WI: Conservatives win 10 fewer seats in 2017

[Dom]

<- Sarah Olneys face in this TL

Heart reacs olney

 

[OwenM]

Would the Lib Dems just abstaining in the interests of government stability on the Queen's Speech, it's purely down to the voters who that benefited, enable a Tory-DUP deal?

 

[AgentRudda]

It's Tim at this point. But FWIW, yes, I can see him propping up May more quickly than Jez. Though if the two men did pull off a deal, it wouldn't be the first photo op of Jez making friends with a homophobe amirite

You're right, and actually I think it helps Vince (if he does become leader) because it wasn't him who lead the party through the Aye lobbies.

 

[AgentRudda]

Would the Lib Dems just abstaining in the interests of government stability on the Queen's Speech, it's purely down to the voters who that benefited, enable a Tory-DUP deal?

I suppose it depends on the numbers. If abstaining means that a government can be formed, at least to last the summer, then they'd go for that as an option. Labour would still blast them for not toppling the Tories, though. Abstention could be seen similar to when Labour abstain in the Welfare Bill during the 2015 Labour leadership election.

 

[Alex Richards]

Would the Lib Dems have the money to contest a second election?

Depends on the constituency, but there would be a lot of ones where the answer is no.

I would expect most of the East Midlands to just not have a Lib Dem candidate unless the national party funds it.

Would the Lib Dems just abstaining in the interests of government stability on the Queen's Speech, it's purely down to the voters who that benefited, enable a Tory-DUP deal?

Probably.

This is one of those occasions where there really isn't a good option for the Lib Dems.

 

[AndyC]

After they've just had a grinding slog of an election where @iainbhx was talking about total wipeout being a possibility, but to their relief have just barely made it out with 12 seats on polling day even those they lost some of the 8 won in 2015 and Richmond Park?

Really?

When a deal with either party would be active suicide, yes.
Given the choice of "fatal" and "exhausting and painful", the latter wins.
In practice, I'd imagine the official line to be "we will not make any deals; we will vote on a vote-by-vote basis depending on our view of the merits of each division".
I'd also expect it to be "we will abstain on any confidence or no-confidence votes, whichever party is in Government - we will hold either to account instead"

 

[Alex Richards]

When a deal with either party would be active suicide, yes.
Given the choice of "fatal" and "exhausting and painful", the latter wins.
In practice, I'd imagine the official line to be "we will not make any deals; we will vote on a vote-by-vote basis depending on our view of the merits of each division".
I'd also expect it to be "we will abstain on any confidence or no-confidence votes, whichever party is in Government - we will hold either to account instead"

And then probably an extremely focused campaign when the next election comes- probably something like the 14 held seats (assuming my quick calculation of OTL's 12+Richmond and St. Ives is correct)- maybe even abandoning Westmorland if Timmy has gone off in a huff and isn't standing again- Ceredigion, NE Fife and probably another 4 for a 20 seat strategy.

Ironically the dearth of funding may well mean the party has a better night just by dint of everyone throwing everything where it can do the most help. I'd expect vote share to drop but number of seats to either hold steady or maybe see a couple of pickups.

 

[AgentRudda]

And then probably an extremely focused campaign when the next election comes- probably something like the 14 held seats (assuming my quick calculation of OTL's 12+Richmond and St. Ives is correct)- maybe even abandoning Westmorland if Timmy has gone off in a huff and isn't standing again- Ceredigion, NE Fife and probably another 4 for a 20 seat strategy.

Ironically the dearth of funding may well mean the party has a better night just by dint of everyone throwing everything where it can do the most help. I'd expect vote share to drop but number of seats to either hold steady or maybe see a couple of pickups.

If the Tories have a bad time of things, and especially if the narrative that the election is an opportunity to sweep away the Tory mess, there's every chance that a few seats will fall to the Lib Dems without them necessarily being targeted as priorities.

 

[Elektronaut]

Generally feel there's not enough due regard being given to the nature of referendum politics in this situation. If it's mathematically viable, the pressure of the political and economic establishment for Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP to form an anti-Brexit supply and confidence of chaos would be utterly, wholly enormous; and this would link up with the simple desire of their non-bedfellows in the Corbynista Twitterati. I don't see either group as saying 'okay, let's play the long game' - just not in their nature; one is too obsessive about getting rid of Brexit, the other will be too punch drunk with the prospect of government, even a totally hamstrung one.

That said; if the Tories come first in seats and votes then, on top of them being the incumbent government, they're firmly in the driving seat to begin with, and this brings this scenario to the interesting question of to what extent the pressure of the above will have on them. Though I think people are right to be cautious about the Lib Dems doing anything too firm with either party, I think people are going too far in the other direction, as they're actually in a very, very strong position against the Tories in these first exploratory talks. They can always do the old thing of saying 'Well, we can talk to Corbyn if you won't deal'. I don't see there being the slightest possibility of a coalition, both because the divide on Brexit is too great, and it would be fatal to the Libs, but there's a small possibility of some compromise on the process-side of Brexit, like a substantive vote on the deal or a referendum.

(It will be May presiding over this; there's literally, literally literally, just no time for a change of leader/confidence vote if the government is having to deal with a situation of needing to talk right away and head off Corbyn, though it's much, much more likely that she does the Brown 2010 thing of saying publicly 'I'll make the deal, then step aside')

I literally do not know how far a probably fatally mangled May could chance her arm on that score though. There's two competing strands at work for Tory MPs, needing to prevent Corbyn getting in, but being able to bring the party on whatever is offered to the Lib Dems. They may just be irreconcilable - that there is a possibility of the Lib Dems dealing, but that it's just impermissible to the Tory backbenches. And if the backbenches conclude - 'okay, we'll sell whatever the Lib Dems want for now, then go for that October election' - then presumably the Lib Dems would sense that too. A 'deal on Brexit' which lasts only a few months isn't a deal, it's a fiction, and it being throw aside by the Tories would be politically damaging to Lib Dem credibility.

I guess there's a possibility of the Lib Dems following the 'neither right, nor left, we vote ad hoc' thing mentioned above in the thread, and a tacit agreement that 'Well, we both reckon another election would be in our interests' but again - that runs into the fact of what I started with - the whole assembled forces of Remain would be braying for cancelling Brexit now, not gambling in October, and the pressure to do a deal while there's still a chance, would be enormous.

I can just about see a possibility of a Conservative - Lib Dem minimalist agreement, but I think it's the less likely outcome. I think it's far more likely that the Conservatives talk to the Lib Dems exhaustively but can't make anything fly because of the contradictions and forces I've gone over - it's just very hard to see Hard Brexit and No 2016 being able to meet in the middle, even on a very fleeting basis. I think the more likely result is an anti-Brexit confidence and supply of chaos headed by Labour, formed around something analogous to EFTA/EEA membership, (With commanding heights opt-out) taking us out but not really changing a thing in the basic relationship.

Brexit being done on this basis, with the Conservatives coming out of an election having won the plurality of seats and votes but then being outmanoeuvred by the other parties ('Political establishment'), including the dreaded SNP, in favour of REMAIN would send them absolutely balls-deep Leave-crazy. With nothing close to a majority of its own, just as is the case with the current government, Jez's government has no domestic agenda because it's impossible to pass one, disappointing/dispiriting/enraging the Corbynite Massive. The nature of what transpires for Remain Brexit will doubtless infuriate Labour Leave voters in the North. In consequence the Tories storm back at the next election under a Leave leader and the whole issue is re-opened again. Cameron saying he hoped to stop the Tories banging on about Europe is referenced on average nine times a day on SLP forums. Twitter mass denounces Corbyn as a Blairite and Owen Jones starts desperately googling Luxemburgism.

 

[Ncw8]

So exactly how impossible would a grand coalition between Labour and the Tories be? They might not agree on much else, but I can see Corbyn and May reaching a consensus on Brexit and bringing enough of their parties along to have a majority. So a coalition for just long enough to handle the Brexit negotiations and then another election.

 

[AgentRudda]

So exactly how impossible would a grand coalition between Labour and the Tories be? They might not agree on much else, but I can see Corbyn and May reaching a consensus on Brexit and bringing enough of their parties along to have a majority. So a coalition for just long enough to handle the Brexit negotiations and then another election.

GRAND COALITION IN UK CHECKLIST:
- Are there bombs dropping/about to drop from German planes over London: y/n

If you mean a de facto 'coalition' on Brexit, which is sort of OTL but not really, then it is a possibility, though a bit of a stretch. But the idea of any formal agreement between the two parties, or forming a government together, wouldn't even be considered for longer than a minute by either Labour or the Tories. Especially with Corbyn as Labour leader.

 

[napoleon IV]

So exactly how impossible would a grand coalition between Labour and the Tories be? They might not agree on much else, but I can see Corbyn and May reaching a consensus on Brexit and bringing enough of their parties along to have a majority. So a coalition for just long enough to handle the Brexit negotiations and then another election.

"The corporate puppet I take it"

"The dirty commie I presume"

 

[Skinny87]

View attachment 1466
"The corporate puppet I take it"

"The dirty commie I presume"

I'm sorry could you add labels I'm not sure who's saying what