AHC/WI: Muslim Balkans

[lerk]

How could the Ottomans have been more successful in Islamizing (>75%) the Balkan areas? Going as far as Romania and Croatia may be a bit implausible but I think that OTL modern day Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, and the non-Muslim areas of Bosnia are doable. Furthermore, what would be the impacts of such a thing occurring?

 

[raharris1973]

Going as far as Romania and Croatia may be a bit implausible

I don't see why not. Northeastern Bulgaria and Dobruja were more Islamic that southern in the 19th century than southern and western Bulgaria. Bosnia, right next to Croatia, was more Islamic than core Serbia to its east or Macedonia to its southeast.

Only reasons against would be most of the time Romanian lands were vassal principalities (with Christian princes) rather than directly ruled, and Croatia was under Ottomans a much shorter time.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Bosnia was about 40% Muslim in the late 19th century already. Bulgaria was probably a little over half Muslim before the Russo-Turkish War. If the Ottomans didn't lose these territories and they remained the core of an industrializing Ottoman Empire, migration from elsewhere to urban areas of this region would make them over 75% muslim.

 

[raharris1973]

Bosnia was about 40% Muslim in the late 19th century already. Bulgaria was probably a little over half Muslim before the Russo-Turkish War. If the Ottomans didn't lose these territories and they remained the core of an industrializing Ottoman Empire, migration from elsewhere to urban areas of this region would make them over 75% muslim.

Good point about industrialization over the longer term attracting Muslim migration into the Balkan provinces.

Another method that could increase the Muslim proportion of population in the Balkan population over time could be greater relative tendency of Catholic and Orthodox Christian residents in the Balkans to migrate, which I believe was heightened whenever the Christian exemption from conscription was ended. So it would seem natural if the empire held onto the lands longer. Or if Ottoman conscription had been imposed earlier, without religious exemption, spurring earlier migration to evade military service.

 

[Ricardolindo]

How could the Ottomans have been more successful in Islamizing (>75%) the Balkan areas? Going as far as Romania and Croatia may be a bit implausible but I think that OTL modern day Greece, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, and the non-Muslim areas of Bosnia are doable. Furthermore, what would be the impacts of such a thing occurring?

I don't see why not. Northeastern Bulgaria and Dobruja were more Islamic that southern in the 19th century than southern and western Bulgaria. Bosnia, right next to Croatia, was more Islamic than core Serbia to its east or Macedonia to its southeast.

Only reasons against would be most of the time Romanian lands were vassal principalities (with Christian princes) rather than directly ruled, and Croatia was under Ottomans a much shorter time.

Slavonia and Lika were Muslim majority before the Habsburgs retook them. If the Ottomans kept them, they would remain so.

 

[raharris1973]

One way to get this result might be if you had a more brutal Muscovite/Russian imperial policy towards conquered Muslims compared with OTL. For example, if Catherine the Great implements a major expulsion of the Crimean Tatar nobility and population upon annexing the land in 1783, and maybe goes even further including many Volga Tatars and Bashkirs she might have anger or distrust against due to many of their number being associated with the Pugachev rebellion in the recent past. If expelled from Russia/Novorossiya, the most logical and nearest Muslim ruled destination, whose rulers can plausibly provide protection are the Ottoman rulers of the Danubian provinces of Moldavia and Wallachia.

 

[Hendryk]

Relevant to the topic, I came across this AH map on Reddit (original artist: arlinconio), showing a Turkic/Tatar state on the Western shore of the Black Sea. There doesn't seem to be any lore to go with it, but it's an interesting idea.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Relevant to the topic, I came across this AH map on Reddit (original artist: arlinconio), showing a Turkic/Tatar state on the Western shore of the Black Sea. There doesn't seem to be any lore to go with it, but it's an interesting idea.

Dobruja was majority Muslim but it was sparsely populated.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Bosnia was about 40% Muslim in the late 19th century already. Bulgaria was probably a little over half Muslim before the Russo-Turkish War. If the Ottomans didn't lose these territories and they remained the core of an industrializing Ottoman Empire, migration from elsewhere to urban areas of this region would make them over 75% muslim.

Bosnia actually had a Muslim majority in the 17th century and possibly in the 18th century but lost its Muslim majority by 1800 because of warfare and plagues.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Bosnia was about 40% Muslim in the late 19th century already. Bulgaria was probably a little over half Muslim before the Russo-Turkish War. If the Ottomans didn't lose these territories and they remained the core of an industrializing Ottoman Empire, migration from elsewhere to urban areas of this region would make them over 75% muslim.

I think Bulgaria being majority Muslim before the 1877-78 Russo-Turkish War is too high, I think it was around 40%.