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Clinton wins in 2016: Who does she pick for SCOTUS?

Bolt451

Sometimes things that are expensive...are worse
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Quick one, sorry if this doesn't need its own thread but with the ruling about abortion in Texas (yes I know it was 5-4 not 6-3) I was wondering, lets say Clinton wins in 2016 and gets to appoint the same 3 vacancies ? and would who she she perhaps compromise on?

Its not impossible she doesnt get to replace RBG as the Republicans would be as obstructionist as they were for Merrick Garland under Obama.

BONUS ROUND!


Bernie wins in 2016. who does he pick? and who might be compromise picks?
 
I don't think Kenendy would have retired under Clinton. And yeah, there would have been a GOP wave in 2018 which would then have certainly blocked the appointment of a successor to Ginsburg.

I think she'd get the Scalia vacancy filled, though. I get a feeling she wouldn't keep Garland's nomination. If the Pennsylvania senate race goes the other way, which is possible in a ATL scenario, then she only needs to convince one other Republican to vote in favour on the floor.
 
I think that creates a Big Mess if not an outright constitutional crisis, given that that it sets up an explicit precedent of "the GOP will never allow a non-GOP president to appoint a justice" four years early and pre-Trump (and presumably after Trump's political career got tanked!)
 
I think that creates a Big Mess if not an outright constitutional crisis, given that that it sets up an explicit precedent of "the GOP will never allow a non-GOP president to appoint a justice" four years early and pre-Trump (and presumably after Trump's political career got tanked!)

When they did it in 2016 and then reversed in 2020, there weren't political consequences, so I'm not too sure.
 
When they did it in 2016 and then reversed in 2020, there weren't political consequences, so I'm not too sure.

I mean there's that kind of chichanery that relies on people having 0 memory and then there's immediate refusal (esp. if it 's like "no we're going to hold the seat open FOREVER")
 
I mean there's that kind of chichanery that relies on people having 0 memory and then there's immediate refusal (esp. if it 's like "no we're going to hold the seat open FOREVER")

I think at first McConnell would say "no hearings." This would work for awhile, I think. If, at some point, the pressure becomes too much and McConnell feels compelled to do hearings, I think the nomination gets voted down - again and again and again. The narrative becomes "it's President Clinton's responsibility to appoint a bipartisan, consensus choice who can win the votes of 60+ Senators." I truly, down to my bones, believe that in a Republican Senate no Democratic appointee will stand a chance. Especially with the replacement filling Scalia's seat.
 
I think at first McConnell would say "no hearings." This would work for awhile, I think. If, at some point, the pressure becomes too much and McConnell feels compelled to do hearings, I think the nomination gets voted down - again and again and again. The narrative becomes "it's President Clinton's responsibility to appoint a bipartisan, consensus choice who can win the votes of 60+ Senators." I truly, down to my bones, believe that in a Republican Senate no Democratic appointee will stand a chance. Especially with the replacement filling Scalia's seat.

I mean at a certain point that has to wear thin rationally but then again, this is Clinton and the media are just going be looking for every excuse to call her shrill, unreasonable, etc
 
but I think yea at that point if the senate just blocks everything unless an R is president we're well into constitutional crisis territory assuming no filibuster nuke for judicial nominees
 
but I think yea at that point if the senate just blocks everything unless an R is president we're well into constitutional crisis territory assuming no filibuster nuke for judicial nominees

It's so precedent-breaking and norm-shattering it's hard to imagine, but at the same time I don't think there's any evidence to believe anything else (other than, well it's always been done that way). Even McCain, who would come to be hailed as the moderate voice of reason in his final years as he turned on Trump, was saying don't fill the seat for four years. And when you try and do the math to get to 60, it's damn near impossible. Even if you grant the Democrats Collins, Graham, and Murkowski.... you just can't do it.

That said, Clinton may be able to flip the Senate, but if we are assuming minimal butterflies and a GOP Senate, I genuinely do not believe you'd see the seat filled. You can't find 10 Republicans willing to be the deciding vote to flip the Court to a 5-4 liberal majority
 
Absolutely seeing this as a major political crisis in America where the Supreme Court has a seat open and then another seat open and then three seats open if the Republicans refuse to accept anyone, and the longer this goes on the more obvious it will get - and then it all depends on where the American voters stand, and if that bothers them enough to shift enough votes in any places to actually get change.

This would backfire if Clinton (or Sanders) does ever manage to get a Senate majority under them or the filibuster's ended as a result, because then they don't need to try and do a compromise candidate.
 
but I think yea at that point if the senate just blocks everything unless an R is president we're well into constitutional crisis territory assuming no filibuster nuke for judicial nominees

I expect the only reason we aren't here right now is the razor thin D majority. Republicans aren't interested in a functional federal government so they see no issue with this.

A lot of people won't even notice the court has vacancies without the filter of the media spin on it, either. It's not like a debt ceiling crisis where people aren't getting paid.
 
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