When the World Held its Breath: Japan Strikes North

[lordroel]

Would it be true that China is a place that would benefit a Japan goes North strategy as it will put pressure of its own fronts they have with Japan, if the British can increase aid to them it will also help them.

 

[Tabac Iberez]

Would it be true that China is a place that would benefit a Japan goes North strategy as it will put pressure of its own fronts they have with Japan, if the British can increase aid to them it will also help them.

To be blunt, if Japan does anything other than attack China, it helps China. They're neck deep in the shitter, and they know it.

 

[Artaxerxes]

To be blunt, if Japan does anything other than attack China, it helps China. They're neck deep in the shitter, and they know it.

This is always going to be my favourite Japan/China analogy.

 

[Tabac Iberez]

This is always going to be my favourite Japan/China analogy.

This is frightfully accurate.

 

[Bonniecanuck]

Realise that I'm a bit late, but reading this takes me back to when I was doing an internship a couple summers ago and went to Harbin to do research at the Unit 731 Museum. I recalled a very particular segment that's on full display at the museum, exhibiting the first biological attack executed by the Japanese in combat during Khalkhin Gol.

Lacking any air superiority for an airborne delivery like they would eventually do over China, they instead formed a "suicide squad" in which several soldiers dumped 22.5 kg of a bacteria-laden "jelly" containing cholera, typhus, and dysentery into the Khalkha River in the hopes that the Soviets would drink from the water and they would fall sick.

What ended up happening was that even though the "suicide squad" went through rigorous decontamination after the mission, over 1,300 Japanese and Manchu soldiers ended up infected with dysentery, with many of them being sent back to the Home Islands for medical treatment. And few if any Soviet soldiers ended up infected in the process, because as it turned out the Red Army actually got their water and supplies from sources well behind the frontlines, and on top of that boiled the water before consuming, something which the IJA not only didn't consider, but weren't even doing themselves, relying on Ishii's patented water filters alone.

If that doesn't say something about how Japanese weapons of mass destruction would've hindered the Red Army, I don't know what else does.

By the way, as an aside, Ishii put so much confidence in his water filters, that during a demonstration for the Imperial Family, he pissed right into the filter, sipped the contents, and then offered it to the Emperor. At another demonstration, he made a huge show in front of the Army General Staff by licking salts that he claimed were from his piss, filtered. They sound so bizarre that he might as well be a JoJo villain, but at least two or three of the English-language sources on the subject do mention these events.

 

[The Red]

Realise that I'm a bit late, but reading this takes me back to when I was doing an internship a couple summers ago and went to Harbin to do research at the Unit 731 Museum. I recalled a very particular segment that's on full display at the museum, exhibiting the first biological attack executed by the Japanese in combat during Khalkhin Gol.

Lacking any air superiority for an airborne delivery like they would eventually do over China, they instead formed a "suicide squad" in which several soldiers dumped 22.5 kg of a bacteria-laden "jelly" containing cholera, typhus, and dysentery into the Khalkha River in the hopes that the Soviets would drink from the water and they would fall sick.

What ended up happening was that even though the "suicide squad" went through rigorous decontamination after the mission, over 1,300 Japanese and Manchu soldiers ended up infected with dysentery, with many of them being sent back to the Home Islands for medical treatment. And few if any Soviet soldiers ended up infected in the process, because as it turned out the Red Army actually got their water and supplies from sources well behind the frontlines, and on top of that boiled the water before consuming, something which the IJA not only didn't consider, but weren't even doing themselves, relying on Ishii's patented water filters alone.

If that doesn't say something about how Japanese weapons of mass destruction would've hindered the Red Army, I don't know what else does.

By the way, as an aside, Ishii put so much confidence in his water filters, that during a demonstration for the Imperial Family, he pissed right into the filter, sipped the contents, and then offered it to the Emperor. At another demonstration, he made a huge show in front of the Army General Staff by licking salts that he claimed were from his piss, filtered. They sound so bizarre that he might as well be a JoJo villain, but at least two or three of the English-language sources on the subject do mention these events.

I didn’t know about the story with the Emperor, that’s downright bizarre even for the Japanese Mengele.

Biological weapons are a peculiar type of evil, even worse than nuclear weapons in my opinion. I didn’t want to dwell on the potential implications too much but biochemical warfare breaking out between the Japanese and the Soviets could have morphed the entire conflict into an even greater nightmare it it expanded beyond that theatre. Germany and Japan were flattened by the end of the war but at least they weren’t twinned with Gruinard Island.

 

[Bonniecanuck]

I didn’t know about the story with the Emperor, that’s downright bizarre even for the Japanese Mengele.

Biological weapons are a peculiar type of evil, even worse than nuclear weapons in my opinion. I didn’t want to dwell on the potential implications too much but biochemical warfare breaking out between the Japanese and the Soviets could have morphed the entire conflict into an even greater nightmare it it expanded beyond that theatre. Germany and Japan were flattened by the end of the war but at least they weren’t twinned with Gruinard Island.

Trust me, Ishii was as psychopathic a manchild as one could find in history. One time, when he was going to having his funding scaled back, he went right up to the Minister of Finance with a jar he claimed was full of cholera and threatened to spill the contents onto his desk. When the Minister didn't budge, he then broke into his home to keep accosting him.

If I'm being honest, the fact that Japan's sole biological attack backfired so badly was probably a blessing in disguise. If the Soviets learned about the Japanese employing biological warfare, especially if the latter escalated and conducted more attacks, things could have gotten a lot more ugly.

 

[The Red]

If I'm being honest, the fact that Japan's sole biological attack backfired so badly was probably a blessing in disguise. If the Soviets learned about the Japanese employing biological warfare, especially if the latter escalated and conducted more attacks, things could have gotten a lot more ugly.

Definitely, to be honest it’s rather odd that the Kwantung Army complied with Tokyo’s demand for no use of aircraft despite still using bio-weapons. You’d think the latter would be more likely to escalate the situation!

 

[napoleon IV]

Definitely, to be honest it’s rather odd that the Kwantung Army complied with Tokyo’s demand for no use of aircraft despite still using bio-weapons. You’d think the latter would be more likely to escalate the situation!

Someone needs to write a book about Japanese ideology and war plans called What in God's Name Were You Thinking?

 

[Bonniecanuck]

Definitely, to be honest it’s rather odd that the Kwantung Army complied with Tokyo’s demand for no use of aircraft despite still using bio-weapons. You’d think the latter would be more likely to escalate the situation!

It was actually because the Soviets' air superiority over Khalkhin Gol that prevented them from deploying aircraft, since they risked being shot down and the payload being deployed behind the lines. The air superiority that Japan achieved over China by contrast allowed them to deploy aircraft, which was their primary means of deploying biological agents, notably in Ningbo in 1940, though they still did use ground troops as well.

 

[The Red]

It was actually because the Soviets' air superiority over Khalkhin Gol that prevented them from deploying aircraft, since they risked being shot down and the payload being deployed behind the lines. The air superiority that Japan achieved over China by contrast allowed them to deploy aircraft, which was their primary means of deploying biological agents, notably in Ningbo in 1940, though they still did use ground troops as well.

Would you have a source for that? I'm not saying you're wrong but I was always of the belief that the Kwantung Army was ordered not to use aircraft rather than being forcefully grounded by the VVS, it would be good to find out more.

 

[Bonniecanuck]

Would you have a source for that? I'm not saying you're wrong but I was always of the belief that the Kwantung Army was ordered not to use aircraft rather than being forcefully grounded by the VVS, it would be good to find out more.

I read it in Jin Chengmin's book Japanese Biological Warfare, which as far as I know is a Chinese-language-only source that hasn't yet been republished outside China. He is the curator of the Unit 731 Museum, which is on the site of the old Pingfang facility, and that line does also show up in the exhibit. Actually, it's probably quite likely that the reason that aircraft weren't deployed for the biological attack was probably a combination of both factors - the order to not deploy more aircraft, in addition to concern that the Soviets could down the delivery aircraft regardless of how safe the skies were for the Japanese, both probably made them rethink their plans.

With that said, I did work with Jin during my internship, and I can vouch for the thoroughness and integrity of his research. I got to crawl through the archives about the unit's activities and do some digitisation of some of the contents, and there's some pretty stunning details about things like Ishii's travels, the logistics of transporting biological weapons to the various sub-units in occupied China and Singapore, declassified U.S. Army post-war analyses of the program, etc.

 

[ChrisNuttall]

I must have missed this post the first time, it was recently boosted in Facebook which is when I saw it, so I apologise for the thread necromancy.

I can’t imagine any sane reason for the Japanese government to want to head north in 1941. It is possible the Kwantung army might have different ideas - if I recall correctly, the Japanese in China were actually very keen on heading north when the Germans looked likely to win the war, but the government manage to squash this before anything actually happened - and if they did get into a shooting match with the Russians their government might have trouble calming things down before the fighting gets out of control. That’s about the only reason I can imagine for someone actually trying this - perhaps they think the Germans will successfully take Moscow in 1941 and win the war and, rather like Mussolini, intend to grab what they can themselves before the peace talks.

It is vaguely possible that this will lead to Germany taking Moscow in 1941, but again - as you say - this strikes me as chancy. On the other hand, even if the Germans lose, this will make the Russians weaker in 1941/2 and probably make them less able to counter attack in early 1942. However, I suspect Stalin will partly write off the Far East until the Germans are largely defeated and then counter-attack in early 1945.

This does raise other issues. I don’t believe Churchill would declare war on Japan in 1941, not alone. It would be a very difficult issue. On one hand, the Japanese Navy would not be involved in the Russian war (not to any great extent) and that would be a great deal of power that could be brought to bear against the British Empire. The shortage of troops to actually take British territory would not be enough to keep the Japanese from driving the Royal Navy out of the region, at least for several years. On the other hand, the Japanese would be very reluctant to risk moving past the Philippines and leaving the United States in a position to interdict their shipping lanes. It is quite possible, in this timeline, that Japan would attack the United States several months earlier than OTL; it is also possible that they will gamble they can take the Dutch East Indies and hope the Americans will not try to keep them from shipping oil to the home islands.

If we assume Japan does not get entangled with the British and/or the Americans, the gamble might pay off for them if the Germans win the Russian war. In this timeline, there would be no Allied invasion of Normandy to draw away German forces from Russia, which means the Russians would win at a far higher cost or be forced to come to terms after the conflict finally burns itself out. Even so, however, there’s a real possibility that Stalin will agree to terms with Hitler (with no intention of keeping the deal any longer than necessary) and then turn on the Japanese to extract revenge. The moment the Russians bring their armoured might to bear, the Japanese are doomed. They were never a fair match for the Russians. We might assume they build better tanks in this timeline, after getting a taste of Russian power, but it will not be enough to save them. The Russians could take Manchuria and Korea and then find themselves unable to jump to the Japanese home islands. The war would effectively stalemate.

If we assume the British and Americans do join the Japanese war, the fighting in China would be more intense right from the start and the Russians would probably dominate very quickly in 1943… Assuming, of course, that Hitler declares war on America. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour looked very impressive in our world, at least at first, but in this world Japanese would not have made such a stunning attack. If that happens, would Hitler declare war in support of the Japanese? He had already let the Japanese down once badly by making an agreement with Stalin; he would hardly lose sleep over doing it again if he felt the Japanese weren’t worth the effort. It might even suit him to have Britain and America waging war in the Far East, keeping them from intervening in Europe.

Like you said, an unlikely turn of events. But quite an interesting one regardless.

Chris