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WI Pagan Empire converts earlier

Jared

Book 1 - 70%
Published by SLP
Location
Over the rainbow
No, not the pagan Empire, the Pagan Empire. This place. The first large kingdom in what would become Burma (Myanmar).

In AD 1044, the moderately-sized Pagan principality in what is now central lowland Burma came under the rule of Anawrahta, a vigorous ruler who over three decades first transformed his principality's economic base by investing in infrastructure, and then founded a large empire, the Pagan Empire, which became the core of the modern state of Burma. The Pagan Empire last until the 1280s, when Mongol invasions broke the Pagan rulers' authority and most of their subject peoples rebelled.

Anawrhata is also notable for converting from his native religion of Ari Buddhism (a syncretic form of Mahayana Buddhism which included some Hindu elements and local beliefs) to Theravada Buddhism. The Pagan Empire became the first large state in Southeast Asia to promote Theravada Buddhism (though some peoples had converted earlier, such as the Mon). While the Pagan Empire itself did not survive the thirteenth century, Theravada missionaries from the Pagan Empire (and from Sri Lanka) converted some of their neighbouring states from Mahayana Buddhism (or Hindo-Buddhism) to Theravada Buddhism. As a result, today Theravada is the dominant form of Buddhism in Burma, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos in mainland SE Asia (as well as in Sri Lanka). Many of those regions had, and to a degree still have, syncretic elements from Mahayana Buddhism, Hinduism and local religions, but the Theravada tradition is dominant.

For background, modern Buddhism is divided into two main branches, Theravada Buddhism and Mahayana Buddhism. Theravada Buddhism is generally more conservative in its doctrines and practices, seeking to preserve what are believed to be the original teachings of the Buddha. In the Theravada tradition, Buddha is seen as unique, and the eventual goal is to attain enlightenment and nirvana, which may take many llifetimes. Generally nirvana is seen as attainable only by monks, although in many Theravada traditions many people in society may become monks.

In contrast, Mahayana Buddhism is generally more flexible in its beliefs, and incorporates more rituals and mystic elements. In the Mahayana tradition, the founding Buddha (Gautama Buddha) is seen as one of many Buddhas, and it is considered possible for anyone to become enlightened as a Buddha over time. Where Theravada holds that the path to enlightenment and nirvana can take many lifetimes, many Mahayana schools hold that it is possible to obtain enlightenment in a single lifetime, or sometimes rebirth into another realm where enlightenment becomes easier. In Mahayana Buddhism, while there are still monastic orders, similar practices of prayer and meditation are available to both monks and laypeople. Mahayana Buddhism has the core concept of bodhisattvas, that is beings which are on the path to Buddhahood and use their insight for the benefit of everyone. Bodhisattvas are usually depicted as helping humans.

In the history of Buddhism, most early forms of Buddhism only spread to regions which were broadly within the Indian cultural sphere, such as to Sri Lanka and parts of Southeast Asia which had adopted some aspects of Indian religion. Mahayana Buddhism, however, was much more successful at spreading out of the Indian cultural sphere into other regions, first into Central Asia and then into East Asia (China, Korea, Japan and Vietnam). When Theravada Buddhism spread out of its homeland in Sri Lanka, it did so by converting peoples who followed either Mahayana Buddhism or other Indian-influenced beliefs (Hindus or Hindo-Buddhists).

However, while Mahayana spread much more readily than Theravada, it's notable that followers of Theravada were much more resistant to conversion to other religions. Mahayana Buddhism spread widely, but many Mahayana adherents converted to other religions over time. For example, much of Afghanistan and Central Asia was Mahayana, but these regions slowly converted to Islam. Mahayana Buddhism (partially syncretic with Hinduism) was widespread over most of modern Indonesia and Malaysia, but those regions converted almost entirely to Islam (except for Bali); the Buddhism which survives in Malaysia today has been re-introduced by Chinese immigrants. This trend has continued more recently, with significant Christian conversion from Mahayana in South Korea (though Mahayana remains a majority there).

In contrast to Mahayana, Theravada adherents have been much more resistant to conversion to other religions. In mainland Southeast Asia, while the Mahayana regions of Malaysia largely converted to Islam, the Theravada regions remained much more majority-Buddhist. Sri Lanka remains majority Theravada despite long contact with Muslim traders and some periods of Christian rule. This resistance to conversion has been notable even in Theravada regions where they are not the majority religion, such as Theravada minorities in southern Vietnam today.

All of this background leads to the what-if: what if an*Pagan Empire formed 200 years earlier and converted to Theravada soon afterward? This is perfectly possible from what we know of early Pagan history: the region was settled by Burmans who gradually migrated into the Irrawaddy Valley from Yunnan and nearby parts of modern China. They merged with the existing peoples (the Pyu) and set up groups of city-states and small principalities. Say a a capable ruler - call them *Anawrahta, for argument's sake - emerges in Pagan or one of its neighbours around AD 850 instead of AD 1044, and begins unifying the Irrawaddy Valley into a large state. *Anawrahta or one of their early successors converts to Theravada, and begins sponsoring it as their state religion.

With an earlier rise of Theravada under *Pagan rule, I expect that Theravada will do what it did historically and gradually spread among the neighbouring peoples by land and sea. Historically Theravada spread into the Khmer Empire - which had previously had Hinduism as the state religion - and gradually converted across social classes until Theravada was adopted as the state religion. ITTL, a similar spread will probably happen a couple of centuries earlier.

I'd also expect that Theravada will spread to the Srivijayan Empire in Sumatra, peninsular Malaysia and western Java, by a similar process to what happened to the Khmer. Historically, Srivijaya spread Mahayana Buddhism across much of modern Indonesia; ITTL many of those regions will become Theravada. This will lead to most of modern Indonesia and Malaysia becoming Theravada, still with syncretic elements from Mahayana and Hinduism. While Islam will probably still spread to the region via trade (as happened historically), I'd expect that Theravada will remain the majority religion over the region, though doubtless with Muslim minorities in some parts, particularly around trade ports.

Within the territory of modern Burma, the other big change of an earlier emergence of an *Pagan empire would be that the dynasty has longer to become established and form a common cultural zone before any *Mongols sweep over the region and destabilise it. The borders with the Khmer Empire would probably stay around where they were historically - logistics played a part there - but it would probably mean that parts of what historically became Yunnan province in China will become part of any Pagan successor state.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on other divergences?
 
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Might this allow for a greater spread of Theravada into Vietnam and maybe the Yue peoples of southern China? Or is that unlikely?
 
Might this allow for a greater spread of Theravada into Vietnam and maybe the Yue peoples of southern China? Or is that unlikely?
It's quite possible that Theravada will become more established in southern Vietnam (it was there to a degree in OTL) when it's still part of the Champa kingdom or city-states.

Northern Vietnam or southern China (outside of Yunnan) is less likely because the Mahayana Buddhism there was part of a cultural complex with Taoism and other traditional Chinese religious beliefs. Theravada didn't really map to that as easily as it did to the more Hindu-influenced forms of Buddhism present in the rest of SE Asia and Indonesia. I wouldn't call it totally impossible, but it doesn't seem very likely.
 
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