AHC/WI: Alternate successor to Adenauer?

[Nanwe]

In 1963, Konrad Adenauer was succeeded as West German Chancellor by Ludwig Erhardt. Erhardt had been Adenauer's successful Economy Minister since 1949, and was seen as the father of the German economic miracle of the post-war era. He was also far more anglophile and anti-EEC, francophobe than Adenauer had been, which meant that the relations between the two countries worsened while Erhardt became an important ally to Britain within the EEC as it tried to enter it.

Now, say that for whatever reason Adenauer or the CDU/CSU decide that someone else should succeed Adenauer, who could it be and how could that happen? I'm asking because I'm honestly quite ignorant about Germany's history during this period, and not speaking German probably doesn't help.

 

[Stateless]

If it became more widely known that Erhard wasn't a CDU member and he continues to refuse to join, it's feasible that he can't become leader. That would seem to be the simplest way to avoid his becoming Chancellor.

 

[RyanF]

Adenauer and Erhard were not on the best terms by the late 1950s over, amongst other things, the EEC. It's thought this is part of the reason Adenauer abandoned a run for the presidency in 1959, fearing Erhard would succeed him as Chancellor - instead the malleable Heinrich Lübke became the CDU candidate and eventually President. Perhaps if Adenauer can manoeuvre Lübke as successor over Erhard he would have stepped down to run for head of state, which he almost certainly would have won. I think Adenauer new about Erhard's non-membership in the CDU so he could have used it against him if he was so inclined, but perhaps at the time Erhard was still valuable to Adenauer in spite of their disagreements. A butterfly of such a scenario might be the role of President becoming less ceremonial as Adenauer would still want to keep involved in day-to-day politics - almost like Putin's time as Prime Minister from 2008-2012 - perhaps even as far as moving towards a semi-presidential system down the line if the trend is set.

Early 1959 also saw more pressure put on the Adenauer government to recognise the Oder-Neisse Line and pursue non-aggression pacts with Czechoslovakia and Poland. Adenauer initially committed to both but soon ran afoul of the expellee lobby, led by his own Minister for Refugees Theodor Oberländer. Oberländer was an ex-Nazi and that same year it emerged that he was a war criminal, in spite of this in December a statement was issued that Oberländer had the full confidence of cabinet. He was not compelled to resign until May of 1960, at Adenauer's request once many in the Party made it clear it would be for the best. This situation might prove interesting with Adenauer as President and a puppet Lübke as Chancellor, if it is mishandled it might prove for a worse 1961 election for the CDU/CSU.

 

[Nanwe]

Developing on the scenario of Adenauer as President and someone else as Chancellor:

What about Franz Etzel? Reading on this, he apparently was Adenauer's preferred candidate for Chancellor. He also had his conflict with Gerhardt over the EEC, being one of its drafters.

Then there are the candidates that seemed acceptable to the FDP in 1961: Eugen Gerstenmaier, who was a 'Gerdhardite' in social and economic policy and critical of Adenauer's prioritisation of engagement with the West over German reunification; and Heinrich Krone. Krone was very close to Adenauer, apparently had no interest in the Chancellery and was popular with the CDU/CSU parliamentary group (being its president between 1955-1961).

Krone could be interesting, apparently, he was far more focused on domestic policies and acting like a 'dull civil servant' than a proper politician, so Adenauer could keep the prestige and the focus on the Western German foreign policy.

EDIT: Then there's, of course, Gerhard Schröder, who might have been too strong a political figure to be a vassal to Adenauer-as-President, but could make an interesting successor.

 

[Nanwe]

@RyanF of the potential candidates (Lübcke, Etzel, Gerstenmaier, Krone, Schröder) which ones could be more likely to succeed Adenauer? I'm thinking either in the set up you mentioned with Adenauer as President or as a regular Chancellor successor that's not Gerdhardt. I think Schröder would likely be Adenauer's ideal successor (if it happens before their fallout in 1963) but Etzel also had the support of Krone as the leader of the parliamentary group and of von Brentano. I think Etzel has the benefit of not being either Gerhardt or Schröder. What do you think?

 

[RyanF]

@RyanF of the potential candidates (Lübcke, Etzel, Gerstenmaier, Krone, Schröder) which ones could be more likely to succeed Adenauer? I'm thinking either in the set up you mentioned with Adenauer as President or as a regular Chancellor successor that's not Gerdhardt. I think Schröder would likely be Adenauer's ideal successor (if it happens before their fallout in 1963) but Etzel also had the support of Krone as the leader of the parliamentary group and of von Brentano. I think Etzel has the benefit of not being either Gerhardt or Schröder. What do you think?

Not an area I'm overly knowledgeable of I'm afraid, but if Adenauer were to become the power behind the throne (no guarantee of course, as OTL he chose to continue as Chancellor rather than run for President because of how powerless the latter role was) he might want someone with a bit more of their own initiative than Lübcke, who as Chancellor might prove even more of a liability than he did as President, where as Gerstenmaier might be too close to Erhard in his leanings for Adenauer to want him. Leaves us with Schröder, Krone and Etzel, and depending on how the Oberländer scandal plays out Schröder's status as a former Nazi Party and SA member; if Krone did not want the job he might be less likely to want it as Adenauer's front man, so Etzel might be the choice who best fits the bill. The bill being Adenauer becomes President but still wants some measure of political power over the day-to-day running of the country.