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Corbyn PODs

Now that the man is stepping down, what are good/interesting PODs throughout his nearly five years at the helm? Not getting enough signatures to get into the ballot in 2015 is probably the biggest one, but how about ones that make him leave earlier, or win any of the two general elections that occurred under his leadership?
  • The Grenfell Tower fire happens a week earlier, Labour is the largest party by three seats
  • Corbyn is kept off the ballot in 2016 by the NEC - probably the fastest route to a damp-squib Momentum Party
  • The 2017 election isn't held at all, and the McDonnell Amendment passes conference as expected. Johnny Mac takes over in 2018 after disappointing locals under Corbyn
  • And, of course: Britain votes to Remain in the European Union in 2016
Also, your usertitle go brrrr
 
Owen Hatherley has made an - in my view - very prescient observation that the 2017 general election, in particular the agonizing closeness of it, changed almost overnight Labour Left thinking about what Corbyn meant. To begin with he was a project, quite openly discussed as someone to achieve necessary internal reform, shift the party to the left and then hand over to someone like John McDonnell or potentially the next generation. After 2017, he was the next potential Prime Minister, and it really felt that replacing him with a safer pair of hands would have cost the movement momentum (lol) and also probably would have had a figure unable to rally the kind of enthusiasm Corbyn inspired. A major POD would have been if the thinking had gone completely the opposite way, and if the strategic left doubled down to ensure that McDonnell was in position as quickly as possible for the government to inevitably fall.
 
No Falkirk debacle or a different fallout from the Falkirk debacle, the electoral college stays and he loses narrowly?
It's an interesting one, because when Burnham loses in 2017 there'd be a credible and more broadly-backed left wing candidate in the race to succeed him. The question is who.
 
  • The Grenfell Tower fire happens a week earlier, Labour is the largest party by three seats
  • Corbyn is kept off the ballot in 2016 by the NEC - probably the fastest route to a damp-squib Momentum Party
  • The 2017 election isn't held at all, and the McDonnell Amendment passes conference as expected. Johnny Mac takes over in 2018 after disappointing locals under Corbyn
  • And, of course: Britain votes to Remain in the European Union in 2016
Also, your usertitle go brrrr
Remain winning would be fascinating, but I struggle to see in which ways it would influence the party because the political landscape would be totally alien.
 
It's an interesting one, because when Burnham loses in 2017 there'd be a credible and more broadly-backed left wing candidate in the race to succeed him. The question is who.
Actually, the even more interesting scenario is if butterflies change the dynamics of the race enough that Cooper wins instead, because she would have worse relations with the left-wing of the PLP than Burnham and you might have some sort of a consolidation of that in opposition to her on top of the inevitable warfare in the CLPs when !Momentum starts to make its presence felt.
 
Off the top off my head:

2015

-No Falkirk- the electoral college remains, and Corbyn loses to Burnham despite having the overwhelming backing of the membership and the unions
-Corbyn doesn't run in the first place/fails to get on the ballot
-Corbyn doesn't get on the ballot because Ummuna stays in the contest
-Corbyn doesn't run because one of the other MPs touted as a standard bearer of the left puts themselves forward instead. Trickett, Lavery, McDonnell, or even one of the new intake such as Clive Lewis were all suggested. I could even see Chris Williamson going for it had he got the few dozen more votes he needed to survive in Derby North in 2015. Not all of those candidates could win, but I feel like Lewis or Trickett would be in with a decent shout, and either of them would have very interesting implications for the party's approach to Brexit.
-Labour votes against the Welfare Bill, or Burnham resigns to vote against it-probably wouldn't change the final outcome, but would result in a more narrow margin of victory for Corbyn, placing him in an even weaker position in his first year in charge

2016
Britain votes Remain- not necessarily a Corbyn related PoD, but it would be very interesting to see how long a leadership challenge (which was probably inevitable at some point) was delayed, and whether his opponent would stand a better chance if the contest was a year or so later than IOTL. Also, a UKIP surge gives Labour a stronger chance of winning the next election (possibly even with a majority) if it can be sustained till then. Conversely, no Brexit divide might also means more defections to ChUK.

Corbyn resigns during the coup as he was allegedly close to doing, or Watson succeeds in getting the NEC to keep him off the ballot. Unless there was a quid pro quo that allowed Lewis or some other hard left candidate on the ballot, the next leader would probably be Owen Smith or some other soft left candidate- and the hard left would be massively alienated from Labour.

-The PLP chooses a different challenger to Corbyn. Angela Eagle is the most obvious one, but I think she would if anything do slightly worse than Smith. Nandy would give him more of a run for his money due to the fact it would be far harder to cast aspersions on her left wing credentials. Even if she didn't win, a smaller margin of victory for Corbyn would be perceived as weakening his mandate, possibly paving the way for a second leadership challenge at some point in the future.

-Starmer isn't appointed Shadow Brexit Secretary-potentially leading to a smoother path to victory for RLB or whoever Corbyn's preferred successor turns out to be.

2017

Labour loses Stoke on Trent Central to UKIP- probably because they go for a strong local candidate over Nuttall. Probably leads to a mini-UKIP resurgence, and leads to fresh calls for Corbyn to go-though I doubt he would do so immediately.

Lewis does not resign from the Shadow Cabinet over A50-possibly stymieing the promotion of RLB, and putting him in a stronger position to be seen as the natural successor to Corbyn.

No 2017 GE. Much like no Brexit, the main question is whether disaffection with Corbyn would set in before the end of the parliament leading to him being ousted, or whether he might limp on till the next GE.

A longer 2017 Campaign/an earlier Grenfell Tower Fire-the momentum Labour accumulated from this could be enough to enable them to form a minority government- and possibly become the largest party

A shorter campaign/no dementia tax. The Tories win a majority, but not the humongous one they were looking at at the outset of the campaign. A sweet spot would be one large enough to pass the WAB at third time of asking off the back of Labour rebels-which could cause massive internal division, and is probably your best chance of their dire polling at the fag end of the May era actually enduring until a GE. Corbyn resigns if Labour lose more than fifteen seats. If the result is better than that, he might try and stay on, but face far stiffer resistance from the mainstream PLP.

2018

-Labour adopts IHRA definition in full immediately

2019

Watson is ousted by the NEC at the 2019 Conference- this would likely create an absolute shit storm within the PLP that could potentially mean more defections right on the brink of a GE.

The Conference votes to campaign for Remain in a second referendum-probably enables Labour to maintain a stronger hold on Remain voters at the GE, perhaps doing slightly better in terms of seats.
 
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It's an interesting one, because when Burnham loses in 2017 there'd be a credible and more broadly-backed left wing candidate in the race to succeed him. The question is who.
I doubt there would be a 2017 if Burnham was leader. Although Labour would likely be behind in the polls, the gap would probably be far too close for May to risk it.
Actually, the even more interesting scenario is if butterflies change the dynamics of the race enough that Cooper wins instead, because she would have worse relations with the left-wing of the PLP than Burnham and you might have some sort of a consolidation of that in opposition to her on top of the inevitable warfare in the CLPs when !Momentum starts to make its presence felt.
A Burnham victory is probably a far more likely scenario though, given where the vast majority of members were at in 2015. What's more I actually think he would be more of a catastrophe for Labour. Cooper was dull, but basically competent, and would probably be able to keep at least her side of the party happy.

If his performance in 2015 was anything to go by, Burnham would probably bounce around wildly in an attempt to appease all wings of the party and of Labour's electoral coalition and in doing so, appease none, and shed votes to pretty much every other major party. If you wanted a Labour disintegration PoD, I think Burnham winning a narrow victory over Corbyn in 2015 due to the EC would be a great place to start.
 
While, for example, Ed Miliband conceivably loses his.
Conceivably, but I am not certain our OTL position was really won over any leavers who would otherwise have voted Tory/BP. As has been said frequently since the election, the trouble was that Leavers perceived Labour as a Remain Party, whilst Remainers perceived us as being for Leave. Actually being for Remain would make a difference (though not a huge one) among the latter group, whilst not really effecting things with the former.
 
Remain winning would be fascinating, but I struggle to see in which ways it would influence the party because the political landscape would be totally alien.
Yeah, it's just so big that it's hard to do - but it's also therefore true that it would utterly transform Corbynism's fortunes. Not necessarily to the point of 'Corbyn Takes Power Next Month After George Osborne Runs A Shit Campaign', but do many of the dominos of OTL fell the way they did because of Vote Leave.
 
Yeah, it's just so big that it's hard to do - but it's also therefore true that it would utterly transform Corbynism's fortunes. Not necessarily to the point of 'Corbyn Takes Power Next Month After George Osborne Runs A Shit Campaign', but do many of the dominos of OTL fell the way they did because of Vote Leave.

Assuming a remain vote means no snap elections and we'd be planning for one now, you'd pretty much have to have a national government as soon as you delay it due to the pandemic wouldn't you?
 
Not a terrible shout, he was who my Corncob Left mates told me should be standing as the socialist candidate instead of Corbyn in 2015.

Along with someone named 'Lisa Nandy', too.
Yes exactly my thinking, without a public break there would be no reason to doubt his purported lefty cred
 
I think a big PoD could be Cameron winning his Syria vote, and then the dominoes leading to British participation in a disastrous NATO intervention. Corbyn would be in a strong position to be the anti-war candidate rather than the guy with confusing public views on Brexit.
 
Conceivably, but I am not certain our OTL position was really won over any leavers who would otherwise have voted Tory/BP.
It's absolutely not a case of 'winning them over' - it's a case of convincing people who had voted Labour in every previous election, and never considered doing anything else, not to stay home or vote Conservative, not out of any great enthusiasm but just sufficient benefit-of-the-doubt uncertainty that the party had not become anathema to them. Caroline Flint fighting the long defeat in the local press every week for a year before the election.
 
It's absolutely not a case of 'winning them over' - it's a case of convincing people who had voted Labour in every previous election, and never considered doing anything else, not to stay home or vote Conservative, not out of any great enthusiasm but just sufficient benefit-of-the-doubt uncertainty that the party had not become anathema to them. Caroline Flint fighting the long defeat in the local press every week for a year before the election.
That was basically what I meant by winning them over- not turning Labour leavers into advocates of a second referendum, but convincing them to give us the benefit of the doubt and vote for us despite their objections to our Brexit policy. The trouble is that I'm not convinced that there are a significant number of voters who were convinced to do that by our OTL position.
 
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