state of affairs, if reluctantly, and those who really want to throw themselves in front of the train tracks over it. And that's before the Nationals entered the fray."

Kay coughed. "So, let's run down our six new parties in this brave new world..."

Rich (BB code):
	NC-08		
	Nat          	83,643    	25.3%
	Lib          	82,523    	24.9%
	Cst          	66,728    	20.1%
	Prog          	53,709    	16.2%
	Con          	35,502    	10.7%
	All          	9,128     	2.8%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	331,234
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Cst

"I'm sorry Katty, I need to interrupt you there as we have another result from North Carolina..."

"Oh, that means we should update the map!"

"No, you don't have t--"

Carolinas 3results.png

"There, what was the point of that? Now be quiet Jeremy while Katty finishes, or I'll send you to your room."

"Sorry, Andrew."
 
OHHH,I like the hints of UKIP being more successful and David Miliband running Labour/possibly being PM,though Evans actually being allowed to run/win the UKIP Leadership race is a bit of stretch even in an ASB scenario.

After Farage left,it didn’t matter who ran the party because UKIP traditionally backstabs its leaders every month and spends more time in legal disputes over who actually runs the party.
 
Judging by the results so far, it’ll all likely end up with a liberal-progressive coalition. Unless, Thande pulls a surprise, and has the West vote Libertarian, and a strong Californian Independence Party.
 
Judging by the results so far, it’ll all likely end up with a liberal-progressive coalition. Unless, Thande pulls a surprise, and has the West vote Libertarian, and a strong Californian Independence Party.
Well, the results so far have mostly been from liberal areas, and the House has a non-trivial conservative bias…
 
Yes, but this electoral system partially nullifies it, and even OTL partial change is enough to change the entire outcome. It doesn’t help the right that they’re more divided.
To an extent, but if we (for the sake of argument) flatten the parties into their OTL coalitions, there are only four ways things can really go:
  • All three seats go to the left. We've seen this in a few districts, most of them majority-minority urban districts, and I suspect there will be more than a few of these, but I also think they will be largely balanced out by:
  • All three seats go to the right. We've yet to see any of these, but there are a lot of districts that are very deeply red - particularly once we get deeper into the South and Midwest - that I suspect will return this kind of result and cancel out the above.
  • Two left, one right, as we've seen in most seats so far. Most of those seats have been liberal seats - the one exception is NY-01, which only narrowly came out the way it did despite a pretty narrow conservative majority overall.
  • Two right, one left. So far, most of the conservative seats we've seen have ended up this way, though admittedly none of those were especially close seats between the two blocs. (I also think it's possible that more than a few liberal seats will end up this way - in the South, for instance, there are more than a few VRA districts that have just enough Democratic [and specifically minority] representation to elect a representative, but here might not have quite enough for the second Liberal or first Progressive to outpace the second-best right-wing candidate.)
I think the fact that three-seat proportional representation isn't all that proportional (and, in particular, seems to de facto give a large bonus to whichever party or coalition makes it past 50%, at least so far, in a system already geared to creating a lot of results for Republicans in the low 50s) is going to mean these results end up looking more like OTL than actual proportionality. Though your point about the more divided right (and the fact that D'Hondt already rewards larger parties) is a good one...

(On the gripping hand - 100 seats are going to be apportioned in a parallel way by state, and I have no intuition as to how that'll go. In most states, that'll probably be the best-performing parties of the right and left, but there'll also probably be a few states that send two right-wingers or two left-wingers, and I am not sure which there will be more of...)

Obviously it's too early to predict results in any sort of principled way, but I'm going to put down some markers anyway:
  • The Progs and Libs will do relatively well, but will not win a majority on their own.
  • The Progs would be unwilling to coalition with the Conservatives, and neither left party would be willing to form a coalition with the Constitutionalists (as would be made necessary by Fusion).
  • The Nationals (Nationalists?) will probably not have an easy time coalitioning with the Con-Con informal coalition.
  • I have no idea who the Alliance are; so far, they haven't done well enough to win any seats anywhere, but if they have any relationship to the Libertarians they might win a few out west. I don't think it's entirely out of the question for them to coalition with either major bloc.
  • The most likely government is probably a very shaky Con-Con-Nat-(All?) coalition, followed by an even more tenuous Prog-Lib-All coalition that relies on Conservative votes to shore itself up. In third place is a self-hating Centrist Coalition of the Liberals, the Conservatives, the Alliance, and whoever else can be peeled off.
(@Thande, you don't mind this speculation, do you? I don't want to step on your toes or preempt you or anything, I just think this is a really interesting setup.)
 
[/LIST]
(@Thande, you don't mind this speculation, do you? I don't want to step on your toes or preempt you or anything, I just think this is a really interesting setup.)
No, go ahead. I should say I forgot something above - the last two statewide seats are winner-take all rather than following the same formula as I implied (er, I mean the BBC researchers made a mistake ;) thus providing a bonus to who comes top across the state.
 
No, go ahead. I should say I forgot something above - the last two statewide seats are winner-take all rather than following the same formula as I implied (er, I mean the BBC researchers made a mistake ;) thus providing a bonus to who comes top across the state.

It's not pure D'Hondt in other words, it's Thandean Representation. :p
 
4
Rich (BB code):
	FL-16		
	Nat          	107,662   	27.1%
	Lib          	107,284   	27%
	Con          	71,166    	17.9%
	Prog          	63,158    	15.9%
	Cst          	34,443    	8.7%
	All          	13,094    	3.3%
	Fus          	0         	0%
			
		Total	396,807
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Con

"We have our first result from Florida. Now we in the UK like to think we know Florida, but there's a lot more to the state than just Disney World - other theme parks are available. Florida has a population of nearly twenty million, nearly a third of the population of the UK, and recently overtook New York as the third biggest state by population."

"Politically, of course, we all know Florida for the disputed 2000 election there, with all the recounts and the hangin' chads, you remember? Under the old two-party system, elections were often very close here. This sixteenth district is on the west coast, nowhere near anywhere that any of us would have heard of, but it gives us an insight into how things might stand now."

"Yes, some good news for the Conservatives at last, who take the third seat. Though in this home state of party co-leader Marco Rubio, they might have expected to do better; they were not far from losing the seat to the Progressives, whom analysts assumed would be a dead letter in areas like this. The Nationals still top the poll, with the Liberals sandwiched in between."

"All right - while we have a moment. Katty, better late than never - speaking of the Liberal Party - let's hear about them first."

Kay, looking mildly annoyed at the repeated delays, nodded. "When Barack Obama broke the American political landscape, he and Vice-President Joe Biden have been careful to remain neutral and never express an endorsement of the big six successor parties. However, it is clear to everyone that Mr Obama's heart is with the Liberal Party."

The screen beside Kay showed blue-tinted images of different locations, from inner-city urban areas to rusting industrial factories and small New England towns. "The Liberal Party has captured much of the old establishment of the Democratic Party, which until now was actually the oldest continuously-operating political party in the world - it was formally established even before the Conservatives and Liberals back home. Founded almost two hundred years ago in 1828 by President Andrew Jackson, the Democrats have always been a big-tent party that took in political interests from across the country." Images of past conventions diplomatically cut around some of the placards held by Southern delegates. "One bit of ideological continuity from the start, however, is that the Democrats have always been sceptical of big banking, and have always drawn support from New York City, no matter how the rest of their coalition may change."

Images of Ellis Island and Liberty Island. "For more than a century, the Democrats were the party of immigrants, the party of the dispossessed trying to reach that American Dream promise inscribed on the Statue of Liberty - 'Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free'. Originally about immigrants from Europe, they have been joined by those from Asia, Africa, and other parts of the Americas. From the 1960s when President Lyndon B. Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act, they also became associated with pushing for minority rights, often in the face of opposition."

Now images of Vietnam protests, the 9/11 attacks, and a man with a baseball cap and dark glasses holding an assault rifle in a gun store. "But ever since they turned on President Johnson for the unpopular Vietnam War, the Democrats also struggled to develop a coherent national security message. The Republicans constantly accused them of being weak on the military and protecting America. In 2004, incumbent Republican President George W. Bush, who had avoided military service, successfully defeated Democrat John Kerry, a Vietnam veteran, on such a message - showing how the impression could be more powerful than the reality. Gun ownership has also been a wedge issue used by Republicans to attack Democrats, as has abortion, stem cells, and BLT rights--"

"I think that's a kind of sandwich, Katty."

"Sorry, misspoke - the Republicans' message resonated in rural and small-town America, where the Democrats steadily lost support and were cut back to the cities in most places, other than New England, the west coast and parts of the Midwest. But that message was designed to appeal to the former winner-take-all system, and tonight we'll see how successful it is in this brave new world. But who are the Liberals? They--"

Rich (BB code):
	MD-03		
	Lib          	130,126   	37.9%
	Prog          	85,416    	24.9%
	Nat          	55,759    	16.2%
	Fus          	55,012    	16%
	All          	17,096    	5%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	343,410
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Prog
			Lib

"Sorry Katty, we have to interrupt you there again."

"Right, we have our first result from Maryland."

"It's pronounced 'Murrilund'."

"Yes, I know, but then the viewers at home would think I was having a stroke...anyway, this is a funny-shaped state trapped between bigger neighbours, one of the original east-coast Thirteen Colonies again...I could talk about Catholics and its funky flag, but all you really care about is that "The Wire" was based on stuff in Baltimore. This is a very gerrymandered district that looks like a child scribbling on a map with a felt-tip pen - Maryland is an example that gerrymandering in the US was formerly done by Democrats as well as Republicans. Taking in the capital Anap-anna-anpa-"

"Annapolis."

"-thank you - and also Fort McHenry, which is where the US national anthem was written, about the Royal Navy bombarding it with HMS Erebus and HMS Terror, which later became polar research vessels."

"These days we would have to bombard it with Boaty McBoatface, what a terrifying thought."

"Quite - well, anyway, this formerly heavily Democratic district gives one seat to the Progressives but two to the Liberals."

"And speaking of which, sorry Katty, back to you."

"Thank you. As I was saying, the Liberals have obtained most of the old Democratic apparatus. Ideologically, they draw support from the centre and right of the former Democratic Party, though still to the left of the national average, you understand? In the former system, the two parties in Congress were divided into 'caucuses' expressing different ideological commonalities or policy goals, and the Liberals have mostly drawn from the New Democrat caucus - the ideological descendants of Bill Clinton's pro-business liberal supporters from the 90s - and the so-called Blue Dogs, the remnant of the moderate and conservative Democrats from the real big-tent days."

Rich (BB code):
	PA-17		
	Nat          	116,705   	38.1%
	Lib          	72,129    	23.5%
	Prog          	60,571    	19.8%
	Fus          	47,029    	15.3%
	All          	10,210    	3.3%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	306,644
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Prog

"That's our first result from Pennsylvania, but we'll come back to that state later - Katty, go on."

Kay hesitated. "The Liberals have also obtained the support of most high-profile BAME organisations within the old Democrats, who had caucuses devoted to black, Hispanic, and Asian-Americans."

"I think it's more that those could be joined by anyone, it's just the vast majority of those groups were in the Democrats."

"Ye-es...regardless, this commitment to diversity, to a rainbow America, has been at the heart of the party's message, and they have frequently attacked the rival Progressives, to their left, for allegedly being white-dominated." Kay coughed.

Rich (BB code):
	NJ-05		
	Nat          	144,742   	39.7%
	Lib          	97,422    	26.7%
	Prog          	76,541    	21%
	Fus          	33,316    	9.1%
	All          	12,524    	3.4%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	364,545
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Prog

"And another first, from New Jersey, but go on."

"Kay nodded. Now, for each of the parties, we've asked high-profile candidates as well as ordinary activists to tell us why they're supporting their party. Roll the VT..."

The screen was filled with the earnest face of a young activist with a campaign button that was a simple blue circle with a rainbow-striped 'L' in it. The activist looked suspiciously like he had been designed by one of those TIME magazine algorithms designed to model what the 'American of the future' would look like by averaging out the ethnic mix. "Why am I a Liberal?" he asked.

The video cut away to images of community action groups helping people, of 'nonstandard' families which looked uncannily like they were more taken from advertising reels than the real world, of people looking only mildly cross at medical bills. Over the top of this appeared clips of Liberal politicians, some with similar campaign buttons to the activists.

"I'm a Liberal because I believe in freedom," said a man identified as Tim Kaine - Outgoing Virginia Senator. "I grew up in an ordinary Minnesota family where my dad owned an ironworking shop, and when I was a young man I worked in Honduras and saw the dictatorship there. That was the alternative. In America we often take our freedom for granted. Now we have a new opportunity to show what we mean by freedom."

"I'm a Liberal because I believe in equality," said Alison Lundergan Grimes - Kentucky Secretary of State. "I've fought for our message in the heart of so-called red state America with gun in hand! Now under this new voting system which has magically appeared from the empty White House with no-one in it, we have a chance to show them that there are no red states and blue states!" The camera mercifully cut away as she started firing her weapon in the air.

"I'm a Liberal because I believe in justice," said Kamala Harris - California Attorney General. "All our children deserve to grow up in a kind, decent and safe world in which everyone who's looked at me funny has been locked up forever without parole. America is the land of opportunity where people can come from anywhere and realise their dreams, and together, we can change that. Wait, no-"

"I'm a Liberal because I believe in identity," said a man whose banner read - 'Martin O'Malley? Fmr. Maryland Governor? Maybe?' "America should be a place where everyone can be themselves without prejudice. Specifically, I'm interested in finding out my own identity, as I forgot who I was and no-one will tell me--"

"And I'm a Liberal because I believe in prosperity," said Michael Bloomberg - Fmr. NYC Mayor. "I was not a member of the old Democrats, but I am firmly convinced that it is only the Liberal Party that can deliver the strong economy that will restore Americans' right to fife, fiberty and the fursuit of fappiness. Wait, who's tampered with this autocue-"

The VT cut back to the earnest activist from the start. "And our standard bearer for this fight for equality and tolerance is a woman who has stood with us from the beginning, who has fought for us every day of her life." A black-and-white picture of a very young Hillary Clinton as an activist on the campaign trail, which hadn't quite been cropped well enough in Photoshop to cut out all traces of the nearby 'Goldwater '64' sign. "Whether it be in her fight for healthcare reform in the 90s--" These images, on the other hand, unaccountably seemed to have cropped out the President standing next to her, "--or her work on the campaign trail in 2008 shattering the glass ceiling!" Images of Clinton and Obama debating. "As Secretary of State she repaired our great nation's image abroad after the failures of the last administration." Image of Clinton pushing a literal 'reset button' with Sergei Lavrov, and then - peculiarly - cutting to her white-water rafting in a river near Benghazi with some disadvantaged kids. "Hillary Clinton is, without a doubt, the greatest human being ever to have lived, and if you don't vote for her - I mean, the Liberals - you're a racist." A sigh. "And yet she still won't peg m--"

Rich (BB code):
	PA-07		
	Lib          	109,497   	28.3%
	Nat          	94,067    	24.3%
	Fus          	87,388    	22.6%
	Prog          	81,102    	21%
	All          	14,285    	3.7%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	386,339
			
	MCs elected:		
			Lib
			Nat
			Fus

"Well, I'm sorry we had to cut your VT slightly short there Katty - fascinating stuff, really - because we've got another result from Pennsylvania. With the Liberals topping the polls, no less - tenuous link."

"Yes, in this case it's another gerrymandered district, but this particular drunken spider was in the service of the Republicans who ran the state government. Pennsylvania was generally considered a 'blue state' due to its ethnically diverse cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as its declining mining industry and union membership - a part of the old Democratic coalition that Katty's VT didn't go into much."

"Oh come on, nobody cares about that anymore."

"Well, anyway, Pennsylvania may have been a 'blue state' overall, but it was also once described as two cities with Alabama or Kentucky in between - in other words, the rural parts with the Appalachian Mountains were strongly Republican-voting. We can see that dichotomy here with these two results. The Liberals and Nationals are jockeying for prominence, with the third seat going in the first case to the Progressives and in the second case to the Fusionists - is that their first seat success I think?"

"Yes, that's correct; it appears that the attempts to bridge the gaps between the Conservative and Constitutionalist parties have not been entirely futile, at least in this state. We have to remember that America is a federation of many very different states, and the precise circumstances will be different from state to state."

Rich (BB code):
	NY-18		
	Nat          	101,361   	32.6%
	Lib          	77,840    	25.1%
	Prog          	68,347    	22%
	Fus          	50,782    	16.4%
	All          	12,144    	3.9%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	310,474
			
	MCs elected:		
			Nat
			Lib
			Prog


"Rather less success for the Fusionists here in New York, though. This district is north of New York City and includes lots of towns you've never heard of, and also Poughkeepsie which was in the title of an episode of Friends and is therefore important."

Rich (BB code):
	MA-09		
	Prog          	105,180   	26.9%
	Lib          	100,401   	25.7%
	Nat          	93,144    	23.8%
	Fus          	70,499    	18%
	All          	22,065    	5.6%
	Cst          	0         	0%
	Con          	0         	0%
			
		Total	391,289
			
	MCs elected:		
			Prog
			Lib
			Nat

"Back to Massachusetts with the 9th district, which takes in Cape Cod and God's gift to limerick writers, Nantucket."

"Again, it's striking that, unlike Maryland for instance--"

"Murrilund."

"--yes, that - Massachusetts, which is usually considered a pretty deep-blue state these days, is nonetheless giving its third seat to the populist Nationals. Most commentators had expected that if the right had won anything here, it would be the more moderate Conservatives - or the Fusionists in this case."

"Yes, but in order for the viewers at home to understand what a surprise this is, we'll need to look at more of the parties. Katty?"

"Wait, wait, can I update the New England map first?"

"...if you must."

New England half.png
 
Alison Lundergan Grimes being here feels oddly random. Never really heard of her before.

Great stuff,though I’m surprised you didn’t make another The Wire reference and say that O’Malley is guilty of Tommy Carcetti’s crimes,given that David Simon created the character just as a big fuck you to O’Malley and his policies.
 
Alison Lundergan Grimes being here feels oddly random. Never really heard of her before.
I was delighted to discover she did actually do a speech at the 2016 Democratic convention so I could use her, because I always like bringing up @Lord Roem 's description of her (from her 2014 senate run) as 'a woman with a gun who has never heard of President Obama' - after an interview she did where she basically refused to even mention his name in response to the interviewer bringing him up.

Great stuff,though I’m surprised you didn’t make another The Wire reference and say that O’Malley is guilty of Tommy Carcetti’s crimes,given that David Simon created the character just as a big fuck you to O’Malley and his policies.
Never actually seen it so I've never been sure of how true that was.
 
"I'm a Liberal because I believe in identity," said a man whose banner read - 'Martin O'Malley? Fmr. Maryland Governor? Maybe?' "America should be a place where everyone can be themselves without prejudice. Specifically, I'm interested in finding out my own identity, as I forgot who I was and no-one will tell me--"

bwahahahahaha

I was worried the Boaty McBoatreference was another case of time collapsing, but I checked and apparently that was...March 2016? Feels wrong for some reason.
 
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