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AHC: Bashar Al-Assad still seen as a moderating force in the Middle East

Gorrister

Actually Existing Paisleyism
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I've wanted to post this, because it's been something I've thought about recently and tomorrow is the anniversary of his rise to power. Possibly too close to the present day to be discussed cogently but eh

It's only been over the past six or seven years that Assad has garnered his well deserved reputation as a monster. Beforehand, he was seen as a typical moderate dictator, having been able to ease tensions with the west by 2008. His wife, Asma, was particularly popular, receiving a rather glowing puff piece from Vogue, who have unsurprisingly scrubbed it from the internet since since. My question is how on earth could this be preserved to the modern day? My suggestion is somehow butterflying the drought that went on in Syria between 2006 and 2010, which helped contribute to instability.
 
As an addition with no drought, perhaps the Government could co-opt the Arab spring albeit limited with no Civil War? how does that affect ISIL since with no free hand in Syria do they blitz near Baghdad like OTL?
 
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