This was the thread that convinced me to get SLP, since someone linked me it and it pained me that I couldn't respond right away. One of my old timelines was a Kerry '04 victory, the Dethroning of Dubya (since then I've gravitated more towards the fascinating Howard Dean, so "Kerry's Choice" is back on the backburner forevermore).
Just a random AH scenario, initially sparked by reading up on Gary Hart due to FAM, and noting the friendship between him and Kerry. Not looking to go utopian with it, only wanted to explore the possible results.
Fun fact, Gary Hart was considering a 2004 presidential run. Don't know if Kerry talked him out of it, though
Every Day is Extra does mention one presidential hopeful that I will mention later.
Some starting points:
What would've had to change for Kerry to win? Bush gained the WH with 35 EC votes instead of 2000's 5, and his PV margin was larger in '04, so which would be easier to shift to the Dems? (Current very rough idea is Kerry winning Arizona, Iowa and New Mexico)
Honestly, the '04 race was super close. Others have mentioned the planned walk-out from the DOJ and some of the FBI over the unconstitutionality of the TSP--Cheney and co. wanted to continue it, whereas the senior officials of the DOJ thought it was incredibly illegal and wrote letters of resignation. Would've rivaled the Saturday Night Massacre.
But even then, you don't need to completely dismantle the Bush Administration in a massive walk-out to get Kerry the win. You just need the Kerry campaign to run slightly,
slightly more competently. Not to say that Kerry responded incompetently to the SBVT (contrary to popular belief, Kerry actually did a lot to fight those claims--in
Every Day is Extra, he specifically blames the talking heads for ignoring the naval record that he allowed the DOD to publish, since that only circulated in the newspapers and news
channels are a different beast entirely). Get a muzzle for Edwards so he doesn't bring up Dick Cheney's lesbian daughter in the VP debates, which avoids Kerry's mention of it (J.E. Smith's
Bush mentions that these moments were integral in such a tight race--"the Lesbian Bump").
Other good PODs involve Cheney refusing to run for a second term (he very nearly got away with it. Bush called him back in, though--Bush was vetting Frist for the slot). Without Cheney, Rumsfeld would resign after the Abu Ghraib photos were revealed to the public. Hell, another POD would be getting Rumsfeld to resign anyways,
screw Dick Cheney and everyone else! Dick Gephardt as VP would fill a similar niche (that was the POD of "Kerry's Choice"), since he was pro-gay marriage and as such would avoid the Lesbian Bump. Graham was also being vetted for a slot next to Kerry, but I think his weird Baghdad-on-the-Backburner anti-Iraq position would cause a lot of confusion on the ticket.
How does a Kerry win affect the Iraq War, Afghanistan, and the "War on Terror", in the short and long term? Earlier withdrawal, or just scaled down?
Depends on his Secretary of State. Conventional wisdom sides with Holbrooke, who is to Secretaries of State as Bob Graham is to Vice Presidents. I don't actually know Holbrooke's positions beyond him being a Democratic FoPo darling. I think, personally, that Joe Biden would get the State slot--he was a close friend of Kerry's (and was that aforementioned friend Kerry called to back down from a presidential run), and had his own visions for the Middle East. That being said, I don't think Kerry's gonna get out of Iraq or Afghanistan, but by the end of his term(s) he'd probably be far closer to the pull-out than Bush was. No '06 troop surge or anything.
What happens with Edwards, down the road (presuming he's picked for the VP slot as in OTL)?
I hate John Edwards, but had he been on the ticket he'd be golden. Edwards most famous scandal was entirely because he was on the campaign trail in '08 (his mistress was a staffer), so he'd probably not be indicted for misuse of campaign funds had he actively been the VP in '08, on Kerry's ticket.
If there are enough votes EC and otherwise (in Ohio, or elsewhere as I started with) for Kerry to win, would there be enough coattails in any of the Senate or House elections to (slightly) shrink the GOP majority? Case in point: Edwards gave up his Senate seat to run for VP; what are the chances Bowles (or somebody else, if there're sufficient butterflies for it) wins and keeps it for the Dems? Or Daschle in South Dakota? Castor in Florida? And if Kerry wins, who's likely to replace him in a special election?
The best states for a swing back are Kentucky, South Dakota, and Florida. If Edwards isn't on the ticket, he'll pull a Marco Rubio and return to the senate race in North Carolina, and probably win that. House probably won't swing too much, to be honest.
On Massachusetts, as others have mentioned, Beacon Hill would whip Romney into shape. Not only would they remove Romney's ability to appoint a Senator,
they did it the moment Kerry secured the nomination. Crowded primary ensues, on both sides. In "Kerry's Choice," I put Lynch in Labor so I could have one less head to keep track of. Democratic primary has a few major heads--Marty Meehan, Ed Markey, Barney Frank, and maybe some other familiar faces like Coakley etc. GOP primary probably goes to Lt Gov Kerry Healey, but I could see Charlie Baker or Sheriff Frank Cousins mounting a challenge. In "Kerry's Choice" I have the election be between Markey and Healey, with Healey losing because of her somewhat divisive stances attacking gay marriage (although in '05, gay marriage was still divisive, a bare majority of Democrats and Independents supported it). Just my two cents, though. If the matchup was, say, Frank vs. Cousins, Cousins would take it (thus making all of Massachusetts' black senators be Republicans).
With the mention of Katrina, I wonder how Kerry's response might differ from that of Bush's. Same with the '07-'08 economic crisis. What other ones (presuming the butterfly effect isn't strong enough) would he (likely) have to face, following an '04 victory?
In real life, Kerry used Hurricane Katrina to talk about the needs of healthcare reform. I imagine he'd do much the same as President, which brings up the interesting KerryCare dilemma. I don't think John'll get his whole vision out, but he won't be whipped by the GOP either.
Why? Majority Leader Bill Frist. He was a massive proponent of Obamacare, so come 2005 I imagine that he'd be glad to go to the negotiating table with Kerry (especially with the across-the-aisle assistance of almost-HHS-secretary Daschle). Keep in mind that some parts of Kerry's reforms (mostly the modernization of healthcare technology) had broad bipartisan appeal. Newt Gingrich and Hillary Clinton were agreeing to similar measures at around the same time.
On the Recession, it's a bit hard to predict, I think. There was a 2005 bill that would've helped regulate the housing industry (co-written by Barney Frank of
Dodd-Frank Act fame), that had bipartisan support (the other co-writer was Mike Oxley, a Republican representative from Ohio) but was allowed to die because everyone knew Bush would veto it. Kerry, though, wouldn't have. This absolutely wouldn't have been enough to stop the Recession, but it might dull its effects just enough for Kerry to eek out an electoral win (especially if the Republicans nominate a less-than-perfect nominee... for example, George Allen).
If the GOP gets similar margins in 2006 as it did in 2002 (a 4.8% win in the popular vote nationally), that's a 12.8 point swing (Democrats won by 8 points in 2006 OTL). Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Washington could go Republican. If the Republicans win by a margin like in 1994 or 2010 (6.8% both years) or like Democrats in 2006 (8%), then that's a 14.8 or 16 point swing. Senate isn't the same as house, but GOP probably ends up with a supermajority after the 2006 and 2008 elections, since 2004 was a poisoned chalice.
I don't buy it. The GOP in '06 was fragile, and Kerry in power isn't going to make, for example, the numerous corruption and sex scandals in the House vanish in a puff of smoke. They'd keep the Senate majorities, but I don't think it'll be a massive staggering Red Sweep (especially in the House).