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Actual effects of Huey Long avoiding Assassination?

Aznavour

Well-known member
Published by SLP
Everyone who's been into Alternate History for more than five minutes knows who Huey Long is, so we can skip that part and go straight to the question: What if he hadn't been assassinated in 1935? Or, more to the point, What if Huey Long hadn't been assassinated in 1935, and the author isn't trying to make some President Huey Long AH?

Let's imagine the Louisiana Strongman lives, which of course leads to the next logical step, imagining what he does for the 1936 Presidential Election.

Now, allegedly Long was a strong enough candidate that Roosevelt and his campaign manager were somewhat worried, and the Governor had assembled a coterie of like-minded individuals witht he purpose of turning the Share Our Wealth Program into a national campaign for president. This is where we find ourselves with 2 possibilities:

1. That Long himself would run, gathering the support of enough New Deal dissidents, populist figures and dissaffected ex-New Dealers, from Father Coughlin to the ex-EPIC people in California and whoever else he might find, do well enough to disrupt the campaign and use the failed 1936 campaign to get exposure for a 1940 run. Ideally (for Long), a Third Party run in '36 would ensure a Republican victory and leave the path open for the next Democratic Convention, but the fact that the Republicans saw fit to nominate a man such as Alf Landon means that the best Long could hope might be numbers similar to that of Dixiecrats Strom Thurmond in '48 or George Wallace in '68.

2. Run a surrogate candidate for the Third Party Share Our Wealth program, which has the benefit of not exposing himself but the massive downsize of probably not getting him the exposure needed, unless he did the bulk of the campaigning himself anyway, or the sacrificial lamb not being strong enough, even with the support of Long, Coughlin and whoever, to put a dent into Roosevelt's nigh invulnerable machine.


For the sake of keeping things interesting, we can imagine Scenario 1, with Long getting from 6 to 10 million votes and a couple of southern states, maybe give Landon a third lily white New England state to his collection, and trying to challenge Roosevelt's Third Term project four years later, as Scenario 2 would probably just be Senator Long realizing running Some Dude was not the best strategy and fading into the miasma that is the 1930s-1940s Conservative Senate.



Long story short, would Huey Long living matter all that much, in the medium and long term, for the Democratic Party and American politics?
 
For the sake of keeping things interesting, we can imagine Scenario 1, with Long getting from 6 to 10 million votes and a couple of southern states, maybe give Landon a third lily white New England state to his collection

Landon came very close to getting New Hampshire IOTL, so that flips in any ticket-splitting. The next shoe to drop is probably his native Kansas (which was decently close), if there are enough rural populists out there who vote for Long. That gives Landon 4 states and 21 electoral votes. FDR won Massachusetts by less than ten points, but that seems a tall order.

Even giving Landon Massachusetts and Delaware and Long every single state in the former Confederacy still has FDR a comfortable electoral college majority.
 
Landon came very close to getting New Hampshire IOTL, so that flips in any ticket-splitting. The next shoe to drop is probably his native Kansas (which was decently close), if there are enough rural populists out there who vote for Long. That gives Landon 4 states and 21 electoral votes. FDR won Massachusetts by less than ten points, but that seems a tall order.

Even giving Landon Massachusetts and Delaware and Long every single state in the former Confederacy still has FDR a comfortable electoral college majority.
Depending on who runs and how comfortable most southern politicians are with Long (which is to say, not comfortable at all), I could see Long with a ceiling of Louisiana (where he would probably be the Democratic nominee along with the SOW candidate) and maybe one other southern state and a state from the plains, maybe one of the Dakotas or Minnesota if he can get the Farmer-Labor types on his side.

Still, that’s a big ask, but if he can get that he’s probably doing better than Landon in the Electoral College.
 
Depending on who runs and how comfortable most southern politicians are with Long (which is to say, not comfortable at all), I could see Long with a ceiling of Louisiana (where he would probably be the Democratic nominee along with the SOW candidate) and maybe one other southern state and a state from the plains, maybe one of the Dakotas or Minnesota if he can get the Farmer-Labor types on his side.

Still, that’s a big ask, but if he can get that he’s probably doing better than Landon in the Electoral College.
Poor Alf,in almost all timelines he never seems to win much.
 
Jumping in with a tangent thought: What are the chances of Long being offered the VP slot in 1936, and being willing to accept it? Given that he and his then-VP John Nance Garner were frequently at odds over the New Deal by this time, FDR might be looking for someone who would back his programs (even push them harder, if conservative Dems and the GOP banded together enough in Congress to force the use of the VP's tie-breaking vote), and who could still offer regional balance on the ticket; all the more so, if he'd managed to draw more of the populists and dissidents listed above. Where it gets iffy is whether Long would accept what was basically a sinecure (even if he used it to push FDR from the semi-left and advocate Share Our Wealth from an even higher pulpit), whether the Dem. Party leadership would accept/tolerate Long as VP (the Southern wing might, given his status quo/indifferent stance on race), and whether Long would contemplate his own Presidential run in 1940, or later, a la Wallace.
 
but the fact that the Republicans saw fit to nominate a man such as Alf Landon
This is rather off-topic, but Landon wasn’t necessarily a bad candidate. 1936 was a bad year for the Republicans, and Landon was one of the only high-profile politicians who hadn’t lost reelection in 1932/1934. Had he waited until 1940 or 1948, Landon could have easily become president.
 
This is rather off-topic, but Landon wasn’t necessarily a bad candidate. 1936 was a bad year for the Republicans, and Landon was one of the only high-profile politicians who hadn’t lost reelection in 1932/1934. Had he waited until 1940 or 1948, Landon could have easily become president.
Yeah Landon was a 1912er. So was Hoover so let that sink in but I mean he was a Liberal Republican, would have done well. I really want to do a Landon 1948 TL where he's able to get the US into the EEC like he wanted.
 
Yeah Landon was a 1912er. So was Hoover so let that sink in but I mean he was a Liberal Republican, would have done well. I really want to do a Landon 1948 TL where he's able to get the US into the EEC like he wanted.
I would actually love that.

You should have a Patreon account.
 
Ok, so in regards to Long, his plan, besides the fact that he was looking for a proxy to run for the third party is basically the blueprint that George Wallace used in 1968/1972 before his spinal column got wasted. I think Huey would do better, especially if we're avoiding his death. But I do think its not all that crazy that 1940 could with his survival as the POD see him organize a pretty effective challenge to FDR and the Third Term. Had Garner been less of a Conservative and not been sniping against McNutt's shadowboxing campaign and Farley's Old Progressives challenge he probably could have done more. I don't expect Farley to endorse Long whom he hated but I do think Huey would be able to appeal to more on the Democratic Left. That wasn't particularly strong though and was really just coming into the form we would know it to be during the Truman to Johnson Admins. If FDR isn't willing to run for a third term in this case then Long has a better chance but still will be the underdog vs whoever has the endorsement.
 
Yeah Landon was a 1912er. So was Hoover so let that sink in but I mean he was a Liberal Republican, would have done well. I really want to do a Landon 1948 TL where he's able to get the US into the EEC like he wanted.
Japhy once again making me learn new interesting yet unimportant stuff that I won't forget about for weeks.

At least make a list out of the idea.
 
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