WI: Benn's Alternative Economic Strategy becomes Labour Party policy

[Techdread]

This is very much a shot in the dark here, but I'm hoping to get some ideas from learned colleagues and friends on the subject. Suppose that Heath manages to win the Feb. '74 general election with a reduced majority as most of the polling at the time indicated. Still undergoing a major problem within the party itself, Heath either resigns or, more likely, is deposed and replaced with someone else who pursues a government policy closer to the early years of the Heath ministry and is willing to hold their nerve regarding rising unemployment *cut to a handbag being placed on the desk of No. 10 Downing St.*

Labour, meanwhile, lurches to the left after Wilson's second defeat and we have an earlier SDP-style defection form moderates and social democratic right-wingers. As the economy continues to be in crisis and the trade unions are still using their power to cause no end of problems for the Tory government, Labour adopts an equally radical proposal - essentially, Tony Benn's Alternative Economic Strategy.

My question is what would be the reaction, both domestically and internationally, to this proposal in addition to its potential implementation should Labour manage to win in the next general election?

 

[Mumby]

oooooooooo

assuming that this post-heath leadership experiments with monetarism and it goes to shit it could win

 

[AlfieJ]

Wilson giving up in 1974 would probably be a slightly better opportunity for Benn to win but nowhere near as good as his opportunity was in 1980/81. It would be tough to see him winning enough support within the PLP, but assuming this is done, the obvious response would be fucking mayhem.

I do think it could very much win provided Heath fucks up mostly as OTL and the anti-Benn splinter isn't actually that bad (bare in mind most ppl within Labour were willing to put up with 1973 Programme which was FAR FAR more left-wing than what was going on by 1983). The real issue would be his dealings with the civil service and the internal structures of power which proved to be a right bugger during the 70s anyway. Nevertheless, the AES was seen as an increasingly plausible economic programme around this time so Benn introducing it may not have been received with complete shock, but would certainly have created problems. The major sticking point of course was how the EEC would respond, as many argued that the import controls proposed would be incompatible with membership, which could either see us crashing out altogether, or perhaps a long, protracted legal wrangling with Europe not too dissimilar to what we're seeing right now.

A semi-Autarky would no doubt be the result if Benn got his plans through, which could actually prevent the more extreme declines in Britain's domestic manufacturing industries and perhaps the pro-business elements of the economic planning could have achieved something long-term in Britiain's economy, but if other social democratic parties and governments don't cop on quickly, its quite unimaginable to see the whole thing succeeding.

Nevertheless, as AES was just as radical a break from the post-war consensus as Thatcherism (and has been seen as the most plausible other route Britain could have gone down in the 1970s barring Malaise Forever) it could well have the potential to spark something more long-term and wide-ranigng....

 

[Mumby]

Wilson giving up in 1974 would probably be a slightly better opportunity for Benn to win but nowhere near as good as his opportunity was in 1980/81. It would be tough to see him winning enough support within the PLP, but assuming this is done, the obvious response would be fucking mayhem.

I do think it could very much win provided Heath fucks up mostly as OTL and the anti-Benn splinter isn't actually that bad (bare in mind most ppl within Labour were willing to put up with 1973 Programme which was FAR FAR more left-wing than what was going on by 1983). The real issue would be his dealings with the civil service and the internal structures of power which proved to be a right bugger during the 70s anyway. Nevertheless, the AES was seen as an increasingly plausible economic programme around this time so Benn introducing it may not have been received with complete shock, but would certainly have created problems. The major sticking point of course was how the EEC would respond, as many argued that the import controls proposed would be incompatible with membership, which could either see us crashing out altogether, or perhaps a long, protracted legal wrangling with Europe not too dissimilar to what we're seeing right now.

A semi-Autarky would no doubt be the result if Benn got his plans through, which could actually prevent the more extreme declines in Britain's domestic manufacturing industries and perhaps the pro-business elements of the economic planning could have achieved something long-term in Britiain's economy, but if other social democratic parties and governments don't cop on quickly, its quite unimaginable to see the whole thing succeeding.

Nevertheless, as AES was just as radical a break from the post-war consensus as Thatcherism (and has been seen as the most plausible other route Britain could have gone down in the 1970s barring Malaise Forever) it could well have the potential to spark something more long-term and wide-ranigng....

It could be that Benn is more of a Keith Joseph than a Maggie Thatcher.

 

[AlfieJ]

It could be that Benn is more of a Keith Joseph than a Maggie Thatcher.

M E A C H E R


But yeh it’s easy to forget that monetarism was a completely mental fringe ideology until suddenly it wasn’t, and a Benn leadership of Labour could well start the AES’s complete shift to the acceptable and eventually the orthodoxy.

 

[Mumby]

M E A C H E R


But yeh it’s easy to forget that monetarism was a completely mental fringe ideology until suddenly it wasn’t, and a Benn leadership of Labour could well start the AES’s complete shift to the acceptable and eventually the orthodoxy.

I agree with what you said about there needing to be a wider shift elsewhere - one of the massive props to Thatcherism IOTL was the presence of Reagan doing Very Similar Things in America which made everything she was doing seem sensible, so a big help could be some different result of the 1976 Presidential election - or even a different Watergate scandal that allows something wild to happen in 1980 so we have someone in the White House that Tony would be happy shaking hands with.

EDIT: I actually sketched out a 'Foot Fucking Rolls A Crit' thing where the Campaign for Democratic Socialisms links to the CIA are revealed which kills the SDP in the cradle and causes a scandal in the White House - perhaps if we have the OP's idea of a split in the 70s happen...

 

[Techdread]

The major sticking point of course was how the EEC would respond, as many argued that the import controls proposed would be incompatible with membership, which could either see us crashing out altogether, or perhaps a long, protracted legal wrangling with Europe not too dissimilar to what we're seeing right now.

Would it be a position of the EEC to outright throw Britain out in such a situation or would it become the unwanted figure within the club akin to Orban's Hungary in the EU today?

A semi-Autarky would no doubt be the result if Benn got his plans through, which could actually prevent the more extreme declines in Britain's domestic manufacturing industries and perhaps the pro-business elements of the economic planning could have achieved something long-term in Britiain's economy, but if other social democratic parties and governments don't cop on quickly, its quite unimaginable to see the whole thing succeeding.

I agree with what you said about there needing to be a wider shift elsewhere - one of the massive props to Thatcherism IOTL was the presence of Reagan doing Very Similar Things in America which made everything she was doing seem sensible, so a big help could be some different result of the 1976 Presidential election - or even a different Watergate scandal that allows something wild to happen in 1980 so we have someone in the White House that Tony would be happy shaking hands with

On the idea of needing outside/international help to 'normalise' those policies, where might be the most likely candidates to find such governments? I can't the US electing someone quite so in favour of government-intervention & regulation of the economy in the midst of the Cold War, especially with a less involved trade union movement and the likes of the New Left there not succeeding well in the form of McGovern in '72. Europe might have better placed potential allies, but most seemed in favour of the economic consensus up to that point as well.

 

[Mumby]

1969-1972: Richard Nixon (Republican)
1968 (with Spiro Agnew) def. Hubert Humphrey (Democratic), George Wallace (American Independent)
1972-1973: Spiro Agnew (Republican)
1973-1977: George McGovern (Democratic)
1972 (with Thomas Eagleton) def. Spiro Agnew [replacing Richard Nixon] (Republican), Pete McCloskey (Independent)

Just a little idea of how the AES could have an ally in the White House. Basically all the Watergate stuff comes out on the campaign trail and Nixon resigns some time after the Republican Convention, while at the same time Thomas Eagleton's treatments for depression never come out and McGovern never damages his campaign by backing Eagleton '1000%' and then three days later dumping him for Shriver. Finally Agnew's ignominious leap to the Presidency leads to a liberal Republican split.

 

[Techdread]

Just a little idea of how the AES could have an ally in the White House.

I love it. Any thoughts on how to with Benn being elected as PM around the late ‘70s/early ‘80s though? Elected as party leader in opposition is one thing but actually making government policy is something. Might we find allies away from the US? Not cliche ‘fellow traveller’ stuff, but could parts of Europe be open to AES approaches in other countries?

 

[Mumby]

I love it. Any thoughts on how to with Benn being elected as PM around the late ‘70s/early ‘80s though? Elected as party leader in opposition is one thing but actually making government policy is something. Might we find allies away from the US? Not cliche ‘fellow traveller’ stuff, but could parts of Europe be open to AES approaches in other countries?

Possibly an earlier, bloodier crumbling of Francoism in Spain?

 

[Mumby]

Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

1970-1975: Ted Heath (Conservative)
1970 (Majority) def. Harold Wilson (Labour), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1974 (Minority, with Liberal confidence and supply) def. Harold Wilson (Labour), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal), William Wolfe (Scottish National), Harry West (Ulster Unionist)
1975 Electoral Reform Referendum NO 71%, YES 29%
1975-1977: Keith Joseph (Conservative minority, with Ulster Unionist confidence and supply)
1977-1982: Michael Foot (Labour)
1977 (Majority) def. Keith Joseph (Conservative), Harry West (Ulster Unionist)

Presidents of the United States of America

1969-1972: Richard Nixon (Republican)
1968 (with Spiro Agnew) def. Hubert Humphrey (Democratic), George Wallace (American Independent)
1972-1973: Spiro Agnew (Republican)
1973-1981: George McGovern (Democratic)
1972 (with Thomas Eagleton) def. Spiro Agnew [replacing Richard Nixon] (Republican), Pete McCloskey (Independent)
1976 (with Thomas Eagleton) def. Ronald Reagan (Republican), Pete McCloskey (Reform)

So what happens here is that the Tories do emerge the largest party in Feb 1974 and Thorpe gives Heath confidence and supply in return for a referendum on electoral reform. This is roundly rejected by the British electorate, Heath tries to persuade Thorpe to stay on but with a leadership challenge brewing in the party he pulls out and Heath is backstabbed by the monetarist right. Thorpe staggers on with UUP confidence and supply until enough by-election defeats mean a confidence vote is called.

In the meantime, Wilson stood down in 1974 and in a bitter leadership election Foot won, to Conservative sighs of relief. Benn's AES is embraced by the Foot leadership, leading to a centrist split as the old stalwarts of the Campaign for Democratic Socialism fear that good old fashioned Keynesianism is under threat by the left and the right. An alliance of sorts is welded together by the post-Thorpe Liberals with this group, but is soon scuppered by events in America. McGovern's policy of 'openness', revealing the crimes of the Nixon Administration soon unveils CIA funding and support for the CDS, precipitating crisis on both sides of the pond and practically killing the Alliance in the cradle, not helped by the Thorpe scandal emerging.

The 1977 confidence vote is desperately narrow as many, such as the SNP vote for Joseph to keep Foot out, but it comes to nothing as the scattered remnants of the Liberals gather behind him. The general election delivers a comfortable majority for Foot and the AES while the Liberals fall below 5 seats and the SNP is nearly wiped off the map.

 

[Thande]

1970-1975: Ted Heath (Conservative)
1970 (Majority) def. Harold Wilson (Labour), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal)
1974 (Minority, with Liberal confidence and supply) def. Harold Wilson (Labour), Jeremy Thorpe (Liberal), William Wolfe (Scottish National), Harry West (Ulster Unionist)
1975 Electoral Reform Referendum NO 71%, YES 29%
1975-1977: Keith Joseph (Conservative minority, with Ulster Unionist confidence and supply)
1977-1982: Michael Foot (Labour)
1977 (Majority) def. Keith Joseph (Conservative), Harry West (Ulster Unionist)

1969-1972: Richard Nixon (Republican)
1968 (with Spiro Agnew) def. Hubert Humphrey (Democratic), George Wallace (American Independent)
1972-1973: Spiro Agnew (Republican)
1973-1981: George McGovern (Democratic)
1972 (with Thomas Eagleton) def. Spiro Agnew [replacing Richard Nixon] (Republican), Pete McCloskey (Independent)
1976 (with Thomas Eagleton) def. Ronald Reagan (Republican)

So what happens here is that the Tories do emerge the largest party in Feb 1974 and Thorpe gives Heath confidence and supply in return for a referendum on electoral reform. This is roundly rejected by the British electorate, Heath tries to persuade Thorpe to stay on but with a leadership challenge brewing in the party he pulls out and Heath is backstabbed by the monetarist right. Thorpe staggers on with UUP confidence and supply until enough by-election defeats mean a confidence vote is called.

In the meantime, Wilson stood down in 1974 and in a bitter leadership election Foot won, to Conservative sighs of relief. Benn's AES is embraced by the Foot leadership, leading to a centrist split as the old stalwarts of the Campaign for Democratic Socialism fear that good old fashioned Keynesianism is under threat by the left and the right. An alliance of sorts is welded together by the post-Thorpe Liberals with this group, but is soon scuppered by events in America. McGovern's policy of 'openness', revealing the crimes of the Nixon Administration soon unveils CIA funding and support for the CDS, precipitating crisis on both sides of the pond and practically killing the Alliance in the cradle, not helped by the Thorpe scandal emerging.

The 1977 confidence vote is desperately narrow as many, such as the SNP vote for Joseph to keep Foot out, but it comes to nothing as the scattered remnants of the Liberals gather behind him. The general election delivers a comfortable majority for Foot and the AES while the Liberals fall below 5 seats and the SNP is nearly wiped off the map.

I didn't spot the gap in between the two lists at first and thought "wait, what?"

 

[Mumby]

I didn't spot the gap in between the two lists at first and thought "wait, what?"

i do try and vary colours for american v british lists because ive had that issue before

 

[Techdread]

Possibly an earlier, bloodier crumbling of Francoism in Spain?

Post-Carnation Revolution Portugal perhaps? I know that neither of the Iberian nations are big economic powers, of course though.

 

[Nanwe]

Possibly an earlier, bloodier crumbling of Francoism in Spain?

Tough, Spain was too wealthy and too scarred by the civil war for any such big conflict, honestly.

 

[AndrewH]

I love it. Any thoughts on how to with Benn being elected as PM around the late ‘70s/early ‘80s though? Elected as party leader in opposition is one thing but actually making government policy is something. Might we find allies away from the US? Not cliche ‘fellow traveller’ stuff, but could parts of Europe be open to AES approaches in other countries?

I'm no expert on 20th Century Italian politics (paging @Comisario for that one), but I could see someone like Craxi being sympathetic towards Benn and the AES.

 

[Dan1988]

Tough, Spain was too wealthy and too scarred by the civil war for any such big conflict, honestly.

The latter also held for Greece (with theirs being much more recent and on top of the Nazis [+ Bulgarians and Mussolini] occupying and devastating the place), and yet there was bloodshed at the Polytechnic in 1973.

 

[aurinoko]

Mitterand victory in ‘74 and the implementation of the Common Programme is an obvious such “support” imo.

 

[Comisario]

I'm no expert on 20th Century Italian politics (paging @Comisario for that one), but I could see someone like Craxi being sympathetic towards Benn and the AES.

Craxi is actually not a particularly likely source of support. The man who made pro-Europeanism, Atlanticism, and the rather nebulous but always rightfully feared “modernisation” the foundations of his leadership would likely not find himself batting for a semi-autarkic economic programme in Britain. When Bettino got into government for the first time, the agenda of the PSI was based around deficit reduction, privatisation, giving Berlusconi whatever he wanted, and generally kowtowing to powerful interests in the name of being seen as “responsible” and “forward-thinking”.

 

[Techdread]

@Comisario - any prospective Italian party leaders/PMs who might support Benn’s AES from the outside?

It seems like we have a general view it’d need external/international support for the policy to have success, but what about the domestic reaction? And it’s general level of success in implemention?