So this is something that I've been kinda curious about for a while. So to cut a long story short, in 2010 the election results of that years General Election in Oldham East & Saddleworth was declared void as Phil Woolas, the MP at the time, had knowingly made false statements about his Lib Dem opponent Elwyn Watkins. The seat was an ultra-marginal, with Labour holding a majority of 103 (0.2%) votes over the Lib Dems.
Despite what would seem, on the surface, to be a favourable conditions for a Team Pantone gain, the Lib Dems, now members of the Government, were defeated by Labour with Debbie Abrahams elected MP against Watkins with an increased majority of over 3,400 votes. A variety of factors, atop the issue of being in Government, are cited for the Lib Dems defeat, be it Minister Andrew Stunell's breaking of Purdah, the decision by the Conservative Party to run a candidate- one who Cameron personally campaigned for- ensured that the anti-Labour vote was split, and the presence of Students in the Constituency home from the holiday's and still burned by the recent Tuition Fees raise and their subsequent protests in the November of 2010.
The Lib Dems still made a strong showing despite these disadvantages, narrowly increasing their vote share, although obviously not enough to stop the seat becoming a safe Labour one. However the defeat would be the first in a long line of defeats for the Lib Dems in by-elections, embarrassing for a party previously notorious for its ability to make gains, something the party wouldn't do again until Richmond Park in 2016.
So what if, without any pact shenanigans, the Lib Dems pull it off and win Oldham East & Saddleworth?
Despite what would seem, on the surface, to be a favourable conditions for a Team Pantone gain, the Lib Dems, now members of the Government, were defeated by Labour with Debbie Abrahams elected MP against Watkins with an increased majority of over 3,400 votes. A variety of factors, atop the issue of being in Government, are cited for the Lib Dems defeat, be it Minister Andrew Stunell's breaking of Purdah, the decision by the Conservative Party to run a candidate- one who Cameron personally campaigned for- ensured that the anti-Labour vote was split, and the presence of Students in the Constituency home from the holiday's and still burned by the recent Tuition Fees raise and their subsequent protests in the November of 2010.
The Lib Dems still made a strong showing despite these disadvantages, narrowly increasing their vote share, although obviously not enough to stop the seat becoming a safe Labour one. However the defeat would be the first in a long line of defeats for the Lib Dems in by-elections, embarrassing for a party previously notorious for its ability to make gains, something the party wouldn't do again until Richmond Park in 2016.
So what if, without any pact shenanigans, the Lib Dems pull it off and win Oldham East & Saddleworth?