My problem with FFO is that it pretends that there is a way out of that collapse that not only works in regards to creating a force that fights on but for it to somehow maintain the mass support and loyalty of the body politic in general. It creates a political will that just didn't exist. To the extent that its Point of Divergence is nearly a farce "Oh the Premier would have done the morally correct and painful thing and walked the path of a martyr if only his girlfriend was dead?" That's not how nations on the brink go about continuing to stand and fight.
It doesn't work that way. At all.
Let's take that problem differently.
As of early June 1940 (when the FFO POD happens) , a lot of French still wanted to fight - see the resistance on the Weygand line, Les cadets de saumur, and many others.
Fighting from Algiers was seriously considered.
What happened over the next month was that
- a) Pétain and Laval did one hell of a good job (unfortunately)
to get 3rd Republic legacy. They granted themselves full power (July 10, 1940) then compliance from all three armies, and many other symbols left by the Republic.
- b) This, plus
Mers el Kebir, made a lot of people HESITATE to join De Gaulle in London, because he was a nobody with little forces, little political clout, and little legitimacy on the world stage, unfortunately.
Mers el Kebir happened on July 3, 1940, and unfortunately, it was one hell of godsend for Pétain and Laval. They didn't had to move a finger: for most French people, the British were now traitors, and this added to Dunkirk in people minds (
Betrayed. Twice in two months. That what most people felt back then.
Completely unfair to the British, of course.)
- c) Most importantly, most people assumed Pétain would get france OUT of WWII, and that the Germans would
RETIRE
- d) as happened in
1870 - they occupied Paris, humiliated France, but by 1871
they went away.
- e) Few people imagined Pétain would sold the country to cooperation with Germany. Pétain actually was not that enthusiast about it (he had fought in Verdun after all)
- f) it was mostly
Laval that started licking Hitler arse, with the vain hope Hitler would be nice with France and its inhabitants (how wrong was he: Hitler didn't gave a shit about Laval or France, he was interested only in 1) killing all the jews and 2) killing all the communists)
- g) The exact reason why FFO POD went the way it did was not only to get ride of Paul Reynaud mistress, but also of another, far more important advisor that was a defeatist and hated de Gaulle. His name was
Paul de Villelume.
In the FFO POD, Villelume is driving the car carrying Reynaud mistress and then he stupidly crash to Reynaud furor. Convenient (as Batman HISHE would say) ? maybe.
- h) So Reynaud gets a shot in the arm and turns away from defeatism, NOT because his girlfriend is dead, but also because one of his key advisors (defeatist) is gone. That's the real turning point.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_de_Villelume
- i) Pétain prestige and growing influence, that OTL ensured a lot of French people would stuck with Vichy as a lesser evil, despite the growing horror it carried - that prestige and influence are stopped dead on tracks on June 13.
- j) Instead of Reynaud throwing the towel and Pétain stepping in (as happened OTL on june 17) Reynaud does not throw the towel, the defeatist faction is stopped some days earlier. Pétain tries a political coup de force on June 13 but is defeated by a coalition - not only the sacro*sanct De Gaulle, but also many less known politicians, blum, Mandel, and many others.
