Re-read an AH essay by William H. McNeill which mentioned this possibility, and so I wanted to put it to the forum (apologies if it's already up somewhere else):
What if the 1918 flu pandemic hadn't arisen, either in that year or at all?
I have doubts as to the very last; the conditions of the Western Front and the world in general (rapidly shifting populations, increasing inter-connection by ship and rail, and the overstraining or collapse of infrastructure given wartime demands, resource shortages or simple chaos) point to some form of global disease arising, probably by 1920 at the absolute latest. But what might be altered (in WWI, in world politics, in medicine, to name just three) if the pandemic struck after 1918? What does this lead to short-term (Ex: the final CP & Allied operations of 1918, more spec. American participation in these) and long-term (Ex: the eventual peace at Versailles, or elsewhere; the Russian Civil War; Wilson's final years; the formation of the League of Nations; the Warlord Era in China; European and Japanese imperialism)?
Also, if the pandemic is delayed, even if by just a couple of years at most, does this mean it strikes with greater or less virulence and lower or higher death rates compared to OTL?
What if the 1918 flu pandemic hadn't arisen, either in that year or at all?
I have doubts as to the very last; the conditions of the Western Front and the world in general (rapidly shifting populations, increasing inter-connection by ship and rail, and the overstraining or collapse of infrastructure given wartime demands, resource shortages or simple chaos) point to some form of global disease arising, probably by 1920 at the absolute latest. But what might be altered (in WWI, in world politics, in medicine, to name just three) if the pandemic struck after 1918? What does this lead to short-term (Ex: the final CP & Allied operations of 1918, more spec. American participation in these) and long-term (Ex: the eventual peace at Versailles, or elsewhere; the Russian Civil War; Wilson's final years; the formation of the League of Nations; the Warlord Era in China; European and Japanese imperialism)?
Also, if the pandemic is delayed, even if by just a couple of years at most, does this mean it strikes with greater or less virulence and lower or higher death rates compared to OTL?
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