WI Battle Of The Boyne Stuart Victory?

[Death's Companion]

This has been on my mind for a couple of days since the battle came up in discussion yesterday irl and upon looking into it as ever it seems ripe for PODs.

William was wounded on its eve and could very easily have been killed, James panicked and deployed his forces incorrectly, the order to retreat was probably not necessary etc.

So the question is simple enough James the shit gets a different name and decisively or less so defeats his son in law. Its probably safe to say the wider war continues for some time but the immediate consequences should be interesting and depending on the exact return a Stuart restoration could be possible.

 

[Alex Richards]

To be honest, if William bites the bullet I think the newly established Protestant ascendency just goes 'yay we've got rid of the difficult one, now we can just have the one we wanted in the first place' and continues backing Mary to the hilt. You might be able to get a Stuart Kingdom of Ireland out of this, but I struggle to see James managing to get the rest back.

 

[Gary Oswald]

By the time of the Boyne the Jacobite campaign in Ireland has already scored a lot of own goals. The complete loss of Ulster just did not need to happen and a more decisive leader than James could have secured Ireland already. And well most of James' infantry simply wasn't good enough because he hadn't properly trained or equipped them despite having adequate time.

You do feel like for James to have won he needed to be someone he wasn't.

But the battle could have been won certainly. As you say James doesn't split his army which allows more of his French troops to actually face battle, William gets killed rather than just winged before the battle so on and so forth.

So the Williamites retreat back to Ulster.

Well they'd done the same the previous year and James had refused to chase them, to the annoyance of his officers, but the Williamites couldn't properly supply their army and thousands died of disease and starvation in ulster. Does James do the same or does he chase them down this time? And if William is dead and the grand alliance is in risk of unravelling against France (it'd be up to Anthonie Heinsius you'd imagine to keep the Netherlands and England allied and the coalition in the fight, which he'd certainly try to do) does the Army even stay in Ireland or is it called back to England?

James is never going to be bold or decisive but he'll eventually have to attack into Ulster. You'd imagine he'd have the same problems as the pre boyne attacks though in that he doesn't have much cannon and Carrickfergis, Charlemont etc are tough castles while londondery will de defended to the death again.

But it's a campaign he should be able to win eventually. The problem is what happens next? James is in total control of Ireland but nothing else while the catholics in his government are pushing for stuff even James was reluctant to do because there's no protestants with them. Mary is still in charge on Great Britain and France is still fighting half of Europe. I don't think a deal is impossible but I think an independent Ireland is more likely than James been welcomed back as King.

 

[Death's Companion]

By the time of the Boyne the Jacobite campaign in Ireland has already scored a lot of own goals. The complete loss of Ulster just did not need to happen and a more decisive leader than James could have secured Ireland already. And well most of James' infantry simply wasn't good enough because he hadn't properly trained or equipped them despite having adequate time.

You do feel like for James to have won he needed to be someone he wasn't.

But the battle could have been won certainly. As you say James doesn't split his army which allows more of his French troops to actually face battle, William gets killed rather than just winged before the battle so on and so forth.

So the Williamites retreat back to Ulster.

Well they'd done the same the previous year and James had refused to chase them, to the annoyance of his officers, but the Williamites couldn't properly supply their army and thousands died of disease and starvation in ulster. Does James do the same or does he chase them down this time? And if William is dead and the grand alliance is in risk of unravelling against France (it'd be up to Anthonie Heinsius you'd imagine to keep the Netherlands and England allied and the coalition in the fight, which he'd certainly try to do) does the Army even stay in Ireland or is it called back to England?

James is never going to be bold or decisive but he'll eventually have to attack into Ulster. You'd imagine he'd have the same problems as the pre boyne attacks though in that he doesn't have much cannon and Carrickfergis, Charlemont etc are tough castles while londondery will de defended to the death again.

But it's a campaign he should be able to win eventually. The problem is what happens next? James is in total control of Ireland but nothing else while the catholics in his government are pushing for stuff even James was reluctant to do because there's no protestants with them. Mary is still in charge on Great Britain and France is still fighting half of Europe. I don't think a deal is impossible but I think an independent Ireland is more likely than James been welcomed back as King.

I think if William is killed the day before his army would probably withdraw to Ulster, maybe his officers decide to go for broke and attack anyway but that might take at least a day or two to sort things out and send word to the mainland. If they do attack given OTL a badly deployed army with collapsing morale managed to perform somewhat well against them in rearguard and holding actions I have to presume its a sharp defeat if they attack into the teeth of James' forces. A retreat back to Ulster after a defeat and with a dead King compounded by supply difficulties and presumably some kind of even half hearted pursuit would probably wreck the army as a fighting force even if it escaped destruction. Desertion, defections etc.

It is hard to imagine James successfully reconquering Britain after a drawn out campaign to secure Ireland but OTOH its not impossible that with William dying and the possible loss of a fairly major army that opportunities show up. The Stuarts managed to find supporters in their various attempts OTL one where they have success to boast off and a weakened enemy plausibly might gain them more.

Unfortunately that unknown quantity is probably going be the cause of most butterflies. Do the French back an invasion of the mainland? Is there an uprising somewhere that James feels the need to support? Does Mary offer to negotiate some kind of compromise.

Then again an independent Stuart Kingdom of Ireland is a very different world all of its own.

 

[Gary Oswald]

I think if William is killed the day before his army would probably withdraw to Ulster, maybe his officers decide to go for broke and attack anyway but that might take at least a day or two to sort things out and send word to the mainland. If they do attack given OTL a badly deployed army with collapsing morale managed to perform somewhat well against them in rearguard and holding actions I have to presume its a sharp defeat if they attack into the teeth of James' forces. A retreat back to Ulster after a defeat and with a dead King compounded by supply difficulties and presumably some kind of even half hearted pursuit would probably wreck the army as a fighting force even if it escaped destruction. Desertion, defections etc.

It is hard to imagine James successfully reconquering Britain after a drawn out campaign to secure Ireland but OTOH its not impossible that with William dying and the possible loss of a fairly major army that opportunities show up. The Stuarts managed to find supporters in their various attempts OTL one where they have success to boast off and a weakened enemy plausibly might gain them more.

Unfortunately that unknown quantity is probably going be the cause of most butterflies. Do the French back an invasion of the mainland? Is there an uprising somewhere that James feels the need to support? Does Mary offer to negotiate some kind of compromise.

Then again an independent Stuart Kingdom of Ireland is a very different world all of its own.

Good points.

The counter point to the Jacobites having more' credibility mind is so too do their opponents. It's not a German or Dutch King but a good Scottish protestant Queen from the Stuart line.

 

[Alex Richards]

Worth remembering William III was only agreed as joint-monarch in February- that whole thing may be discretely brushed under the carpet 'oh no he was always just a consort'.

 

[Death's Companion]

Good points.

The counter point to the Jacobites having more' credibility mind is so too do their opponents. It's not a German or Dutch King but a good Scottish protestant Queen from the Stuart line.

True then again there was an uprising in Scotland already in support of James already so its not like Mary totally closed off that avenue.

And said Queen apparently was always troubled by the manner of her father's removal and viewed personal misfortunes as punishment for her actions. In a world where her husband is dead, her father militarily successful she may be personally quite conflicted over opposing him for her right to the throne. Not saying she would just give up or anything but if James opened negotiations or began a major campaign her response is a bit challenging to plot out.

This is fairly early on in matters. I don't see OTL just reasserting itself immediately with a shrug.

 

[Gary Oswald]

True then again there was an uprising in Scotland already in support of James already so its not like Mary totally closed off that avenue.

And said Queen apparently was always troubled by the manner of her father's removal and viewed personal misfortunes as punishment for her actions. In a world where her husband is dead, her father militarily successful she may be personally quite conflicted over opposing him for her right to the throne. Not saying she would just give up or anything but if James opened negotiations or began a major campaign her response is a bit challenging to plot out.

This is fairly early on in matters. I don't see OTL just reasserting itself immediately with a shrug.

The idea of the protestant lords going 'thank god, William is dead now Mary can be the figurehead queen we always wanted' and then Mary turns up going 'god has punished me for disloyalty to my father by killing my husband, we need to surrender' is quite appealing.

 

[Charles EP M.]

So you've got Mary depressed & wishing to stop while the Lords don't want James back, James wanting it all back but mostly committed to holding Ireland, and Scotland in bloody turmoil - fun fun! Would any negotiation, even in the short term, work here (there's a sea in the way of Britain and Ireland after all), or is it going to end in one side having to sack the other?

Worth remembering William III was only agreed as joint-monarch in February- that whole thing may be discretely brushed under the carpet 'oh no he was always just a consort'.

"on this day, Mary II and William III Prince William"

 

[SenatorChickpea]

It'd be interesting to see how long you could stretch the chaos out for- ITTL, the seventeenth century could go down as England's (or Britain's) 'Time of Troubles.'
The equivalent of OTL's Whig historians creating a narrative that begins with the Gunpowder Plot and ends up folding in everything from the Wars of the Three Kingdoms to the Monmouth Rebellion....

 

[Death's Companion]

The idea of the protestant lords going 'thank god, William is dead now Mary can be the figurehead queen we always wanted' and then Mary turns up going 'god has punished me for disloyalty to my father by killing my husband, we need to surrender' is quite appealing.

She was an intelligent and formidable woman and a devoted Protestant so I imagine that if that is the route she took said Lords would not be just hung out to dry nor would she just set herself up for being deposed.


Jesus an Alternate History Novel set in Mary's Court in the year or so after this alternate battle would be absolutely fascinating. Imagine all the schemes and plots, palace coups and religious and personal questions happening as various factions try to get in with James, convince Mary to take a hardline, get the fuck out of the country, look for allies or just do...stuff.

If I had more than a wikipedia's knowledge of the subject it would definitely be something worth looking at.