Let’s say that somehow, the Bolsheviks never come to power in Russia. Maybe the Provisional Government isn’t overthrown by the October Revolution. Maybe Vladimir Lenin is assassinated before he gets the chance to lead. Maybe something else happens entirely. How can dictatorial Bolshevik rule be avoided?
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WI: No Bolshevik-ruled Russia?
- Thread starter Bomster
- Start date
- Location
- Sandford, Gloucestershire
- Pronouns
- She/They
Let’s say that somehow, the Bolsheviks never come to power in Russia. Maybe the Provisional Government isn’t overthrown by the October Revolution. Maybe Vladimir Lenin is assassinated before he gets the chance to lead. Maybe something else happens entirely. How can dictatorial Bolshevik rule be avoided?
Just to say, this is the plot of the book "The Limpid Stream" By Jack Tindale on SLP. Although it more explores the outcome of no Bolsheviks rather than how that comes to be. I really recommend it
- Location
- Albany, NY
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Ive always been a big fan of one of @Space Oddity 's old projects from The Other Place where Lenin dies shortly after the RSDLP split and the party reunifies as basically a larger and more dynamic but fundamentally Menshivick organization.Let’s say that somehow, the Bolsheviks never come to power in Russia. Maybe the Provisional Government isn’t overthrown by the October Revolution. Maybe Vladimir Lenin is assassinated before he gets the chance to lead. Maybe something else happens entirely. How can dictatorial Bolshevik rule be avoided?
But what happens is explicitly tied to how it happens. There's a world of difference say between Kornilov winning and the Right SRs winning the power politics game.
JeffreyArchersnemesis
Active member
My first thought would be the Lvov government clamping down on the July Days much harder. In particular, Trotsky is killed (or arrested for a longer time or otherwise not free by October) and Lenin maybe incapacitated too such that the Bolsheviks end up being fatally divided between Zinovievites and Leninists.
I think even then the Provisional Government is going to have a lot of problems especially over the question of continued involvement in WW1. My very loose idea would be that maybe Russia would follow what OTL China did; fall into a certain kind of regional warlordism until united by a strongman (perhaps Tukhachevsky, for symmetry). I think that Russia/the USSR would be 'better' TTL in the sense that you would almost certainly butterfly away Stalinism but I don't think you'd see a flowering of Russian democracy: I generally go with the view that WW1 strangled an emergent parliamentary democracy in its crib before it could get its sea legs.
I think even then the Provisional Government is going to have a lot of problems especially over the question of continued involvement in WW1. My very loose idea would be that maybe Russia would follow what OTL China did; fall into a certain kind of regional warlordism until united by a strongman (perhaps Tukhachevsky, for symmetry). I think that Russia/the USSR would be 'better' TTL in the sense that you would almost certainly butterfly away Stalinism but I don't think you'd see a flowering of Russian democracy: I generally go with the view that WW1 strangled an emergent parliamentary democracy in its crib before it could get its sea legs.
napoleon IV
Sheer Animal Cunning of the Groundhog
- Location
- Washington, Douglass Commonwealth
- Pronouns
- he/him
There's a ton of ways that the Bolsheviks could have avoided taking power. As others have said, absent Lenin they probably would have reunited with the Mensheviks after the February Revolution, but the biggest other option is a socialist unity government (SR-Menshevik-Bolshevik) taking power. There were a bunch of proposals to do this between the revolutions (including a proposal on the day of the October Revolution), but they failed due to strategic and ideological differences between the moderate and radical socialists. However these differences were not totally unbridgeable. In particular if the Constituent Assembly had been elected and convened prior to the October Revolution there's a good chance of some sort of socialist coalition forming.
My first thought would be the Lvov government clamping down on the July Days much harder. In particular, Trotsky is killed (or arrested for a longer time or otherwise not free by October) and Lenin maybe incapacitated too such that the Bolsheviks end up being fatally divided between Zinovievites and Leninists.
I think even then the Provisional Government is going to have a lot of problems especially over the question of continued involvement in WW1. My very loose idea would be that maybe Russia would follow what OTL China did; fall into a certain kind of regional warlordism until united by a strongman (perhaps Tukhachevsky, for symmetry). I think that Russia/the USSR would be 'better' TTL in the sense that you would almost certainly butterfly away Stalinism but I don't think you'd see a flowering of Russian democracy: I generally go with the view that WW1 strangled an emergent parliamentary democracy in its crib before it could get its sea legs.
I kind of have to ask more about the last point.
JeffreyArchersnemesis
Active member
I kind of have to ask more about the last point.
Oof, I'm racing out of my comfort zone but here's the general narrative: the reforms following the 1905 Revolution had created the circumstances for a reasonably busy State Duma with a franchise that could at least be expanded upon. This was then thrown of course when the War started and Nicholas and conservatives at court then fully seized control of the government back more fully. (I'm summarising heavily, so forgive me...) From memory, Orlando Figes is probably the most prominent exponent of this view.
- Location
- Coventry
Oof, I'm racing out of my comfort zone but here's the general narrative: the reforms following the 1905 Revolution had created the circumstances for a reasonably busy State Duma with a franchise that could at least be expanded upon. This was then thrown of course when the War started and Nicholas and conservatives at court then fully seized control of the government back more fully. (I'm summarising heavily, so forgive me...) From memory, Orlando Figes is probably the most prominent exponent of this view.
From what I gather, the Tsar and his Ministers had worked pretty hard to cut the Duma out of State affairs between 1095 and 1917, which was a problem come Revolution because the largest democratically elected assembly in Russia found itself lacking in knowledge, authority and legitimacy.
There's a ton of ways that the Bolsheviks could have avoided taking power. As others have said, absent Lenin they probably would have reunited with the Mensheviks after the February Revolution, but the biggest other option is a socialist unity government (SR-Menshevik-Bolshevik) taking power. There were a bunch of proposals to do this between the revolutions (including a proposal on the day of the October Revolution), but they failed due to strategic and ideological differences between the moderate and radical socialists. However these differences were not totally unbridgeable. In particular if the Constituent Assembly had been elected and convened prior to the October Revolution there's a good chance of some sort of socialist coalition forming.
The problem is that most of the other socialists lacked the vision on the war, and that was the question of the day. The willingness to renege on all their promises to keep propping up the Kerensky government was the rest of it. But even if you manage to shake that up, the war remains a great division.
The assembly would be a disaster because the right-SR and Menshevik leadership were both solidly on a course of propping up the construction of a bourgeois system. I think the best hope would be for those parties' dissidents to remain in and stage an internal challenge rather than drift to the Bolsheviks (and be largely excluded from the slate elected to the constituent assembly as a result of the slow motion party divide in the SR).
Maybe a bigger fallout of the Kerensky self coup attempt could shake things up with the Mensheviks and SR?
Ricardolindo
Well-known member
- Location
- Portugal
The problem is that most of the other socialists lacked the vision on the war, and that was the question of the day. The willingness to renege on all their promises to keep propping up the Kerensky government was the rest of it. But even if you manage to shake that up, the war remains a great division.
The assembly would be a disaster because the right-SR and Menshevik leadership were both solidly on a course of propping up the construction of a bourgeois system. I think the best hope would be for those parties' dissidents to remain in and stage an internal challenge rather than drift to the Bolsheviks (and be largely excluded from the slate elected to the constituent assembly as a result of the slow motion party divide in the SR).
Maybe a bigger fallout of the Kerensky self coup attempt could shake things up with the Mensheviks and SR?
Even among radical socialists, before the Kerensky offensive, peace was a fringe idea. Even after the Kerensky offensive and the October Revolution, Lenin had a hard time making the Bolsheviks accept Brest-Litovsk. Also, one of the reasons the Left SRs broke with the Bolsheviks was the treaty.
Even among radical socialists, before the Kerensky offensive, peace was a fringe idea. Even after the Kerensky offensive and the October Revolution, Lenin had a hard time making the Bolsheviks accept Brest-Litovsk. Also, one of the reasons the Left SRs broke with the Bolsheviks was the treaty.
Yep. It was also a necessary idea. Anything else is likely to lead into catastrophic disaster.
The left SR broke over the extent of the concessions rather than peace because most non Lenin people had a lot of delusions about how good of a peace they could get.
I had a thought for a POD: what if Kerensky had decided to escalate over the soviets' refusal to send the Petrograd garrison to the front? I could see it being a strong parallel with Ebert's attempt at breaking up the VMD and the way it precipitated the spartacist uprising. An abortive left rising too early could easily result in a (awful) non Bolshevik Russia.