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WI: The Lib Dems win the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election?

moth

Mothleton
Location
Portsmoth
So this is something that I've been kinda curious about for a while. So to cut a long story short, in 2010 the election results of that years General Election in Oldham East & Saddleworth was declared void as Phil Woolas, the MP at the time, had knowingly made false statements about his Lib Dem opponent Elwyn Watkins. The seat was an ultra-marginal, with Labour holding a majority of 103 (0.2%) votes over the Lib Dems.

Despite what would seem, on the surface, to be a favourable conditions for a Team Pantone gain, the Lib Dems, now members of the Government, were defeated by Labour with Debbie Abrahams elected MP against Watkins with an increased majority of over 3,400 votes. A variety of factors, atop the issue of being in Government, are cited for the Lib Dems defeat, be it Minister Andrew Stunell's breaking of Purdah, the decision by the Conservative Party to run a candidate- one who Cameron personally campaigned for- ensured that the anti-Labour vote was split, and the presence of Students in the Constituency home from the holiday's and still burned by the recent Tuition Fees raise and their subsequent protests in the November of 2010.

The Lib Dems still made a strong showing despite these disadvantages, narrowly increasing their vote share, although obviously not enough to stop the seat becoming a safe Labour one. However the defeat would be the first in a long line of defeats for the Lib Dems in by-elections, embarrassing for a party previously notorious for its ability to make gains, something the party wouldn't do again until Richmond Park in 2016.

So what if, without any pact shenanigans, the Lib Dems pull it off and win Oldham East & Saddleworth?
 
To some extent I think you've got a Winchester situation, but this feels like it might chane the narrative a bit (and thus perhaps get some more favourable coverage) until March rolls round and Barnsley Central becomes the defining moment of 'well shit'. I can't see the Lib Dems not falling back there, though maybe a somewhat healthier looking party might stay above the Indo and the BNP.
 
Two immediate outcomes:

a) The Lib Dems have won their first 'test', and it was hyped as a test of how people felt about the coalition, so they're going to be feeling a lot more confident and the 'narrative' will be on their side. That will make them bolshier, and make Labour worried, and make the Tories worried because they don't want the Lib Dems entrenched.

b) Labour (and press) will assume this is because Andrew Stunell blabbed a government policy to reuse empty homes. They won't be happy! Neither will the Tories when the Lib Dems go "boy that was a popular policy!" and push for more.

This, as Alex says, lasts up until Barnsley Central. Maybe the alternate narrative stops the Lib Dems losing as bad but they'll still lose. However, it's possible that this butterflies part of the Barnsley result: UKIP coming second. The Conservatives will want to flex their muscles after the last two months, right-wing voters might be more inclined to back them after two months of stories of Those Lib Dems - it still gives a story about how the Tories came this close to being beaten to 2nd by UKIP but that's a very different narrative than "UKIP COMES SECOND, BEATS BOTH COALITION PARTIES".
 
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