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A more significant bombing of Dublin in WWII and it's aftereffects

neonduke

Kenneth Kaunda drip
Since we have had a run of WWII posts recently thought I'd pose this question.

While Ireland was "officially" a neutral nation,Dublin (and other parts of Ireland) would suffer some bombing from Luftwaffe bombers gone astray


The most serious was the North Strand attack, which killed 28 people. There is some debate on whether this was another accident or a more co-ordinated warning to the Republic after it had dispatched help to Belfast following their blitz.

I wonder if a more serious bombing, resulting in a dramatic loss of life and damage, would change any of Ireland's actions as the war goes on? I can't see the Republic joining the war at this stage, but perhaps once the Americans come in and the threat of bombing has lessened lingering public anger may make it possible? At the very least it may dissuade De Valera from his dimmer decisions like paying respects upon Hitler's death.

Possibly there could be a warming of relations between Northern Ireland and the Republic should they have been seen to take their licks as well. Materially Ireland won't add much to the war effort but would provide greater range for aircraft into the Atlantic for one.
 
I'd imagine an Ireland in the war would end up being something like Argentina or Mexico, at the most Brazil - some token forces in certain fronts but nothing groundbreaking.
 
Yeah, I severely doubt they will drop their neutrality unless it becomes obvious that they are being directly and systematically targeted, or Hitler just decided to declare war on them; though that seems very remote.

A potential interesting butterfly might be that Irish volunteers are treated better upon their return to Ireland and not shunned as per OTL. Would be interesting if that helped spur improved Anglo-Irish relations post war.
 
Yeah, I severely doubt they will drop their neutrality unless it becomes obvious that they are being directly and systematically targeted, or Hitler just decided to declare war on them; though that seems very remote.

A potential interesting butterfly might be that Irish volunteers are treated better upon their return to Ireland and not shunned as per OTL. Would be interesting if that helped spur improved Anglo-Irish relations post war.

The one possible exception to this I can imagine is if the Germans hit somewhere specific or killed someone important -- like, for example, if Dev himself was killed in a German air raid. And even in that instance, I don't think that makes it in any way certain or even necessarily likely depending on the circumstances that neutrality would end.
 
I think if Leinster House got hit by an SC250, even at night while it was empty, even if it was accidental, attitudes among the Dublin political elite would be brought closer to London.

I can see Churchill quickly ruining this, though.

Áras an Uachtaráin was damaged during the North Strand raid, if it takes a direct hit and President Hyde is present at the time and is killed that could change things, although I can see the Germans making a prompt apology to try and diffuse tensions.

For big changes, such as joining the Allies, you really need Fianna Fail to lose in 1938 and a Fine Gael government in place. FF and de Valera where wedded to neutrality and honestly it would probably take German paratroopers dropping in Phoenix Park to get Ireland to declare war.

Though thinking about it it may be interesting if you can work it for FF to lose the 1943 election and then have an FG government join the Allies post D-Day, to make sure they are on the winning side. Perhaps if the above scenario of President Hyde being killed happens and FG and Labour are able to spin it as "Dev said neutrality would keep us safe, if couldn't save the President"?
 
Though thinking about it it may be interesting if you can work it for FF to lose the 1943 election and then have an FG government join the Allies post D-Day, to make sure they are on the winning side. Perhaps if the above scenario of President Hyde being killed happens and FG and Labour are able to spin it as "Dev said neutrality would keep us safe, if couldn't save the President"?

"Neutrality failed" followed by Irish troops fighting in France & the Low Countries feels like it'd have a huge knock-on effect for Ireland's Cold War status i.e. "not being in NATO, so the Russians can just attack us anyway like Germany did?"
 
"Neutrality failed" followed by Irish troops fighting in France & the Low Countries feels like it'd have a huge knock-on effect for Ireland's Cold War status i.e. "not being in NATO, so the Russians can just attack us anyway like Germany did?"
Ireland was already basically NATO. Russians were going to hit it, Americans were going to use Shannon. Neutrality was something of a polite fiction, same for the Nordics.
 
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