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US Loses in Spanish-American War

Polyphemus

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I feel like reversing the outcome of a war is pretty basic AH, but I can't recall seeing this particular question ever floated before.

Suppose Spain successfully defends its colonial holdings from the US- I don't pretend to be a military expert so I'm afraid I don't have a specific POD in mind. As this conflict in OTL was largely the point where the US emerged as a global power, what does this defeat do to change the perception of the US? Does this cause any changes to the delicate balance of power in Europe? Domestically, what happens in the American political sphere?
 
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By 1898, it's very hard for the US to actually lose conventionally. Their mobilization was a total mess (which was the impetus for the successful Root reform) and they still crushed the wearied wreck of the Spanish, especially at sea.

I can see them losing if an earlier US gets a little too Golden Circle and makes a grab for Cuba.
 
Perhaps if Spain had an alliance with a stronger power—perhaps Germany, maybe France—it could wage a successful defensive war? But then you need to explain what is in it for the stronger power.

Germany did do a little perfunctory saber-rattling at the beginning of tensions but nothing really came of it. Maybe a little added diplomatic pressure from European power, a few more banana peels in the already poor mobilization.
 
Have the war happen earlier. In the 1870s Spain would wind up dominating the east coast for a year

Had to some digging but this is what the America and Spanish navy looked like in 1873 during the Virginius affair.

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Now one ship stands out, that is the Spanish ironclad Arapiles:

Ordered as a wood-built screw steam frigate was she during the building at the shipyard of Green, Blackwall, England converted into a broadside ironclad. Laid down in June 1861, launched on 17 October 1864, completed in 18865, commissioned in 1868, hulked in 1879, mentioned as being in poor condition while her hull was not strong enough for the armour in 1882 and finally broken up in 1883/1884. The armour consisted of a heavy iron-made belt with a thickness of 11,4cm/4.5” and a battery protected by 10cm/3.9”. Displacement 5.500 (design)-5.700 (completed) tons, other sources claiming 3.441 long tons/3.496 tons and as dimensions 85,37 x 15,9-16,45 x 5,2 metres or 280.11 x 52.2 (design)-54 (after being armoured) x 17’feet. The horsepower of 100 nhp supplied by the one shaft Trunk steam engine and 6 boilers was to allow a designed speed of 12 knots. One funnel and with ship-rigging. The original armament consisted of 2-10" riflled muzzle loading guns, 5-8”rifled muzzle loading guns and 10-7’9? breech loading guns. Her crew numbered 537 men.

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She would have dominated anything the Americans could have send against them.
 
But why would America start a war in the 1870s? And for that matter the period in question was one where Spain was going through a series of civil wars.
There was a war scare with Spain over Cuba like every other month from 1850 to 1898.
Actually this could work out well for Spain in the long run, with the Spanish Navy being likely fairly dominant against America then it would cause the Provisional Democratic Government to unite against a common enemy (and could unify the country during a turbulent period).

Spain gaining some kind Constitutional Monarchy or Republic depending on who running the show in the 1870s would be interesting to see .
 
America getting thumped badly by Spain in the 1870s seems like a thing that makes America decide "we need a fuck-off great big navy so this never happens again" and desire for a rematch, how long can a more stable Spain keep naval parity (or at least at 'you'll win but you'll suffer for it' levels) going before it has to seek alliances with another nation?
 
Hmm, a Spanish-American War in the 1870s where Spain wins, -

In this case, Joan Prim would probably have his star on the rise, even under Amadeo and the (OTL First) Spanish Republic. The better idea, though, is to have Prim take his experience as Governor of Puerto Rico to heart and advocate for both reforms and increased autonomy for both Cuba and Puerto Rico within Spain - essentially what Madrid ultimately tried to set up during the 1890s until the Americans intervened IOTL. While this would be controversial among the Spanish political class, in this case it would be the right thing to do to take off some of the steam in the Cuban independence movement. (Of course, there would be Cubans not happy with the arrangement, so there would still be room for a *Ten Years' War > *Spanish-American War, but in the main most Cubans would be happy to finally get juridical personality as a self-governing region.)

That, however, is just one building block for the development of a new Spanish constitutional order, as the Glorious Revolution leads directly to the establishment of a Spanish Republic (so no Amadeo) organized along the lines of the United States and the new Comtean-positivist order, as a semi-presidential federal republic (the world's first, at this time) comprising Spain proper, Ceuta, Melilla, Cuba, and Puerto Rico - with the autonomy arrangements for Cuba and Puerto Rico serving as a precedent for the forming of Spain's new first-level administrative divisions. However, because of the presence of tradition and a need to bring conservatives on side, the government would be one that balances tradition and modernity - much like, IOTL, the bad old days of PRI rule in Mexico, but this time within a genuine multi-party democracy that is more genuine than the turno IOTL. A war where Spain wins would give additional credibility and legitimacy to the Republic. As Spain industrializes (and probably spreads out the benefits of industrialization more, so Cuba would be affected here), it could attract additional foreign investment, especially from the other major powers at the time - so Spain would be very much a relatively neutral power in Europe (not like Switzerland, but probably close enough). The United States is already heavily investing in Cuba around this period; France and Germany could additionally benefit from investing in Spain, since it has resources neither of those countries have even among their colonies. In this manner, not only would Spain be industrializing at a similar as Germany and Japan, but would also be in concert with the positivist experiments in Mexico and Brazil.
 
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