1230: Scramble for Constantinople

[Aznavour]

The Year: 1230.

The Players:

• Theodore Komnenos Doukas Emperor operating from Epirus and Thessaloniki
• John III Doukas Vatatzes Emperor operating from Anatolia
• Ivan Asen II Tsar of Bulgaria
• John of Brienne Latin Emperor of Constantinople
• Kayqubad I Seljuq Sultan of Rūm

Other Players: Venice, Trebizond, Crusaders in Morea.

The Situation: 20 years after the Fourth Crusade and things are not looking good for the Crusaders, low on men and legitimacy, sandwiched between the rising claimants Theodore in Europe and John in Anatolia, while the Bulgarians and Seljuqs look on from just outside, in search of the right time to make a move.

Come 1230 and Theodore, in control of Epirus, Thessaloniki and Macedonia has decided to make a move on Constantinople, and might have succeeded, but instead he turned north against his Bulgarian allies and was captured at the battle of Klokonitsa, where Tsar Ivan Asen put an end to the man's claim to the throne and empire, which his sons were unable to properly take up, whereas their rivals in Nicaea would not get to Constantinople til 1261.

Possibilities:

• What if Ivan Asen had been accepted as regent for the young Latin Emperor instead of John of Brienne?

Would this effectively turn the crusader state into a vassal or just mean more petty intrigues? Probably a combination of both, with plenty of potential for backstabbing, double crossings and shenanigans.

• What if Ivan Asen had moved on the Crusaders and expelled them from Constantinople after Klokonitsa?

Not sure whether he ever had the capabilities or interest to seize the city. Options include making himself Emperor or placing a puppet emperor on the throne and making Constantinople a vassal state like Epirus. Short term effects would include war with Hungary (as OTL) and Nicaea (OTL allied with Bulgaria until 1237) Material considerations and OTL events suggests this path might produced a short-lived Empire that wouldn't much outlast Ivan Asen.

• What if Theodore had not attacked Bulgaria?

Theodore kicks the crusaders out of the capital 30 years earlier, but presumably still has to deal with the Bulgarians (whom he doesn't trust) Nicaea (still going strong in Anatolia) and the Crusaders/Rome/Venice.

• Sultanate of Rūm supplants ERE?

Admittedly unlikely as the Seljuqs were declining and Nicaea strong, but I always wondered...





Note: besieging Constantinople is somewhat hard, so there's a good chance any scenario ends with a failed siege, unless the city falls to treachery or negotiations.