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WI: Clegg's plane goes down?

M

moth

Mothleton
Location
Portsmoth
So on the literal first page of the introduction to David Laws' memoirs Coalition, entitled Exit Poll, Laws mentions that on the day before the polling day of the 2010 General Election, Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg was flying home from John O' Groats to Sheffield in a Light Aircraft after a long day of campaigning in the highlands with his press secretary James McGrory. Clegg was anxious about this flight, as the plane would be going through a storm, and although he was reassured of his safety, he didn't feel safe, and consequently unlike McGrory, was awake for the whole flight. In our world, Clegg landed safely in Sheffield, went to bed with Miriam, and the next day won 57 seats in the GE and led the Lib Dems into the first Coalition Government since the war (if we don't count the Conservative-National Liberal Coalition's of the 50s), before having his reputation as Saint Nick dashed on the rocks on issues such as student loans and for capitulating to the Tories on far too much for too little gain.

But what if the plane had gone down in the storm and Clegg, McGrory, and the pilot had been killed?
 
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I think a lot is going to depend on exactly what is confirmed and how early- the Hallam poll can be cancelled by the Returning officer at any point up to the declaration if the death is confirmed, but exactly what effects occur will be affected by if its an overnight confirmation or mid-morning.

One certain butterfly- rumours will be circulating overnight, which almost certainly means Farage doesn't go on his Election Day flight. Or maybe he does and we end up with the utter panic as two party leaders suffer serious accidents from plane crashes within 24 hours.
 
Mixed bag for the Lib Dems, obviously with peoples' votes being tugged in one way or the other. On the one hand, I can see the Lib Dems benefiting from a sympathy vote, as Cleggmania has failed to dissipate. On the other, the party may suffer from a lack of certainty as the leadership changes and people decide to plump for the safer option of one of the big two.

Difficult to say what comes of that. But assuming a roughly similar seat count and an eventual Coalition similar to OTL I can see the Lib Dems enjoying a bit more benefit of the doubt. Issues of the coalition agreement leading to the Lib Dems breaking promises, could be excused to an extent, that they were forced into a compromising position due to the lack of a clear leader with a mandate, and as the coalition loses its shine, people might look back on Clegg as a missed opportunity.
 
Who do you reckon will step up to the plate? Tim Vs Vince leadership? Simon Hughes? So many big names lost as MPs get their chance. Who would get the best chance to sell themselves as Continuity Clegg?
 
Dom said:
Who do you reckon will step up to the plate? Tim Vs Vince leadership? Simon Hughes? So many big names lost as MPs get their chance. Who would get the best chance to sell themselves as Continuity Clegg?
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Tim's not really in any position to run for Leadership, and although Hughes might have a crack, I think Vince will be the best positioned to be Leader at the end of the day. He was Deputy at the time, and would have become Acting Leader; he may not run like he didn't in 2007, but being in Government might change that. The other continuity Clegg's would have been Laws and Huhne, but Laws went down in May 2010 over his expenses, which leaves Huhne- although if Huhne becomes Leader, he may not leave his wife, which may avoid him going down for perverting the course of justice, although his relationship with Trimingham may still be exposed.
 
I think Cable would be best-placed to become leader. Also, if the result is relatively similar, they'd need someone to negotiate with the Tories, and natural hierarchy would mean that Cable would be the person to lead those talks, and would likely be the one who took the party into government.

Which would make Vince Cable public enemy number one instead of Clegg.
 
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