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Alternate History General Discussion

So looking back at the legend of D. B. Cooper (and @M_Kresal 's great story about him in Allo Americana) makes me wonder both about the alternate history potential of him directly (I hold to the boring official view that he almost certainly died in the leap, but fiction can be fiction), and what would happen if a 9/11-scale incident happened during the "Golden Age of Hijacking" (since thanks to kamikazes in WWII, the concept of a suicidal aircraft ramming would not be unknown).

I have to confess I’m in two minds as to whether Cooper could have made it on the available evidence. Intellectually, I’m inclined to lean toward him being dead in the forests of the Pacific Northwest while the imaginative side of me looks at the Richard McCoy copycat case and thinks “Perhaps…”

I do think, as well, there’s AH potential in the idea. There’s Samuel Byck’s attempt to kill Nixon, for example, or even something going wrong with another historical hijacking. For that matter, as has proven rich fodder for 9/11 conspiracy theorists, the WTC towers were designed to take a 707 strike. Well, under the conditions of getting lost in the fog at comparatively low speed flying into JFK with an empty tank.
 
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So looking back at the legend of D. B. Cooper (and @M_Kresal 's great story about him in Allo Americana) makes me wonder both about the alternate history potential of him directly (I hold to the boring official view that he almost certainly died in the leap, but fiction can be fiction), and what would happen if a 9/11-scale incident happened during the "Golden Age of Hijacking" (since thanks to kamikazes in WWII, the concept of a suicidal aircraft ramming would not be unknown).

For some reason Southern Airways Flight 49 is obscure even though the hijackers threatened to crash into Oak Ridge. The incident also led directly to the requirement that aircraft passengers be screened before flight in the United States.
 
A problem with Nazi Germany v. America Cold Wars is that unlike Communism Nazism isn't an ideology that can gain support from everyone regardless of what continent they reside in as it is a racial ideology to the core. All such a Cold War would consist of is the Nazis and Italians engaging in brutality to get the colonies of Vichy France, Spain, Portugal, Italy etc. in Africa and eventually running out of money before collapsing in the 60s or 70s. Not to mention the Slavic insurgency in Eastern Europe. It wouldn't be the worldwide global struggle as the OTL Cold War was.

I think it's an "either or situation", after putting a lot of thought in it over the last year.

For one, given people like Nasser and Saddat did in their youth dabble in Nazi organizations/thinking, I don't think there's a lot of merit to claim Nazism wouldn't have any appeal in the Third World. It also doesn't need to be genuine belief anymore than it was IOTL Cold War; both sides then were more than willing to fund just about anybody against the other, and I still see that pragmatism existing here. For what it's worth, Hitler's thought process in the last half of the war very much seemed to signal either a changed opinion or his original stance coming to the fore in his final days:

"The white races did, of course, give some things to the natives, and they were the worst gifts that they could possibly have made, those plagues of our own modern world-materialism, fanaticism, alcoholism and syphilis. For the rest, since these peoples possessed qualities of their own which were superior to anything we could offer them, they have remained essentially unchanged. Where imposition by force was attempted, the results were even more disastrous, and common sense, realizing the futility of such measures, should preclude any recourse to their introduction. One solitary success must be conceded to the colonizers: everywhere they have succeeded in arousing hatred, a hatred that urges these peoples, awakened from their slumbers by us, to rise and drive us out. Indeed, it looks almost as though they had awakened solely and simply for that purpose! Can anyone assert that colonization has increased the number of Christians in the world? Where are those conversions en masse which mark the success of Islam? Here and there one finds isolated islets of Christians, Christians in name, that is, rather than by conviction; and that is the sum total of the successes of this magnificent Christian religion, the guardian of supreme Truth! Taking everything into consideration, Europe's policy of colonization has ended in a complete failure."​
And further:

"Never, at any price, should we have put our money on France and against the peoples subjected to her yoke. On the contrary, we should have helped them to achieve their liberty and, if necessary, should have goaded them into doing so. There was nothing to stop us in 1940 from making a gesture of this sort in the Near East and in North Africa. In actual fact our diplomats instead set about the task of consolidating French power, not only in Syria, but in Tunis, in Algeria and Morocco as well. Our 'gentlemen' obviously preferred to maintain cordial relations with distinguished Frenchmen, rather than with a lot of hirsute revolutionaries, with a chorus of musical comedy officers, whose one idea was to cheat us, rather than with the Arabs, who would have been loyal partners for us."​
Now, this isn't defending Hitler as some sort of Anti-Colonial hero, but I do think it shows that blanket statements about the colonial struggle in the event of a Nazi-American War aren't really valid, as even Hitler had the capacity to at least cognitively grasp pragmatism on the subject. You can also expand that into another area: If the Nazis control the European homelands, what does American Anti-Colonialism mean for their the Free French/Belgian/Dutch/etc allies?

If you, as the Americans, start supporting Algerian independence that leaves not only the Free French angry with you, it also serves to improve the legitimacy of Vichy by giving them free propaganda to use against you as well as the fact you're effectively destroying the Free French as a movement by removing their main resource base. Same goes for the British, because it threatens to destroy their economy; IOTL, London had the choice between the Commonwealth and joining Europe. If you don't want them to join Nazi Europe, you have to let them keep the Empire in some shape or form, which then leaves you exposed to the Nazis to agitate against you. One conclusion I've come to is if the Americans do go Anti-Colonial and Britain loses her Empire, at a certain point you're going to get your TTL's version of the "Nixon goes to China" moment with Nazi Germany simply because high defense spending and no ability to trade is going to crash (America is still going to become dominant even with the Dominions) the British standard of living.
 
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That's Hitler saying it when the war's almost lost, along with quotes about how he's never been "quite free of racial hatred". It reads less like an evolution of ideas and more an oft-erratic man being erratic. War's being lost and France now liberated? Bah, if only I'd told the Vichy French to fuck off and liberated the Arabs who are much better and not decadent modernists! If he'd won, he'd be thinking something else
 
For the idea of a fascist Third World, I feel like Japan, who at least on occasion paid vague lip service to the idea of anti-colonial struggle to mess up their geopolitical rivals, would probably have a better shot at sending several thousand crates of guns to al-Din al-Bitar/Savimbi/Elijah Muhammed than the Germans. Especially if Azad Hind paid off.

Admittedly the Germans did get one anti-colonial ally during WW2 (two if you count the IRA), but I feel like Amin al-Husseini is sort of the exception that proves the rule, given that he was mostly just in it for the antisemitism.
 
For the idea of a fascist Third World, I feel like Japan, who at least on occasion paid vague lip service to the idea of anti-colonial struggle to mess up their geopolitical rivals, would probably have a better shot at sending several thousand crates of guns to al-Din al-Bitar/Savimbi/Elijah Muhammed than the Germans. Especially if Azad Hind paid off.

Admittedly the Germans did get one anti-colonial ally during WW2 (two if you count the IRA), but I feel like Amin al-Husseini is sort of the exception that proves the rule, given that he was mostly just in it for the antisemitism.

It depends a lot on how much ideology rules the show vs realpolitik and how much fascism getting some big wins affects those calls.

I agree with Lerk that it would find it much harder to gain ground in the global south as a native ideology than communism did. Communism was already the anti colonial ideology prior to 1917 and Libya/Ethiopia were big deals in terms of brutal fascist imperialism in Africa both in terms of poising the well and on needing to have troops still there to protect those gains if they still exist. Like Lerk says if you're already there genociding the libyans and preventing the Ethiopians from rising up, it's a bit harder to present yourself as too far away to be a threat. But on the other hand, you're close enough that you might be worth placating.

And like you said there is Amin al-Husseini and Azad Hind, there's also the Eritreans and the Spanish Moroccans. I joked about Francisco Macías Nguema but his mad speech about how Hitler was trying to protect Africa by invading France, largely comes from the way Franco gave more (though still very limited) rights to Africans in the Spanish Empire than the Republic had and as such the vast majority of Africans sided with the nationalists during the Spanish Civil War.

Pragmatism and taking whatever money you can get might well lead to fascist puppet states being spun off like slovakia was and even independent rulers from the former british empire taking fascist colours cos it worked elsewhere right.

I think if we assume a fascist europe but the USA is still of equal power but relatively democratic and rich, there'll be a lot less Africans turning to Berlin than did to Moscow. The question really is how much does whoever now runs Berlin care about Africa. You could say that either the fascists continue to prop up the European empires while the usa throws money at freedom fighters and you get a really bloody war like in otl Portuguese empire with a side-line in more genocide like the pacification of Libya. Or you could say they have their hands full in Russia and are likely to just go 'ok lets spin off some puppet states and get the fuck out of here'.

I think it depends on what kind of fascist victory condition you're imagining. How they won, who are their leaders etc. Asia certainly depends on whether this axis victory includes wins for Japan or not.

Certainly if we imagine a direct parallel where there no axis troops in Africa/the middle east at all when they win ww2, that's going to be a lot tougher for fascism to get a foothold, though I imagine a lot of people won't turn down money.
 
Strange JFK POD after his death.

If Oswald is fatally wounded by police (say that Tippit gets lucky, or he resists arrest, or that 1960s southern police don't feel like acting merciful to a known cop-killer), how would that affect the conspiracy theories?

It probably came to within an instant or two of that as it was, witness accounts of the arrest in the theater vary in some details but do agree Oswald tried to draw and fire his gun as he was being arrested. I guess it makes the whole thing smaller and neater, subtracting the shocking televised murder and the entire Jack Ruby connection, and maybe that depressurizes it to some extent. But perhaps there are a hundred strange things (real or imagined) that we don't know about whichever Dallas police officer would have shot him, but would have learned if they had become the focus of conspiracy theorist obsessives.
 
It depends a lot on how much ideology rules the show vs realpolitik and how much fascism getting some big wins affects those calls.

There are a lot of people who are attracted to fascist ideology - Mussolini/Franco style if not Hitler - because they either see value in having a single organized structure capable of arranging the nation properly (and see themselves as being one of the bosses instead of being the person who gets beaten up/arrested/murdered/enslaved/etc) and it isn't impossible there'd be a tread towards fascistic governments if Hitler won the war and fascism wasn't deeply discredited as it was in OTL. (In this timeline, communism might be seen as a dead end instead.) The further they were from the Reich, or the less aware they were of Nazi atrocities, the more fascism might seem attractive, particularly if the country was being torn apart by post-independence faction fighting.

Chris
 
Strange JFK POD after his death.

If Oswald is fatally wounded by police (say that Tippit gets lucky, or he resists arrest, or that 1960s southern police don't feel like acting merciful to a known cop-killer), how would that affect the conspiracy theories?

Given a potentially misspent lifetime of reading up on the assassination, I'm inclined to agree with @Von Callay's take. Oswald dying before ever getting to trial is going to fuel speculation, whether it's based on real or imagined circumstances, as the Lincoln assassination has proven (which for me is a far more clear cut case). Ruby not shooting Oswald on live TV would avoid adding to the national trauma and the murmurs might well stay that way. I suspect, on the basis of things like the Lincoln assassination and Pearl Harbor conspiracy theories, they would still exist but not at the level that's inspired a library full of books and two Hollywood feature films on the topic.

The real question is if things like the Zapruder Film end up getting buried (by means however well or ill-intentioned, depending on one's POV). We often forget the shock of it being shown on network television in the mid-1970s, having only been seen in limited circulation before that point (and infamously having had frames printed in the wrong order in the print press), played a role in establishing the notion of a conspiracy on the public at large. As Dan Rather observed, having seen the film in 1963 as a reporter before Life bought the film and it went into a vault for years, the film not being circulated gave the impression of a cover-up, whether there was one or not.
 
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I think the Kennedy assassination is likely going to create conspiracy theories no matter what happens, his death was just too shocking for a lot of people to handle. Plus, the general trend for the 1960s and 70s was for actual conspiracies to come to light (COINTELPRO, Watergate, pretty much everything the CIA ever did, etc.) and people to be increasingly distrustful of official narratives, which is the perfect fodder for conspiracy theories. After all, Sirhan Sirhan and James Earl Ray were captured and convicted, and that did literally nothing to stop conspiracies about RFK and MLK's deaths.
 
That's Hitler saying it when the war's almost lost, along with quotes about how he's never been "quite free of racial hatred". It reads less like an evolution of ideas and more an oft-erratic man being erratic. War's being lost and France now liberated? Bah, if only I'd told the Vichy French to fuck off and liberated the Arabs who are much better and not decadent modernists! If he'd won, he'd be thinking something else

Sure, but that even he, in the last phase of his life when most biographers/contemporaries considered him the most unstable, was able to grasp the significance of such I think is telling. The American Bloc is in a long term predicament because they will have to decide between propping up the Free European nations or going Anti-Colonial as per OTL eventually. I'd agree Nazi Germany's natural inclination will be to support their allies (such as Vichy France or Fascist Italy) but if the Americans do go for propping up the Free Europeans in their colonies, I don't think there is anything stopping Nazi Germany from becoming the Anti-Colonialist bloc in the Cold War.
 
The magnitude and horror of the Final Solution will be scarcely known in a world where the Nazis won, which is I think an underappreciated reality of most 'Nazis win' scenarios.

I think it also requires a certain naivete about the world, in that it assumes concepts such as racial supremacy, anti-semitism, etc are unique to European societies only. Case in point is how even IOTL Nazi Germany enjoyed support in both the Arab world and from Japan, despite the ideology of Nazi Germany being obvious even to contemporaries.
 
I think the Kennedy assassination is likely going to create conspiracy theories no matter what happens, his death was just too shocking for a lot of people to handle. Plus, the general trend for the 1960s and 70s was for actual conspiracies to come to light (COINTELPRO, Watergate, pretty much everything the CIA ever did, etc.) and people to be increasingly distrustful of official narratives, which is the perfect fodder for conspiracy theories. After all, Sirhan Sirhan and James Earl Ray were captured and convicted, and that did literally nothing to stop conspiracies about RFK and MLK's deaths.
Eh, there's a lot less.
Some of that's just JFK being President of course, but I can't believe Ruby helped.
 
The magnitude and horror of the Final Solution will be scarcely known in a world where the Nazis won, which is I think an underappreciated reality of most 'Nazis win' scenarios.
I thought @Thande's story featuring basically a historical revisionism museum in a post-Nazi Germany where even said revisionists, while explaining the Nazis were actually even worse than the current official line, go "well there were obviously pogroms, and they were probably bigger than we admit, but, well, things get exaggerated you know? Don't listen too much to the conspiracy theorists" when it comes to the camps was a fairly chilling portrayal of how this could end up - I think mainly based on the Armenian Genocide.
 
I thought @Thande's story featuring basically a historical revisionism museum in a post-Nazi Germany where even said revisionists, while explaining the Nazis were actually even worse than the current official line, go "well there were obviously pogroms, and they were probably bigger than we admit, but, well, things get exaggerated you know? Don't listen too much to the conspiracy theorists" when it comes to the camps was a fairly chilling portrayal of how this could end up - I think mainly based on the Armenian Genocide.
It was more based on whataboutery bluster when Mao and Stalin's crimes come up (if anything specific) but yes, the Armenian Genocide is an even better comparison.
 
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