A More Successful 'Spring Tide' and it's Outcomes?

[Time Enough]

So I've discussed this with @neonduke before but I'm rather interested in the idea of the Irish Labour Party having an even more successful 'Spring Tide' in 1992.

I have two proposals for how this could happen;

1). Fine Gael's decline get's even worse and Labour gains even more seats from there collapse, Alan Dukes decides to take the Social Democratic wing into coalition with Dick Spring as well as Democratic Left (despite the awkward relationship between the two).

2). Irish Labour rolls the dice and something similar to Sinn Fein in 2020 occurs. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in the 1990s won't be making a coalition government so Dick Spring forms one with Democratic Left and Greens.

Each one offers different outcomes in the long run, now some things that occurred OTL will still occur here, much of Labour's manifesto was accomplished by the Fianna Fail-Labour after all. Stuff like the Good Friday agreement and ceasefires would probably still occur too.

But Dick Spring being able to run his own Government successfully would certainly turn Ireland into more of a three party state in the long run. Fianna Fail would probably in time regain ground like it did in OTL but what happens to Fine Gael would be interesting. Also Sinn Fein's slow raise would probably would be quashed if the Labour Party can burst it's eventual Left Wing turn.

 

[neonduke]

We discussed this previously and as I understand it Labour made the same mistake as SF in 2020 by not running enough seats. Now thats still not going to get them enough to put them in the driving seat so you will need a combination of Labour gains and pretty major FF/FG losses.

With Fianna Fail perhaps the various corruption scandals come to light earlier and that has decimates FF turnout and also pushes more voters to the Progressive Democrats. Splitting Fine Gael is the one I struggle with as while there were undoubtedly fissures within the party I don't see their vote falling much lower in 1992 than it did, unless they get caught up in the FF scandals in a "pox on all your houses" recrimination from the public.

In that situation Labour can probably form a government but for how long? A multi-party coalition will be its nature be tempestuous and while FF/FG will be unlikely to team up this early I can see a lot of tactical voting in the Dail to undermine the new administration. The Spring government is going to get an absolute roasting in FF/FG leaning press too like we saw in '97.

 

[Time Enough]

With Fianna Fail perhaps the various corruption scandals come to light earlier and that has decimates FF turnout and also pushes more voters to the Progressive Democrats. Splitting Fine Gael is the one I struggle with as while there were undoubtedly fissures within the party I don't see their vote falling much lower in 1992 than it did, unless they get caught up in the FF scandals in a "pox on all your houses" recrimination from the public.

Yeah, I think if Dick Spring can spend longer hammering the FF for scandals then he would be seen as a proper alternative, maybe the Gilmartin affair comes out earlier or Pádraig Flynn and Charlie Haughey have scandals at the same time etc. As for Fine Gael, it could be if they voted in some else than John Bruton maybe?

Not as sure on that one. If the Progressive Democrats can position itself as the Anti-Corruption party of the Right then that syphons some votes away from FF and FG.

In that situation Labour can probably form a government but for how long? A multi-party coalition will be its nature be tempestuous and while FF/FG will be unlikely to team up this early I can see a lot of tactical voting in the Dail to undermine the new administration. The Spring government is going to get an absolute roasting in FF/FG leaning press too like we saw in '97.

True, I feel like Dick Spring would have to gain the support of a lot of Independents and definitely the Greens (who I could see position themselves to the Left of Labour, particularly if we see an early Democratic Left-Labour merger) to get stuff past. Also it would be interesting the effect of getting Democratic Left into a coalition given the pairs early animosity towards each other in the early 90s. Also yeah, they'll be attacked in the Press but I think even if Labour manages to get at least half of the stuff they intend to do then it could have ramifications for the future of Irish politics.

I think also one of the effects of a more successful Spring Tide would be that Irish politics wouldn't be just FF/FG domination any more. If Dick Spring and Labour could prove themselves, then in the long run you could see even more successful Labour Governments (though it does also mean avoiding the mistakes like picking folks like Ruairi Quinn for Labour).

 

[Time Enough]

I just realised the idea of Dick Spring asking for Tony Gregory for support and that would be something.