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WI: Conservative-DUP Agreement 2015

Gorrister

Actually Existing Paisleyism
Pronouns
he/him
About almost a year late to posting this, but with the DUP recently in the news the question comes up; what if the Tories slipped up a little in 2015 and ended up just short of a majority? The obvious option would be to form a confidence and supply agreement with the Democratic Unionists. IOTL, plans were drawn up in case of Cameron losing the majority later in the parliament, but here he's going in without it. The circumstances behind this deal compared to IOTL's are also radically different, as there is no Brexit, no collapse of powersharing, no Corbyn, no Arlene Foster, etc.

So how does politics continue on with a Tory-DUP pact two years earlier?
 
The DUP said during the campaign they would want 2% defense spending, an eu referendum, and a reversal of the under occupancy penalty.

If leave still wins in the Brexit referendum, I could see the DUP losing support with NI voters seeing them as the reason for leaving the EU.
 
The DUP said during the campaign they would want 2% defense spending, an eu referendum, and a reversal of the under occupancy penalty.

If leave still wins in the Brexit referendum, I could see the DUP losing support with NI voters seeing them as the reason for leaving the EU.
Why would these voters defect from the DUP? I mean, they'd no doubt have managed to extract a load of Protestant Pork - perhaps more than from May as they might be able to play Cameron and Miliband off against each other - although the Miliband option would be rather more unwieldy. Also, there's still the Themmuns factor.
 
If we end up with CUPUK - DUP 2015 then EuRef would surely be very different in all sorts of ways.

Who knows what conditions latter would put on the campaign itself? Amusingly, we could even see a more active attempt by government to explain both options if it isn't allowed to endorse Remain. Which would not necessarily help or hinder either side as much as it would seem.

There would also be, by necessity, a much stronger national focus on Northern Ireland in the EuRef campaign if just because London based journalists would have more reason to look.

If the POD requires Tory slippage then this probably means slightly more Lib Dem MPs. Or more Labour in Scotland. All of which change things a bit.

A slightly stronger Labour Parliamentary Party might not see Corbyn even nominated. A stronger Scottish Labour Party might demand a less tepid Labour In effort (I acknowledge that many CLPs and members of course were not tepid at all).

A stronger Lib Dem Party in say the South West might change how the party campaigns post EuRef defeat. Etc etc
 
If we end up with CUPUK - DUP 2015 then EuRef would surely be very different in all sorts of ways.

Who knows what conditions latter would put on the campaign itself? Amusingly, we could even see a more active attempt by government to explain both options if it isn't allowed to endorse Remain. Which would not necessarily help or hinder either side as much as it would seem.

There would also be, by necessity, a much stronger national focus on Northern Ireland in the EuRef campaign if just because London based journalists would have more reason to look.

If the POD requires Tory slippage then this probably means slightly more Lib Dem MPs. Or more Labour in Scotland. All of which change things a bit.

A slightly stronger Labour Parliamentary Party might not see Corbyn even nominated. A stronger Scottish Labour Party might demand a less tepid Labour In effort (I acknowledge that many CLPs and members of course were not tepid at all).

A stronger Lib Dem Party in say the South West might change how the party campaigns post EuRef defeat. Etc etc

The DUP being in coalition would also affect the terms of the deal that Cameron tries to extract from the EU that he's going to the country with. And if the terms of Remain are different that could change the result of the referendum itself.
 
The DUP being in coalition would also affect the terms of the deal that Cameron tries to extract from the EU that he's going to the country with. And if the terms of Remain are different that could change the result of the referendum itself.

Interesting thought- might the DUP demanding some sort of 'concrete recognition of independence' lead to Cameron pulling the old 'hey we've got Blue Passports back?' move?
 
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