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Alternate History General Discussion

David Flin said:
When Alison first devised the term, back in 1998 (before some people on this site were born, even), it was indeed intended as a rhetorical device. Basically, it was used as: "ASB grant all this impossible stuff, just for the sake of the argument. Even then ..."

The wiki article is wrong in stating that it was first used to debunk Sealion. That was when the term became entrenched. The first use was in the other AH scenario, a Confederate victory at Gettysburg leading to the capture of Washington DC and thence to a Confederate success in the war. Alison devised the term ASB (Alien Space Bats; AliSon Brooks) and said that even if these magical creatures ensured that the Army of the Potomac was removed from the battlefield, enabling Lee to win Gettysburg without firing a shot or losing a man, he's still not going to be able to overcome the Washington defences without a siege train, with what the troops have in the way of supplies (ammunition, mainly), with supply lines stretching through Pennsylvania, and all the rest. An exercise in pitting the AoNV against the Washington defences was about as one-sided as an Ashes test match (that was as true then as it is now).

Later, ASB were used extensively in Sealion debates. One that sticks in my mind was over a debate as to whether or not drop tanks for the Me109, to give it greater time over Britain, would have made a difference. In this case, ASBs were used to invoke Me109s that used no fuel and could carry infinite supplies of ammunition such that they never needed to return to base. With that granted, Alison then broke down the tasks that the Me109 was required to carry out, the number needed for each task, and compared the total to the number available. There simply weren't enough Me109s to go around, and some tasks would have to be left out, and leaving out any task results in Sealion failing.

She hated with a burning passion the move towards using ASB as a means for generating silly scenarios. She frequently said that she understood how Frankenstein felt on seeing his creation go out of control, and she wished she'd never devised the term. In due course, she accepted that the monster was loose, and she could tolerate the use of silly starting points provided they were then followed through logically. Her mind was changed by a scenario which posited the British isles and New Zealand being swapped in position, and the debate took that premise as given, and followed through on the implications.

She never liked the use of the term to mean: "Anything goes." She had intended it as a rhetorical device to aid analysis rather than as a tool to avoid it. When Stirling was writing Dies The Fire, he had the decency (and good for him) to ask if it was OK to use the term. The term was, by now, public currency, and I gave my permission. John Birmingham, naturally, just used the term.

The term has changed its use over the years, and it's a bit sad that the one thing that Alison is widely remembered for is the one thing she regretted ever doing. That's the way things are, sometimes.

But back in the day, ASBs were used as a debating tool, not as a means of scenario generation. Alas, the bastard things are now a substitute for thought than an aid to it.
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Thanks for the explanation. As I said, I had no idea she was your wife.
 
Coiler said:
I think 1945 (the invasion of Japan one) is Robert Conroys least bad novel.
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I bought 1862 not long after it came out after seeing it at a local Barnes & Noble and let it fester on my bookshelf unread for several years. I'm not sure what inspired me to finally read it, but I almost instantly regretted it. The lesbian date-rape partway through turned into the last straw for me and I skimmed the hell out of the rest of it so I could finish it. At one point I'd vowed not to read anything else by him, yet I picked up 1942 on Kindle awhile back when it got a steep discount. Not sure when I'm going to work up the nerve to actually read it.
 
Another weird AH idea I think of when I see "even worse WW2" settings (ie, AANW and The Big One): A super-Sweden (assuming its neutrality remains un-butterflied).

As the biggest (if not only) advanced European country untouched by the war, it fulfills the continental powerhouse role almost by default. Instead of BMWs you have Saabs, instead of Mercedes you have Volvos, and so on.
 
Coiler said:
Another weird AH idea I think of when I see "even worse WW2" settings (ie, AANW and The Big One): A super-Sweden (assuming its neutrality remains un-butterflied).

As the biggest (if not only) advanced European country untouched by the war, it fulfills the continental powerhouse role almost by default. Instead of BMWs you have Saabs, instead of Mercedes you have Volvos, and so on.
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These settings also ignore (for obvious reasons) the fact that not only Hungary and Romania were at knives with each other constantly over Transylvania (to the point where the Germans never brought them in the same room together to avoid conflict),but that Romania spent over half of its budget on maintaining Transnistria and fighting the war,to the point where,if the war kept going,the country was gonna go bankrupt.

Along with Super Sweden I see it mostly likely in this ”even worse WW2” TLs that eventually the Nazis have to deal either with Hungary and Romania going to wat over Transylvania consequences be damned or Romania going bankrupt and descending into anarchy,both being incredibly costly for them and the Reich going bankrupt as a result in 1947-early 1949 at best.
 
Yokai Man said:
These settings also ignore (for obvious reasons) the fact that not only Hungary and Romania were at knives with each other constantly over Transylvania (to the point where the Germans never brought them in the same room together to avoid conflict)
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There's actually a wargame setting where a Hungarian-Romanian conflict is the spark that sets off the next round of global fighting.
 
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