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AHC: A Corbyn majority

Bolt451

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I've written a few lists with Labour in power post 2015 (or 16) but usually they're minorities with Lib Dem or SNP support or coalitions following a Lib Dem resurgence.

So my first question is. How do you get Jeremy Corbyn into no.10 after his election as leader in 2015.

And secondly. How do the rest of Labour, especially the PLP behave once he has a majority

thirdly. What policies do you think Labour will get through?
 

Charles EP M.

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It's weird to remember "Leadsom as PM" is an unlikely but still plausible AH. She just has to actually run instead of dropping out. Of course, Leadsom could do better if she calls the election earlier and doesn't have the events (dear boy) of mid-17 hit. Leadsom is also not as easy to hurt over Windrush, she wasn't Home Secretary.

If there's still a terror attack and Corbyn goes "Tories cut police we will FUND police", that may cut through even more if Leadsom is seen as a bit feeble and gaff-y.

Add in more Remain Tories voting Lib Dem as a result of Leadsom, Brexit, and "well Corbyn won't win, right?" (this may need Farron to handle questions about gay sex better).

Unsure if the Tories doing worse in Scotland will help, since that undercuts their majority but it doesn't necessarily help Corbyn if the seats remain SNP ones. Any big change there probably means a change of Scottish Labour leadership and Corbyn doesn't seem like he';s going to do that (cos he didn't).
 

Time Enough

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Unsure if the Tories doing worse in Scotland will help, since that undercuts their majority but it doesn't necessarily help Corbyn if the seats remain SNP ones. Any big change there probably means a change of Scottish Labour leadership and Corbyn doesn't seem like he';s going to do that (cos he didn't).
Dugdale imploding and the Salmond revelations and everything that comes with it could help there.
 

Oppo

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Dugdale imploding and the Salmond revelations and everything that comes with it could help there.
Definitely a good POD to work with - Salmond is obviously still in Westminster so it will be harder for the SNP to distance themselves from him. The oddities of FPTP mean that with even a decent Labour lead in Scotland (which a lot of the immediate post-2017 polls showed) the SNP could be nearly wiped out electorally.
 

Nomad

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I don't think that on its own results in 60 odd seats flipping from Tory to Labour. But there are dozens of SNP seats that Labour weren't too far off from taking back in 2017. So I think the solution is to screw over both the Tories and the SNP by having Grenfell and the Salmond revelations happening before the election.

If you want a more comfortable majority, then I think you need to badly split the right wing vote. Maybe have no Brexit, and Leave voters defect en masse to UKIP. May or Gove some other unpopular leader takes over from Cameron, then you end up with a GE where Labour experience a 2017 style surge, but also combined with many OTL Tory voters go over to UKIP.

That, or a Labour minority lasting till COVID hits, Corbyn somehow coming out of the situation rather well, and you get an NZ type result.

Obviously, what they get through depends on how big the majority is. I'd imagine there would be little opposition to the economic agenda given MPs stood on it. The main points of contention would probably be similar to what they were in opposition IOTL, Brexit, Anti-Semitism, and Foreign Policy.
 

Southpaw

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Would a Labour majority attempt to/succeed in cancelling the Trident replacement? The OTL vote for renewal in 2016 was pretty crushingly in favor, even among Labour MPs.
 
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Nomad

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Assuming this is a 2017 election scenario, how big of a majority does Corbyn need to get a Brexit deal passed through Parliament? Does he need to rely solely on Labour votes or can he arrange the fabled cross-party deal? Does a snap election end up getting called as in 2019?
There is even less of a chance of a cross party deal in this situation. Labour's main interest in striking one was in neutralising a politically awkward issue. Unlike them, the Tories actually have a viable path to power by committing strongly to one side, and it just so happened to be the one that most of their membership (and probably the new leadership) agree with. They'd do all they could to talk up a Corbyn Brexit as a national betrayal, and try and use the issue to hound Labour from office.

There will still be a lot of Labour rebels from the Remain side, though may be less than OTL if its a Labour government negotiating the deal. I'd imagine it could pass it's deal with a relatively small majority of 20 plus if it accepted the confirmatory public vote that many Remainers were pushing for at the time, as the SNP and Lib Dems would likely row in behind it.

But without that, my guess is that you'd need a landslide majority approaching 150 seats to get it through the Commons with no referendum attached.
 

Charles EP M.

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"Brexit but there's a public vote on it" seems the only way Corbyn's getting it through. He'd still have the issue of having to actually do the talks with the EU and most Tories & the DUP opposing it on principle, but I can see it just getting through if only because X number of MPs see a second referendum as the real reason they're voting for it.

Then you'd have a real problem because Corbyn would campaign for his Brexit deal while most of his party campaigns to Remain. That could fatally wound him with the membership.
 

Bolt451

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Assuming this is a 2017 election scenario, how big of a majority does Corbyn need to get a Brexit deal passed through Parliament? Does he need to rely solely on Labour votes or can he arrange the fabled cross-party deal? Does a snap election end up getting called as in 2019?
I did a brief list where Corbyn falls short by a few seats of a majority, just needing the Lib Dems (and to a lesser extent, the SNP and PC) to get things over the line. He renegotiates a deal but has to put it to a referendum. I wrote that the leave side take it as a "Its better than nothing and we can renegotiate it later" scenario and we still leave, albeit with a Norway Plus kinda deal. In hindsight I think we might remain in this situtation

Then you'd have a real problem because Corbyn would campaign for his Brexit deal while most of his party campaigns to Remain. That could fatally wound him with the membership.
ooh, at the next election you could have a revitalised Lib Dems in govt with a Tory party still utterly torn on Brexit (maybe with whatever flavour of Farage is going getting a boost on a policy of withdrawing from any potential Corbyn deal. or a third referendum in general )

Of course, this depends on how the govt react to Covid
 

tukarambhakt

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Windrush uncovered five days before the election, Greenfell happens two days before the election, theresa may has a severe bout of diarrhea when the tragedy strikes, so she can't go to the site to show solidarity to the poors.
It surprises me that this semi joke post has a good like ratio, despite the ridiculousness of it.
I should do a TL about that, lmfao
 

Artaxerxes

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Rather than Labour exploding post Brexit Corbyn gets a week or a month of good solid "fuck lets get out, we voted Leave" messaging out while the Tories explode.

Best I can see happening with that is the coupers spend a lot longer gearing up and you still get a ruckus but that solid bit of campaigning sticks in voters minds as Corbyn "getting it" far better than anyone in the Conservative party given his long history of euro-skepticism.

It surprises me that this semi joke post has a good like ratio, despite the ridiculousness of it.
I should do a TL about that, lmfao
Only ASB is May being ill, she needed no help fucking up the response to Grenfell and dithering.
 

Bolt451

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Windrush uncovered five days before the election, Greenfell happens two days before the election, theresa may has a severe bout of diarrhea when the tragedy strikes, so she can't go to the site to show solidarity to the poors.
I did a list about the first bit, well, a month early. I trusted ATL May enough to fuck up her response. Had Labour fall just short of a majority, worked with Lib Dems and SNP to get a second referendum through (based on a deal Starmer neogitated) and Lib Dem S&C to get through a program of domestic policies that was watered down.
 
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