What If Friedrich III Had Lived?

[Kato]

Crown Prince Wilhelm, who was raised by his grandfather's appointed men, having been taken away from his parents due to their liberalism, will still be the extremist reactionary waiting in the wings who will reverse course on anything his father does that he possibly can the second he gets on the throne, meaning that the conservative and reactionary Junkers will always have good reason to resist -- because they have the prospect of one of their own taking back the throne as long as they're patient and headstrong.

This is always the elephant in the room with the more utopian FredIII scenarios isn't it? A shadow court forming around the heir to the throne is the rule rather than the exception, and a healthier Frederick who lives as exceptionally long as either his father (90) or his son (82) is still dead by 1921 latest - with a brooding and aging Crown Prince in a hurry waiting to take over.

The counter scenario, of William I dying sooner opens up a lot of possibilities, and its odd that longer reign scenarios for Frederick seem to always focus on extending the end date.

Okay, let's not ruin ourselves building a Navy, they'll keep the sea lanes open and they will chase off the French or the Russians if they interfere with our trade.

It seems to me that the problem with this is that enough cruisers to realistically defend the sea lanes between Germany, her overseas markets, and her colonial possessions from Namibia to Samoa and Tsingtao looks - from a British perspective - like enough cruisers to threaten British sea lanes and bombard colonial possessions from Newfoundland to Dunedin. Some of that will be entirely paranoia on the British part, but some will just reflect that defense = potential projected offense in the naval warfare of the era.

Unless the German Navy is limited to nothing more than patrol boats, torpedo boats, mines, and coastal batteries; it feels to me like its build up to an effective defense force will be perceived as a threat in relative terms, and that anything less will require ceding supremacy over the Baltic to Russia.

 

[Venocara]

A much more interesting concept, which I think I explored in a list once but I can't find it at the moment, is if instead Wilhelm I dies much younger, with Friedrich III coming to the throne that much sooner and being in a position to shape Prussia long before there is a German Empire (if one comes at all; the German Empire as we know it is a fundamentally Bismarckian development, even if Bismarck himself didn't strictly want that development to occur as it did, and Friedrich III is not going to lend royal influence to him to build that strategy), and instead ruling a less certain Junker class not so drunk on victory and still looking over their shoulders uneasily at 1848. And, also importantly, able to shape his own son.

To go the opposite way I think a very interesting POD would be the deaths of both Frederick III and Wilhelm II in quick succession (maybe using @Kaiser Julius' POD involving Annie Oakley in 1889). With this, Bismarck would have almost total control of Germany considering the fact that Wilhelm III wouldn't be of age until 1900. Bismarck knows how important it is to keep Britain and indeed Russia onside, so much so that if Bismarck is able to retain power until his death he just may be able to negotiate an alliance with the Germanophile Marquess of Salisbury without Wilhelm around to ruin that, and if it was necessary to suppress the growth of the Imperial German Navy to do that then Bismarck would do it.

 

[Kato]

To go the opposite way I think a very interesting POD would be the deaths of both Frederick III and Wilhelm II in quick succession

The 'flu pandemics of 1889-1895 are really under-explored for this kind of scenario. Britain's Albert Victor was among those who died from it - no reason it might not have been other heirs and would-be world leaders.

Wikipedia for some reason counts Wilhelm I (1797-1888) as a survivor of a pandemic that didn't begin until October 1889. Not sure how they've reckoned that. I mean, technically yes he did have a certain immunity to it by then.

 

[Ciclavex]

This is always the elephant in the room with the more utopian FredIII scenarios isn't it? A shadow court forming around the heir to the throne is the rule rather than the exception, and a healthier Frederick who lives as exceptionally long as either his father (90) or his son (82) is still dead by 1921 latest - with a brooding and aging Crown Prince in a hurry waiting to take over.

The counter scenario, of William I dying sooner opens up a lot of possibilities, and its odd that longer reign scenarios for Frederick seem to always focus on extending the end date.

I found the list I did exploring this, with Frederick III dying on schedule but with his father predeceasing his uncle. German unification eventually happens during Wilhelm II, no numeral ITTL, with a "President of the German Union" being whichever German king or queen has ruled their kingdom the longest, keeping all dates of death and named individuals as OTL except that I renamed OTL Crown Prince Wilhelm after Frederick, given a better relationship between his father and grandfather, and the obvious with the point of departure.

EDIT: It's obviously butterfly-murder and not the likely outcome of such a change, of course. I'd be very interested to see anyone take up the concept, though.

 

[Kato]

I found the list I did exploring this, with Frederick III dying on schedule but with his father predeceasing his uncle. German unification eventually happens during Wilhelm II, no numeral ITTL, with a "President of the German Union" being whichever German king or queen has ruled their kingdom the longest, keeping all dates of death and named individuals as OTL except that I renamed OTL Crown Prince Wilhelm after Frederick, given a better relationship between his father and grandfather, and the obvious with the point of departure.

EDIT: It's obviously butterfly-murder and not the likely outcome of such a change, of course. I'd be very interested to see anyone take up the concept, though.

Ah, I thought there was a small ring of familiarity - and there's me on the 'like' list for the original post.

 

[Gary Oswald]

'Es Geloybte Aretz' over on the other place had Wilhelm II die of an accident in 1888 and make it the year of four emperors.

 

[Thande]

This is a very good point - contemporary British Invasion Literature seems to pivot almost immediately to primarily German antagonists from 1871. They just handwave the plausibly of the Wilhelm I coastal patrol boat navy doing anything more than sinking.

From what I saw when doing research on this, there were a few German-targeted invasion literature pieces just after 1870, but then it switched back to the French quite consistently until Wilhelm II started building battleships.

 

[The Red]

From what I saw when doing research on this, there were a few German-targeted invasion literature pieces just after 1870, but then it switched back to the French quite consistently until Wilhelm II started building battleships.

Even then didn't the most famous ones usually deal with the Germans trying to use subterfuge to gain an advantage, Riddle of the Sands, Thirty Nine Steps etc? And then there's Whinfrey's Last Case where they're fiendishly trying to avoid a war altogether.

 

[Redolegna]

The French Navy covered itself in glory in 1870 by... raiding a bit the German North Sea coast. And then was stuck because there was no enemy for it to chase. A plan on dropping marsouins (not porpoises. Infanterie de marine) was shelved.

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

The French Navy covered itself in glory in 1870 by... raiding a bit the German North Sea coast. And then was stuck because there was no enemy for it to chase. A plan on dropping marsouins (not porpoises. Infanterie de marine) was shelved.

Couldn't they have bombarded Hamburg or Bremen or somesuch?

 

[Redolegna]

Couldn't they have bombarded Hamburg or Bremen or somesuch?

Land fortification guns better than naval guns.

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

Land fortification guns better than naval guns.

Ah yes of course.