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WI: No Hunger Strikes

Gorrister

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Whether through it never being introduced in the first place (Whitelaw later wrote of his regret in putting it in place) or it never being rescinded by Rees, Special Category Status remains alive and well around the time of the Hunger Strikes IOTL (1977-1981). Or maybe the strikers take the advice of the IRA leadership and drop the strikes before they can catch on. Whatever works.

It's actually fairly hard to discuss this POD because of how severe the ramifications are for Northern Irish politics. The 1981 Hunger Strike helped the popularity of the IRA and contributed greatly to the rise of Sinn Féin, with Gerry Adams winning West Belfast in 83 against Gerry Fitt, the former SDLP leader who criticised the strikers.

But even earlier than that was the Fermanagh and South Tyrone by-election. Without Sands it's incredibly likely the nationalist vote would be divided between the SDLP's Austin Currie, Bernadette McAliskey, and Noel Maguire (the brother of the deceased MP). The possible Victor may be former UUP leader Harry West, at the time plotting a comeback, which in itself also has ramifications for unionist politics.

So - how does Northern Irish politics go forward without this?
 
One of the biggest changes to the history of Northern Ireland after the start of the conflict.

Might the attempt at setting up an Assembly in 1982 be brought forward without the hunger strikes? The rise of Sinn Féin following the Hunger Strikes owed much to the Irish Independence Party boycotting the OTL 1982 elections, but their own rise owed much to their support of the hunger strikers. Removal of the hunger strikes might allow the SDLP to remain the main party of nationalist support in Northern Ireland.

Another thought that occurs is how much the hunger strikes and in particular the election of Sands increased foreign opposition to UK involvement in Northern Ireland, particularly from the United States. Without the strikes, might we see less support from abroad for the IRA during the 1980s?
 
This is a big one, being a pivotal moment in the Republican movement, it's basically a mythological lodestone. Without it you have such a different IRA and Republicanism in general.

Couple of thoughts:

1) It's possible that it stunts the IRAs move towards solely political methods though that was always a point a lot of the Army Council knew was inevitable. However you may not have the buy-in of the Republican base without Sands victory.

2) Unless Thatcher does something else to rile the IRA (and that's perfectly likely) she may not become such a hate figure. Does that potentially rule out the Brighton Bomb? I'm not sure it does but it's possible.

As I said at the start this is a big one, the Hunger Strikes changed a lot and it's hard to Invision what the Republican movement looks like without it.
 
I think it would be interesting to see what the effects on Nationalist politics. As has been raised, the Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-election would probably end up going to Harry West and the UUP as the Nationalist vote would be split between Maguire's brother and perhaps Austin Currie. OTL the pseudo-successor to the old Nationalist Party - the Irish Independence Party (IIP), it made some gains in the local elections around the time of the hunger strikes. ITTL you'd probably see a lot less success for them in those elections - where they were quite strong in what would become West Tyrone. Perhaps this pushes them from their pro-abstentionist stance in the 1982 Assembly elections (if they even are called) and you could see some sort of showing for them at the ballot box. SF's strength in 1982 was really in areas where the IIP had done well - border areas in the west and in Fermanagh and Tyrone especially (not in Belfast where the old Nationalist Party was historically very weak). So thus having a more conservative Republican/hardline Nationalist party (I guess a good comparison is Kevin Boland's failed Aontacht Eireann party down south) is quite interesting with the potential butterflies it has for Norn politics. For the next general election (UK), you very well may seen the results generally similar to OTL, but perhaps the SDLP getting some more votes and maybe even scalping Jim Nicholson in Newry & Armagh and Enoch Powell in South Down - and maybe some sort of wildcard result in Mid Ulster which was exceptionally tight OTL. Down south it could have some fascinating butterflies for the 1981 general election. OTL the Anti-H Block grouping won about 3% of the vote, two TDs and polled well in various seats across the country. Without the hunger strikes, perhaps these votes go to Fianna Fail and along with SF-TWP's seat in Cork - which could tip the balance towards Haughey which makes the Dail even more of a mess. I don't believe that Dail would last, but it may produce enough votes to elect just a few more FF TDs to make Haughey's 'comeback' in February 1982 a bit more long lasting.
 
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