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Alternate History General Discussion

I think it's inevitable once you have world-spanning empires - if the metropole says "the empire goes to war", the colonies are off to war - but of course the empires being as vast as they are isn't inevitable either.
This is why it is argued that the Seven Years' War was the first world war - although there were wars beforehand that had both European and colonial participation (like the rest of the French and Indian Wars).
 
I think it's inevitable once you have world-spanning empires - if the metropole says "the empire goes to war", the colonies are off to war - but of course the empires being as vast as they are isn't inevitable either.

I meant a World War I analogue. Many people argue that even if Franz Ferdinand had lived, it was inevitable.
 
I meant a World War I analogue. Many people argue that even if Franz Ferdinand had lived, it was inevitable.
Austro-Hungary was gonna fall apart sooner or later,especially with Franz in charge given his distain for the Hungarian nobility and the latter becoming impossible to be satiated.


Heraclis makes a good case/scenario of Russia intervening on behalf of a Hungarian uprising,with WW1 happening in 1917 but with a Russia that has more railways.
 
There's also something to be said that eventually, when you've been running around for generations brutalizing the planet, you'll eventually be numb to the idea of brutalizing your neighbors and the planet in the name of more of the trinkets of victory. That is to say that for the European regimes of 1914 the suffering of war had become cheap. And once you make that cheap, launching a war against your neighbors becomes a more and more reasonable solution. Regardless of if you're in Paris, Berlin, Petrograd, Vienna, Budapest or London. Its the same callousness that helps the United States jump from genocidal colonial wars on the frontier to San Juan Hill or the Occupation of Haiti.
 
Not quite inevitable, but avoiding it would have required (somehow) changing the alliance system, reducing the tendency to sabre-rattle at the slightest diplomatic dispute, and decoupling things such that there are stages of mobilisation. And possibly changing a few mental views that led to: "AH is going to war with Serbia, and Russia is supporting Serbia, so Germany will help by attacking France through neutral Belgium - it's the only plan possible."

Maybe, just maybe (very unlikely) a severe shock in 1914 might have brought about a re-evaluation of the system in place.
Reading the tone of coverage at the time, it feels like the view was that a general European war was something like how we view climate change now (perhaps) - a disaster we can all see coming, and which almost everyone wants to prevent, but there's a sense that nobody is doing enough and it's inevitable. (Example as I couldn't find the one I was looking for, from the Glasgow Herald in December 1912)

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Austro-Hungary was gonna fall apart sooner or later,especially with Franz in charge given his distain for the Hungarian nobility and the latter becoming impossible to be satiated.


Heraclis makes a good case/scenario of Russia intervening on behalf of a Hungarian uprising,with WW1 happening in 1917 but with a Russia that has more railways.

It was an unsustainable global system, so yes.
Not quite inevitable, but avoiding it would have required (somehow) changing the alliance system, reducing the tendency to sabre-rattle at the slightest diplomatic dispute, and decoupling things such that there are stages of mobilisation. And possibly changing a few mental views that led to: "AH is going to war with Serbia, and Russia is supporting Serbia, so Germany will help by attacking France through neutral Belgium - it's the only plan possible."

Maybe, just maybe (very unlikely) a severe shock in 1914 might have brought about a re-evaluation of the system in place.
Reading the tone of coverage at the time, it feels like the view was that a general European war was something like how we view climate change now (perhaps) - a disaster we can all see coming, and which almost everyone wants to prevent, but there's a sense that nobody is doing enough and it's inevitable. (Example as I couldn't find the one I was looking for, from the Glasgow Herald in December 1912)

View attachment 46110

There's also something to be said that eventually, when you've been running around for generations brutalizing the planet, you'll eventually be numb to the idea of brutalizing your neighbors and the planet in the name of more of the trinkets of victory. That is to say that for the European regimes of 1914 the suffering of war had become cheap. And once you make that cheap, launching a war against your neighbors becomes a more and more reasonable solution. Regardless of if you're in Paris, Berlin, Petrograd, Vienna, Budapest or London. Its the same callousness that helps the United States jump from genocidal colonial wars on the frontier to San Juan Hill or the Occupation of Haiti.

I disagree. There had been crises where war had been avoided. People wanted to avoid such a war. As I said, I know I am in a minority on this topic.
 
I disagree. There had been crises where war had been avoided. People wanted to avoid such a war. As I said, I know I am in a minority on this topic.
As @David Flin says, peace has to be lucky every time, war only has to be lucky once. I would also say that the fact crises kept happening suggests that people weren't entirely anti-war. If they were truly anti-war European countries would stop behaving so belligerently and nearly going to war every few years.
 
I disagree. There had been crises where war had been avoided. People wanted to avoid such a war. As I said, I know I am in a minority on this topic.
There's always people who want to avoid wars, unfortunately it is a critical component of human history that they can't always win out.

The nations of Europe had spent the past century in a heady orgy of war and rape and pillage. The imperial boomerang always comes home. It was going to win out at some point, the only question then is the length and the width of it all.
 
As @David Flin says, peace has to be lucky every time, war only has to be lucky once. I would also say that the fact crises kept happening suggests that people weren't entirely anti-war. If they were truly anti-war European countries would stop behaving so belligerently and nearly going to war every few years.

There was support for limited wars, but everyone was afraid of a world war.
 
There was support for limited wars, but everyone was afraid of a world war.
It's rather like tactical nuclear weapons though. It becomes very hard to find the line that separates the big and the little and no real way to ensure things don't accelerate.

The Balkan Wars were both one big crisis and a dozen or so smaller crises that continually almost set things off. Any small war that "lets off the steam" risks a full explosion.
 
Agree with the point that the problem with having to be lucky every time there's a crisis, is that you only have to be unlucky once. Add in agents who increasingly believe that the probability of themselves in particular being unlucky is trending towards 1, and that well, wouldn't it be better to force something sooner, on something nearer their own terms?

That said, I'd read a detailed great power by great power, year-by-year timeline where the plates just about keep spinning, perhaps all the way through the c.1890-192? period until some new unpredictable and possibly horrific equilibrium is reached.
 
There was support for limited wars, but everyone was afraid of a world war.
Except the Great Powers kept provoking other Great Powers, even though it was obvious that a war between two Great Powers would escalate into a pan-European war. Like, there's no way Germany can threaten to go to war with France in the Tangiers Crisis and think "Yeah, this is going to be a limited war." I'll grant you that there was a lot of bluffing going on, but it's also clear that the Great Powers were willing to accept the possibility of stumbling into a world war, seeing it as a price of enforcing their aims (another way to put it is that they had a serious gambling problem, and figured that if you want to play with the high rollers you have to be willing to lose everything).
 
I always assumed that was just "quick, we need a new doctor character. People liked McCoy, right? Just copy paste him being crusty and prejudiced against Spock to new doctor being crusty and prejudiced against Data" and it coming across as a bit inauthentic.

There was also the problem of a lot of character issues in the first two seasons, partly because they had too many characters in ill-defined roles; mainly Georgi (the blind guy flying the ship), Worf (what was his job again?), Tasha (not up to the task), and Wesley Sue Crusher, not to mention a bunch of chief engineers, none of whom lasted long enough to make any real impression. My honest feeling is that they didn't do much thinking about the background and it shows.

Things got sorted out a lot in seasons 2-3. Geordi becomes Chief Engineer, Worf becomes Head of Security, Yar gets killed (a shame, but Crosby was't up to the task), leaving Wesley as the only real poorly-conceived character. Maybe not fair on Wheaton, but he never really matured as an actor until it was too late to save the character - really, they'd have been better going with a Harry Kim-like character instead. However, the show largely focuses on Picard, Riker, Worf and Data - everyone else is pretty much secondary, as they're not interesting characters:

Interesting: Picard, Worf, Data
Middling: Riker, Geordi
Uninteresting: Troi, Crusher
Terrible: Wesley

Contrast this to DS9, where all of the characters were interesting and well-defended. But DS9 was an arc-show, so it could afford to set up the groundwork.
 
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