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Meppo's Electoral Molehill

reposting the thing here because of the Sinema dilemma

Rodina vs. the State of Arizona

Of all Russian statesmen, none had so much to say about the grisly murder of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) as did Aleksei Zhuravlyov, a far-right State Duma deputy and long-time ally of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin who regularly appears on state TV show 60 Minutes. It was no surprise, seeing as Zhuravlyov had threatened the late Congressman eight years before on live TV, even suggesting that Gallego could end up "ice-axed to death" in a profanity-laden rant that turned out to be remarkably prescient.

Dismissing claims that he or the Kremlin had any involvement straight away, Zhuravlyov seemed to find it difficult not to gloat as he talked about Gallego's death. "Honestly speaking, I don't get why they're making such a big deal out of that bastard's demise. He went down there [to Peoria] to fight against so-called 'far-right militants', and he got killed. He got what he deserved, yes, but we were absolutely not involved! As usual, the cronies of the Washington regime try to weave Russia into this, they mention some made-up Wagnerites— who's to say it wasn't set up by some rival of his?"

"Kyrsten Sinema," Skabeyeva helpfully chimed in, "She lost in 2024 because of Gallego, and both of them reportedly planned to run this year." Zhuravlyov grew more profane and homophobic as he repeated himself: "Yes, Sinema! Who's to say that this [slur] didn't want to make sure he couldn't run? Look at all those stickers with her name! And these [obscenity] say we're on the verge of collapse!"

60 Minutes's permanent co-hosts Evgeny Popov and Olga Skabeyeva continued to egg on Zhuravlyov as they moved to discuss the ongoing armed insurgency in the U.S. South in general, as ex-"spy" and ex-lawmaker Maria Butina referred to the most recent attack on the Arizona State Capitol as "the beginning of a Second American Revolution" and "a reckoning" for the impeachment of "legitimate governor" Kari Lake.


— from Daily Beast article "Kremlin Crony Denies That Murder of U.S. Congressman Was A Birthday Present", published on July 4, 2029

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rather inspired by @Kaiser Julius

1977 - 1981: James E. Carter ✞ / Walter F. Mondale (Democratic)
'76 def. Gerald Ford / Robert J. Dole (Republican)
'80 def. Ronald W. Reagan / Jack F. Kemp (Republican), John B. Anderson / Patrick J. Lucey (Independent)
1981: Walter F. Mondale / vacant (Democratic)
1981 - 1985: Walter F. Mondale / Maurice E. "Moon" Landrieu (Democratic)
1985 - 1989: Walter F. Mondale / Dianne Feinstein (Democratic)

'84 def. George H. W. Bush / Richard L. Thornburgh (Republican), Ronald E. Paul / Robert L. Livingston (Populist)
1989 - 1993: Dianne Feinstein / Joseph R. Biden (Democratic)
'88 def. Lewis Lehrman / Jake Garn (Republican)
1993 - 2001: Robert Martinez / Terry E. Branstad (Republican)
'92 def. Dianne Feinstein / Joseph R. Biden (Democratic), Ralph Nader / Roberto A. Mondragón (Green), Patrick J. Buchanan / Samuel Steiger (Populist)
'96 def. Warren Beatty / Howard E. Wolpe (Democratic)
 
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Viktoriya Kulheyko (Ukrainian: Вікторія Кульгейко; born 6 October 1978) is a Ukrainian businesswoman, lawyer and politician who has been serving as Minister of Justice since June 2021. A member of the National Hromada, she has been a deputy of the Tsentralna Rada representing Kozelets — Nizhyn since 2017.

Born in Nosivka, Kulheyko attended the Kyiv National Economic University and the University of Cologne, earning a Doctor of Law degree from the latter. She worked in a law firm in Chernihiv before working as a political aide for Oleh Liashko and Valery Kulich. Following the 2017 general election and appointment of Oleh Liashko as Prime Minister, Kulheyko served as chairwoman of the Rada committee on legal policy from 2019 to 2020, and was chair of the Hromada's German—Ukrainian working group. She was noted as a close political ally of Liashko by media, having been previously recommended for the party's 2017 "Radical Renovation" list of prospective parliamentary candidates; she also attracted attention for her socially conservative stances.

In the June 2021 reshuffle, Kulheyko was appointed Minister of the Interior, replacing Pavlo Zhebrivskyi. In this role, Kulheyko worked to improve relations with Germany, the United States of America and Kuban, signing an asylum plan with the latter to address migrant crossings and human trafficking in the Black Sea. She has also been involved in a scandal over her treatment of staffers, in addition to conflicts with left-wing student organizations in Kyiv and eastern Ukraine.
 
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no Louisiana purchase

1801 - 1805: Charles C. Pinckney (Federalist)
1800 (with Thomas Jefferson) def. Thomas Jefferson (Republican), John Adams (Federalist), Aaron Burr (Republican), John Jay (Republican)
1805 - 1807: Thomas Jefferson (Republican)
1804 (with George Clinton) def. Charles C. Pinckney / Rufus King (Federalist)
1807 - 1809: George Clinton (Republican)
1809 - 1817: James Madison (Republican)
1808 (with John Langdon) def. Charles C. Pinckney / Timothy Pickering (Federalist), George Clinton / James Monroe ('Independent' Republican)
1812 (with Elbridge Gerry) def. Alexander Hamilton / Henry Lee III (Federalist)
1812 - 1815: Louisiana War - Stalemate, independence of the Federation of New France
1817 - 1825: Morgan Lewis (Federalist)
1816 (with Levin Winder) def. William H. Crawford / Daniel D. Tompkins ('Caucus' Republican), John Randolph / Solomon Southwick ('Yeoman' Republican)
1820 (with Bushrod Washington) def. James Monroe / Simon Snyder (Republican)
1825 - 1829: James Barbour (Federalist)
1824 (with John Quincy Adams) def. Andrew Jackson / Nathan Sanford ('Nationalist' Republican), William H. Crawford / Albert Gallatin ('Caucus' Republican)
1829 - 1835: Andrew Jackson (Republican)
1828 (with John C. Calhoun) def. James Barbour / John Quincy Adams (Federalist)
1832 (with Edward Livingston) def. James Barbour / John Sergeant (Federalist)
1832 - 1835: Second Anglo-American War - British victory
1835 - 1837: Edward Livingston (Republican)
1837 - 1841: Newton Cannon (Federalist)
1836 (with Daniel Webster) def. Hugh L. White / Robert P. Dunlap (Republican), John C. Calhoun / James B. Ray (Anti-Masonic)
 
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Governors of the U.S. State of Kanawha since 1991

1991 - 1993: R. Charles Cummings (Independent)
1993 - 1995: Joseph Manchin (Independent)
1992 def. unopposed
1995 - 2002: Joseph Manchin (Home Alliance)
1996 def. Glen Gainer (Socialist), Oliver Luck (New Democratic)
2000 def. Glen Gainer (Socialist), Jim Traficant (New Democratic)
2002 - 2020: Joseph Manchin (United America)
2004 def. Carol Miller (Socialist)
2008 - Reinstated by the State Legislature; election not held per moratorium introduced by President Dale Brown
2012 def. Tina Pickett (New Democratic), David Moran (AIP)
2016 def. Trey Hollingsworth (New Democratic), Joshua Booth (Socialist), others
2020 - Massive fire at Charleston Center Mall kills 60 people; Joseph Manchin submits resignation to President Dale Brown, is subsequently appointed to the Senate by the State Legislature
2020 - 2021: Steve Castor (United America)
2021 - present: Mike Harmon (United America)
'20 def. Ryan Ferns (Socialist), Matt Miller (New Democratic)

BA3026 - Socialist
23238E - Home Alliance
 
very shallow, very quick scenario mostly inspired by @allthepresidentsmen and @Blackentheborg that is supposed to be very generic

State of the Third Smuta, c. 2032
July 2032. Ten years since the sudden and mysterious death of Vladimir Putin, who molded Russian society and politics in his view. Five years since the failed coup attempt in Ukraine, which left behind a dead President, angry soldiers on both sides and massacres in Donbas and Kherson. Two years since the assassination of President Patrushev, the last remaining compromise candidate within the Putinist cesspool, and vicious post-election riots amidst economic troubles.

- Tsaritsyn Government ("Russian State", "Army of the Black Hundreds"): Konstantin Malofeyev (Tsargrad)
Increasingly finding pushed out of Ivanovo and Samara Oblasts, which - after the first shock-and-awe operations in 2031 - has come as an unpleasant surprise to the Regent, whose mental and physical health has increasingly seen better days. The Black Hundreds' generals are under pressure to strike back immediately, even as their attempts to batter down the Feds' defenses along the Volga are distracting precious attention from Ukrainian and Azerbaijani "humanitarian efforts" along the border. The state pogroms being enacted against "deviants", Circassians and suspected VSU operatives aren't helping at all.

All-Russian Federal Front ("The Feds")
Technically should be considered a single faction, but its nature as a de facto alliance of opposition forces and regional Putinists opposed to Malofeyev makes this tentative; they're primarily based in the Northwest and the Urals.
- St. Petersburg Government: Daniil Yegorov (All-Russian People's Front)
Not the youngest nor the most charismatic member of the Russian government before or after 2030, Yegorov has faced difficulties with energizing the Front's supporters. His best qualities include having a good grasp of English and having a background that's palatable to the establishment in Brussels and Washington D.C. (and God knows he's been phoning them almost weekly), and that simultaneously served as a boon to the propaganda coming out of Tsaritsyn... at least until the siege of Moscow happened.
- Novosibirsk Oblast: Dmitry Savelyev (All-Russian People's Front)
Despite suspected nationalist leanings and a very tenuous relationship with the local opposition - most prominently represented by libertarian and Navalny stalwart Sergei Boiko - Savelyev has been exceedingly helpful in securing the oblast for Yegorov, though his extreme closeness to the Azerbaijani government makes people wonder.
- Yekaterinburg Oblast: Yevgeny Roizman (Independent)
Humanitarian efforts to bring aid to Yekaterinburg and surrounding oblasts have made Roizman the de facto leader of the Urals and one of the most popular politicians in Russia, more so than any All-Russian People's Front leader. At the ripe old age of 70, Roizman has secured agreements between Front members in the Urals, kept drugs out of Yekaterinburg, and secured relative normalcy for the newly-renamed oblast — which has made the place once called "the City of Devils" a key target for Malofeyev and co.
- People's Freedom Front: Isabel Magkoeva | Denis Parfyonov | Nikolai Kasyan (collective leadership)
Y'know, these guys used to have a department focused on electoral politics as well, but half of Moscow being bathed in fire by Malofeyev and co. has made their radicalization and shift to partisan activity full and permanent. On the other hand, a lot of Muscovites currently residing in Syktyvkar will likely vote for them regardless of who's on the ballot in 2036.
also Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Mordovia and Tyumen are kinda relevant I guess

Secessionist States
- Republic of Buryatia: Bair Tsyrenov (Communist)
Has maintained a degree of stability and a more-or-less civil political system between Garmazhapova's New Democrats and Tsyrenov's Communists, despite the increasing presence of PLA "consultants" and Shanghai-born businessmen backing the latter, frequent forest fires, and ethnic tension partly inflamed by Tsargrad agents. This state of affairs might not last for too long.
- Republic of Chechnya: Adam Osmayev (Chechen National Congress)
In the process of cleaning out Kadyrovite holdouts down south. To their credit, a lot of Ramzan's sons and relatives have been willing to leak crucial info on their own kin's operations, but most Kadyrovite lieutenants being aware that there's a 90% chance of them being killed or imprisoned for life has made large-scale operations difficult, as have increased clashes with Ingushes, Ossetians and Baku.
- Far Eastern Republic: Nikita Kozhemyako (Far Eastern Democratic)
Technically Acting President, the son of Vladivostok's very own businessman with criminal connections-turned-multiregional governor once again showed up to clarify that the presidential elections - and the expected ascension of Anton Furgal, after his father fell comatose - will be held any day now. The "security problem" in Zabaikalye is still being fought to no avail, though the PLA units in Blagoveshchensk have promised to help out.
- Republic of Sakha — Yakutia: Arsen Tomsky (Independent)
The largest and the wealthiest of the breakaway states in Siberia, Sakha made their decision to assert their independence clear when it seemed Krasnoyarsk was to be controlled by Malofeyev's men. A lot of money from inDriver's operations in Bogota, Cairo and Shanghai is supporting Sakha's growing economy, as is the arrival of American and East Asian investors; the remoteness of St. Petersburg compared to Washington D.C.'s finances (and men) makes Sakha's future relationship to Russia proper rather dubious.
- Republic of Tuva: Eres Kara-sal (New Tuva)
Rather less stable than Buryatia - the overall crime and economic situation fairly appalling even before the Smuta - but Kara-sal remains just popular enough that he continues to receive backing from the local elites, and aid from Mongolia and China remains steady.
 
barebones list ideas

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1998 – 2000: Sergei Stepashin (Yabloko)
2000 – 2008: Yury Luzhkov (Fatherland – All Russia)
2000 def. Gennady Zyuganov (CPRF), Sergei Stepashin (Yabloko – People's List), Aman Tuleyev (Independent), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
2004 def. Irina Khakamada (Independent), Nikolai Kharitonov (CPRF), Oleg Malyshkin (LDPR)
2008 – 2012: Georgy Boos (Fatherland – All Russia)
2008 def. Gennady Gudkov (People's Republican), Gennady Zyuganov (CPRF), Grigory Yavlinsky (Yabloko), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
2012 – 2020: Gennady Gudkov (People's Republican)
2012 def. Georgy Boos (Fatherland – All Russia), Nikolai Gubenko (CPRF), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
2016 def. Anita Tsoi (Fatherland – All Russia), Oleg Mitvol (Green Alliance)
2020 – present: Yevgeny Primakov Jr. (Fatherland – All Russia)
2020 def. Ilya Ponomaryov (People's Republican), Maksim Suraikin (CPRF)

2000 – 2011: Aleksandr Lebed (National Republican – Third Force)
2000 def. Gennady Zyuganov (CPRF), Grigory Yavlinsky (Yabloko), Konstantin Titov (Union of Right Forces), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
2004 def. Pyotr Romanov (CPRF), Irina Khakamada (Independent), Vyacheslav Marychev (Independent), Oleg Malyshkin (LDPR)
2006 constitutional vote: 73% YES, 27% NO
2010 def. Vladimir Bukovsky (People's Choice), Pyotr Romanov (CPRF), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
2011: Sergei Glazyev (National Republican – Third Force)
2011: Gennady Seleznyov (Independent)
2011 – 2016: Valery Zubov (Social Democratic)
2011 def. Alexander Nevzorov (Union of Right Forces), Alexander Khloponin (Independent), Viktor Cherepkov (People's Choice)
2016 – present: Andrei Vorobyov (Patriotic Democratic)
2016 def. Vladimir Ryzhkov (Social Democratic)
 
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Interesting stuff, is this a, No Putin series of scenarios etc.

More or less (assume he stays a local politician in St. Petersburg and is tried for corruption at some point or dies in Dresden)

I had this idea for a series of lists based around the 15 most populous cities in Russia and notable names connected to them in one way or another. Hence Lebed vs. Zubov and the Luzhkov list. The latter one was pretty easy, as both Luzhkov and his partner Primakov were considered frontrunners in 2000. Yevgeny Yasin once said that - despite Primakov's heavier weight as a political figure - Luzhkov was the more charismatic of the two and had a good chance to win in 2000 had he run. I believe Luzhkov wouldn't be fundamentally different from OTL 2000s Putin in ideology or approach, but he almost certainly had a different image, and that could impact his presidency and his team's career considerably.

Huh, fascinating fella, he seems like one of the few to actually try and bumblingly be a Social Democrat in Post Soviet Russia.

yep
 
I believe Luzhkov wouldn't be fundamentally different from OTL 2000s Putin in ideology or approach, but he almost certainly had a different image, and that could impact his presidency and his team's career considerably.
It’s interesting, given he’s older as well he can’t do the ‘I guess I’ll keep going’ stuff that Putin is doing.

I like that in your scenarios that opposition forces can raise to takeover. It makes sense in Luzhkov, he probably doesn’t have as tight as a grip or any of the Menedenv shenanigans that occurred, which gives space for a more Populist character like Gudkov to emerge in time.


Also I do enjoy Lebed scenarios that don’t become, and then he rules as an autocrat till the end of time because I don’t think he could do that given how tenuous his coalition is.
 
I believe Luzhkov wouldn't be fundamentally different from OTL 2000s Putin in ideology or approach, but he almost certainly had a different image, and that could impact his presidency and his team's career considerably.
If you ignore the impact of butterflies, I wonder how other possible Russian leaders would have handled the Kursk disaster and the Moscow theatre siege - those are the two defining stories from early 2000s Russia I always think of (though presumably because they were the two most reported here, not necessarily seen that way there).
 
1998 – 2000: Sergei Stepashin (Yabloko)
Does Yeltsin die or get impeached?
Nikolai Kharitonov (CPRF),
What makes the CPRF fall to third?
Yevgeny Primakov Jr.
I imagine the west would be concerned about an OTL Z fanatic winning, especially given that Russia seems to be a stable democracy
2000 def. Gennady Zyuganov (CPRF), Grigory Yavlinsky (Yabloko), Konstantin Titov (Union of Right Forces), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
Does Lebed force Primakov, Luzhov, et al. out of the race?
2010 def. Vladimir Bukovsky (People's Choice), Pyotr Romanov (CPRF), Mikhail Prokhorov (Independent), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
Is this a Zimbabwe 2008 scenario?
2011: Sergei Glazyev (National Republican – Third Force)
2011: Gennady Seleznyov (Independent)
2011 – 2016: Valery Zubov (Social Democratic)
Strong Arab Spring vibes here
 
Does Yeltsin die or get impeached?

Heart failure

What makes the CPRF fall to third?

Khakamada emerges as a somewhat vocal critic of the Luzhkov admin and a compromise candidate between Yabloko and a significant part of the old Yeltsin admin while also receiving substantial financial backing from Aleksandr Lebedev among others, while Kharitonov is an uncharismatic candidate in all.

I imagine the west would be concerned about an OTL Z fanatic winning, especially given that Russia seems to be a stable democracy

Fatherland – All Russia does experience a rightward shift in the 2010s after Boos loses and Team Baturin Luzhkov's grasp over the party weakens

Is this a Zimbabwe 2008 scenario?

In a sense, but Bukovsky gets arrested midway into the election over (supposedly planted) images of child porn

Does Lebed force Primakov, Luzhov, et al. out of the race?

Luzhkov and Primakov decide against running, while a part of Yeltsin's administration settles on Lebed as a candidate.

Strong Arab Spring vibes here

Exactly what I was aiming for
 
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2017 – 2025: Phil Scott (Republican)
'16 def. Sue Milner (Democratic), Bill Lee (Liberty Union)
'18 def. Christine Hallquist (Democratic)
'20 def. David Zuckerman (Progressive [endorsed by Democratic])
'22 def. Susan Hatch Davis (Progressive), Brenda Siegel (Democratic)
2025 – present: Liam Madden (Republican)
'24 def. Miro Weinberger (Democratic), Anne Watson (Progressive), Trevor Barlow (Independent)
'26 [endorsed by Progressive] def. Molly Gray (Democratic), Trevor Barlow (Independent)
2017 – 2021: David Zuckerman (Progressive / Democratic)
2021 – 2023: Molly Gray (Democratic)
2023 – 2024: David Zuckerman (Progressive / Democratic)
2024 – 2025: vacant
2025 – present: Tim Ashe (Democratic / Progressive)

2007 – 2025: Bernie Sanders (Independent)
2025 – present: Tanya Vyhovsky (Progressive)
 
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taking some inspiration from @Blackentheborg and @Wolfram

1961 – 1966: John F. Kennedy (Democratic)
'60 (with Lyndon B. Johnson) def. Richard Nixon / Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (Republican), Harry F. Byrd Sr. / various (Democratic, unpledged electors)
'64 (with Terry Sanford) def. Barry Goldwater / William Miller (Republican)
'66 - committed suicide
1966 – 1969: Terry Sanford (Democratic)
1969 – 1974: Ronald Reagan (Republican)
'68 (with Warren Knowles) def. Terry Sanford / Birch Bayh (Democratic), George Wallace / Curtis LeMay (American Independent)
'72 (with Warren Knowles) def. Harold Hughes / Walter Flowers (Democratic)
'74 - resigned following scandal
1974 – 1977: Warren Knowles (Republican)
1977 – 1981: Ed Muskie (Democratic)
'76 (with Charlie Wilson) def. Warren Knowles / George Bush (Republican), Anita Bryant / Bill French (American Independent), Tom McCall / Pete McCloskey (Liberal)
1981 – 1985: Phil Crane (Republican)
'80 (with John J. Rhodes) def. Ed Muskie / Charlie Wilson (Democratic), Larry Pressler / Jerome Waldie (Independent)
1985 – 1993: Dennis Kucinich (Democratic)
'84 (with Sam Nunn) def. Phil Crane / John J. Rhodes (Republican)
'88 (with Sam Nunn) def. Jerry Denton / Pete Domenici (Republican), John B. Anderson / Sherry Huber (Reform)
1993 - present: Mike Curb (Republican)
'92 (with Dick Thornburgh) def. Wallace Wilkinson / Elizabeth Holtzman (Democratic), Pat Robertson / Mildred Jefferson (Constitution), Ernie Chambers / various (Reform)
 
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