Naturally I can't hold a candle to Mr Gabb's opus but I am glad I finally got round to fleshing out @Bolt451's Decisive Darkness: Germany idea.Dear Mr Hynes,
This article is clearly flawed as it fails to take into account the most obvious counterfactual scenario, specifically that as long as peace was achieved with THE GLORIOUS BRITISH EMPIRE by ensuring the warmonger Churchill was not (((paid off))), Germany could peacefully coexist with France and the USSR until it chose to strike at its leisure sometime in the 1950s. A 25,000 word rebuttal will be with the editor shortly for publication, based on an analysis of a classic AH title.
A B-29 flying from a modified RAF Manston would be able to hit almost any target in occupied Europe although the escort issue puts limitations on that. The Luftwaffe might ignore a mere three Allied bombers the first time round but shortly afterwards they're likely to react in force to every unidentified aircraft with everything they have available. The Mustangs could offer protection for any target west of Breslau and depending on how quickly the Twin Mustang could be introduced the escort-range problem would largely have been solved.The decision on which cities would have been nuclear targets depends, of course, on how long-range the bombers can reach.
Nuremberg feels like it would be the most likely pick, symbolic as you say, also a lot of industry there and a lot of wooden structures that made it a keen target for the RAF IOTL. I suppose a lot would depend on what targets hadn't alreayd been heavily bombed conventionally, that is if the combined bomber offensive hadn't been abandoned ITTL due to a stronger Luftwaffe and more 88's available.Nuremberg would have been high on the list if practical for the same reasons the Post-War trials were held there. I suspect Hamburg, Cologne and the Ruhr would have been likely as well.