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Taiwan has nukes in 1989

Firstly, you'd need to avert the revealing of the nuclear project to the USA. And from what I understand, that occured when Chang Hsien-yi, Deputy Director of INER, defected to them in December 1987 - he had apparently been in contact with the CIA for the past decade. So you'd need to find some way of stopping him from getting those papers to America; either have him decide against it (& continue to do so until it became official), or have him be stopped before he can do so.

Admittedly, this is from a readthrough of the relevant Wikipedia pages as a starting point, but there is a BBC article about him with a bit more context & information from 2017.
 
Firstly, you'd need to avert the revealing of the nuclear project to the USA. And from what I understand, that occured when Chang Hsien-yi, Deputy Director of INER, defected to them in December 1987 - he had apparently been in contact with the CIA for the past decade. So you'd need to find some way of stopping him from getting those papers to America; either have him decide against it (& continue to do so until it became official), or have him be stopped before he can do so.

Admittedly, this is from a readthrough of the relevant Wikipedia pages as a starting point, but there is a BBC article about him with a bit more context & information from 2017.

I already knew about that spy, though not about all those details.
Regardless, if Taiwan had nukes, do you think they would have eventually declared independence? If so, would the UN accept them as a member?
 
A nuclear deployment in 1989 would come at a very strange time for Taiwan, if political developments still largely occur as OTL. Over in the Mainland, Tiananmen Square would occur in the same year, and the Wild Lily movement is a year away. Lee Teng-hui would be still relatively fresh in office, with the Mainland faction in the KMT still plotting to remove him. This bloc included Chief of the General Staff Hau Pei-tsun and Soong Mei-ling, among others, who were key figures in the decision to carry out nuclear proliferation, so it would not be amiss to suggest they could use the weapons as leverage against Lee in some capacity. On the other hand, it would not be unexpected if the student movement were to include de-nuclearisation as part of its program. Lee himself didn't seem inherently opposed to nuclear weapons development, so I don't see a reason he would pull the plug without substantial internal or external pressure.
 
A nuclear deployment in 1989 would come at a very strange time for Taiwan, if political developments still largely occur as OTL. Over in the Mainland, Tiananmen Square would occur in the same year, and the Wild Lily movement is a year away. Lee Teng-hui would be still relatively fresh in office, with the Mainland faction in the KMT still plotting to remove him. This bloc included Chief of the General Staff Hau Pei-tsun and Soong Mei-ling, among others, who were key figures in the decision to carry out nuclear proliferation, so it would not be amiss to suggest they could use the weapons as leverage against Lee in some capacity. On the other hand, it would not be unexpected if the student movement were to include de-nuclearisation as part of its program. Lee himself didn't seem inherently opposed to nuclear weapons development, so I don't see a reason he would pull the plug without substantial internal or external pressure.

I could see Lee trading away nukes to keep himself in office, like iirc the mainland faction had massive support in the military, like the military itself saw itself as like army of the KMT and by extension China or at least like their take on china. it could become like post apartheid SA in terms of relinquishing the atom, and a "fun" factoid.
 
I could see Lee trading away nukes to keep himself in office, like iirc the mainland faction had massive support in the military, like the military itself saw itself as like army of the KMT and by extension China or at least like their take on china. it could become like post apartheid SA in terms of relinquishing the atom, and a "fun" factoid.

I don't see Taiwan giving up its nukes, as they would be strongest possible deterrent to China.
Regardless, everyone here is ignoring an important question: With nukes deterring China, would Taiwan eventually declare independence?
 
I don't see Taiwan giving up its nukes, as they would be strongest possible deterrent to China.
Regardless, everyone here is ignoring an important question: With nukes deterring China, would Taiwan eventually declare independence?

I see no more reason they would with a nuclear deterrent. The domestic consensus of the 1980s and 90s generally accepted that Taiwan was a sovereign nation as the Republic of China, and localisation was, in the view of Lee and his faction in the KMT, not a move towards independence, but to adapting governance and culture to local customs, though the Mainland faction would think otherwise. Suffice it to say that if a declaration of independence was considered unnecessary when the PLA started lobbing ballistic missiles off the coast in the mid-90s, having nuclear weapons probably will not either.
 
I see no more reason they would with a nuclear deterrent. The domestic consensus of the 1980s and 90s generally accepted that Taiwan was a sovereign nation as the Republic of China, and localisation was, in the view of Lee and his faction in the KMT, not a move towards independence, but to adapting governance and culture to local customs, though the Mainland faction would think otherwise. Suffice it to say that if a declaration of independence was considered unnecessary when the PLA started lobbing ballistic missiles off the coast in the mid-90s, having nuclear weapons probably will not either.

Which suggests the bigger impact would probably be Taiwan-with-Nukes into the 2000s and 2010s - the potential issue of how to deal with North Korea's weapons programme if Taiwan's gotten away with it, whether Beijing will have to tread lighter around things, whether this encourages pro-independence sentiment or makes that faction seem reckless.
 
I can't really see China reacting well to this, especially not right after/during Tiananmen Square. Taiwan being officially independent seems to be taken as an existential threat by the Communist Party, this would move that closer and mean Taiwan could potentially reduce Beijing to a smoking crater, rather than having to fight defensively.
 
I can't really see China reacting well to this, especially not right after/during Tiananmen Square. Taiwan being officially independent seems to be taken as an existential threat by the Communist Party, this would move that closer and mean Taiwan could potentially reduce Beijing to a smoking crater, rather than having to fight defensively.

Yeah, like the third taiwan strait crisis accelerated PLA modernization mayhaps by 93 they try and braindrain out the Soviet MIC people or at the very least try to have spies in taiwan in their nuclear facilities? IIRC one of the reasons the US refuse to sell taiwan f-35s is like the fear of spies sending stuff to Beijing.
 
I can't really see China reacting well to this, especially not right after/during Tiananmen Square. Taiwan being officially independent seems to be taken as an existential threat by the Communist Party, this would move that closer and mean Taiwan could potentially reduce Beijing to a smoking crater, rather than having to fight defensively.

Indeed, China would be very angry but they couldn't do anything about it unless they were willing to lose several major cities.
 
Indeed, China would be very angry but they couldn't do anything about it unless they were willing to lose several major cities.
TBH I don't think either side wants to escalate that much, since it would destroy investments on the mainland and turn taiwan into radioactive rubble. Like the DPP's whole thing right now is like we are de-facto independent so why risk war?
 
In view of recent events, I'd like to revive this thread.
I see no more reason they would with a nuclear deterrent. The domestic consensus of the 1980s and 90s generally accepted that Taiwan was a sovereign nation as the Republic of China, and localisation was, in the view of Lee and his faction in the KMT, not a move towards independence, but to adapting governance and culture to local customs, though the Mainland faction would think otherwise. Suffice it to say that if a declaration of independence was considered unnecessary when the PLA started lobbing ballistic missiles off the coast in the mid-90s, having nuclear weapons probably will not either.
With nukes, though, Taiwan is assured that a declaration of independence won't lead to an invasion.
TBH I don't think either side wants to escalate that much, since it would destroy investments on the mainland and turn taiwan into radioactive rubble. Like the DPP's whole thing right now is like we are de-facto independent so why risk war?
I meant China's reaction to Taiwan developing nukes. Regardless, with nukes, Taiwan is assured there won't be a war even if it declares independence.

Which suggests the bigger impact would probably be Taiwan-with-Nukes into the 2000s and 2010s - the potential issue of how to deal with North Korea's weapons programme if Taiwan's gotten away with it, whether Beijing will have to tread lighter around things, whether this encourages pro-independence sentiment or makes that faction seem reckless.
I definitely think it would encourage a declaration of independence.
 
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What if, at some point, Taiwan declares independence and applies for UN membership?

UN probably rejects it. Low possibility of nuclear war, medium to high possibility of a conventional one. China can't take Taiwan but it can certainly make it rather uncomfortable and its baked into their relations for the last several decades that an independent Taiwan is an existential threat so they'll probably be willing to stomach the pain.

World is a rather different place with East Asia a major warzone in the nineties or early 2000s a lot less growth, Asian Financial crash could be worse or 2008 could come early.
 
UN probably rejects it. Low possibility of nuclear war, medium to high possibility of a conventional one. China can't take Taiwan but it can certainly make it rather uncomfortable and its baked into their relations for the last several decades that an independent Taiwan is an existential threat so they'll probably be willing to stomach the pain.

World is a rather different place with East Asia a major warzone in the nineties or early 2000s a lot less growth, Asian Financial crash could be worse or 2008 could come early.

I have been told that at this point China was more economically dependent on Taiwan than the other way around.
 
I have seen it argued that even without nukes, Taiwan could have gotten away with a declaration of independence in 1989 following the Tiananmen massacre because of how angry much of the world was at China.
What if, following the Tiananmen massacre, Taiwan reveals it has nukes, declares independence and applies for UN membership? Considering how angry much of the world was at China, would the UN accept Taiwan?
 
In view of recent events, I am reviving this old thread.

Sino-Soviet rapprochement was already underway in 1989 and would likely be accelerated by this. It's hard to say what effect this would have on the USSR between 1989-1991, but presuming it still collapses you could have the formation of a Sino-Russian Bloc become a thing in the 1990s, a generation earlier than OTL.
 
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